Big Blue View - Football Outsiders Q&A: Previewing the Giants upcoming seasonYour place for year-round New York Giants discussion and informationhttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47371/bigblueview_fave.png2014-09-04T12:00:08-04:00http://www.bigblueview.com/rss/stream/58146282014-09-04T12:00:08-04:002014-09-04T12:00:08-04:00Can Rashad Jennings be a 'bellcow' running back?
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<img alt="Rashad Jennings takes a handoff from Eli Manning" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/xtDjvAVFZ6xckPX0sQ827qjpq9g=/0x80:4000x2747/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/37903768/454306432.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Rashad Jennings takes a handoff from Eli Manning | Jeff Zelevansky</figcaption>
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<p>Can Rashad Jennings carry the workload for the Giants as a No. 1 running back? Football Outsiders weighs in.</p>
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</div> <p>As part of the release of the 2014 Football Outsiders Almanac, which <a style="background-color: #ffffff;" href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.footballoutsiders.com%2Fproducts&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNFDIhdmooHOZvCdPB9WPOwwH3vUcQ" target="_blank">can be purchased as a PDF</a> or <a style="background-color: #ffffff;" href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2FFootball-Outsiders-Almanac-2014-Essential%2Fdp%2F1500628026%2F&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNEaPdakZOdtbOcQDpBWKMfrPp9hbA">at Amazon</a>, Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders recently answered several questions about the <a style="background-color: #ffffff;" class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.bigblueview.com/">New York Giants</a>. Some of those answers have already appeared here, and <a style="background-color: #ffffff;" href="http://www.bigblueview.com/2014/8/20/6050587/football-outsiders-qa-previewing-the-giants-upcoming-season" target="_blank">you can find them in our StoryStream</a>.</p>
<p>Today we look at the last of the five questions Kacsmar answered for us. This one has to do with what the Giants can expect from running back <span>Rashad Jennings</span>.</p>
<p><b>Ed: Rashad Jennings, now 29, has never been a ‘bellcow' running back. Can he be one, and can you point to other examples of players who became featured backs this far into their careers?</b></p>
<p><b>Kacsmar:</b>: Jennings was "old" for a rookie at 24, and he sat behind <span>Maurice Jones-Drew</span> in Jacksonville when he was still a great back. That explains a lot of the lack of wear and tear, and he performed admirably in Oakland last year with a musical chairs offensive line. After all the running back injuries the Giants have had the last two seasons, I think Jennings will be a welcome addition and he'll take on a considerable workload.<br> <br>Jennings is 29 this season, which is when many backs start to decline, but can still be productive for a few years. He has 387 career carries for 1,677 yards. Stardom is not a likely projection here, but could he run for 1,200 yards each of the next two years? I don't see why not, unless <span>Andre Williams</span> is better than we think.<br> <br>I tried to find some guys who had a large percentage of their career rushing yards come after age 28. MacArthur Lane got a late start in 1968. He rushed for 3,512 yards after 29, but his best season was a year before at age 28. He wasn't a workhorse. Christian Okoye was the man in Kansas City, but he too had his breakout year (1989) at age 28. <span>Priest Holmes</span> rushed for 55.2 percent of his career yards after 28, but he's yet another back with a breakout season at age 28. Technically, Jennings had a breakout year at 28 too, but we're obviously expecting a bigger impact this season.<br> <br>The best example may be John Henry Johnson, who is in the Hall of Fame. Before 29, he had 357 carries for 1,672 yards, which is nearly identical to Jennings. Johnson didn't break out until he went to Pittsburgh and rushed for 4,370 yards at ages 31-35. That makes Johnson one of the best "old backs" in NFL history, but that was an example from 50 years ago.<br> <br>On the bright side, Giants fans have watched the best of <span>Tiki Barber</span> late in his career, and Ottis Anderson revived his career in 1989-1990 at ages 32-33. This is one position where guys can be late bloomers. Opportunity just has to knock.</p>
https://www.bigblueview.com/2014/9/4/6102759/football-outsiders-ny-giants-preview-rashad-jennings-profileEd Valentine2014-09-03T16:00:04-04:002014-09-03T16:00:04-04:00Can Johnathan Hankins replace Linval Joseph?
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<img alt="Johnathan Hankins" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/3yrhA656egc_QmzAvVkac5ztoqg=/0x80:4000x2747/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/37847946/20131227_pjc_aw3_235.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Johnathan Hankins | Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Wil Johnathan Hankins be up to the task of replacing Linval Joseph at defensive tackle? Football Outsiders weighs in on that question.</p>
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</div> <p>As part of the release of the 2014 Football Outsiders Almanac, which <a target="_blank" href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.footballoutsiders.com%2Fproducts&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNFDIhdmooHOZvCdPB9WPOwwH3vUcQ">can be purchased as a PDF</a> or <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2FFootball-Outsiders-Almanac-2014-Essential%2Fdp%2F1500628026%2F&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNEaPdakZOdtbOcQDpBWKMfrPp9hbA">at Amazon</a>, Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders recently answered several questions about the <a href="https://www.bigblueview.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">New York Giants</a>. Some of those answers have already appeared here, and <a target="_blank" href="http://www.bigblueview.com/2014/8/20/6050587/football-outsiders-qa-previewing-the-giants-upcoming-season">you can find them in our StoryStream</a><span>.</span></p>
<p>Today we turn our attention to the question of whether or not the Giants made the right move by letting defensive tackle Linval Joseph go in free agency to clear a path for 2013 second-round pick Johnathan Hankins.</p>
<p><b>Big Blue View: Will the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.bigblueview.com/">Giants</a> miss <span>Linval Joseph</span> more than they think, or do you believe the young players they have -- especially <span>Johnathan Hankins</span> -- can fill that void?</b></p>
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<p><b>Kacsmar: I</b>'ve always felt the defensive ends were the key to this defense. The interior is much more replaceable, and I don't think Joseph will be a huge loss. They still have a veteran in <span>Cullen Jenkins</span> who played well last year. Joseph had another very active season, but his metrics against the run dropped from 2012. We have a stat called "Stops" that represents the number of plays that prevent a "success" by the offense. Success is 45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent on second down and 100 percent on third/fourth down. Joseph's Stop Rate against the run fell to 64 percent last year (ranked 79th among defensive linemen). He was at 72 percent in 2012 (ranked 44th).<br> <br>Johnathan Hankins only faced 15 runs, but his Stop Rate was 93 percent. The reason teams draft players like Hankins in the second round is to eventually replace decent veterans like Joseph without a hitch. I don't think the Giants will have a problem here.</p>
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https://www.bigblueview.com/2014/9/3/6098631/football-outsiders-johnathan-hankins-can-replace-linval-joseph-ny-giants-newsEd Valentine2014-08-28T14:00:04-04:002014-08-28T14:00:04-04:00Football Outsiders weighs in on Rueben Randle
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<img alt="Rueben Randle" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/k_Wrd8N7nCZBWfLJamKZzsjPrv8=/0x110:4000x2777/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/37573132/20131227_pjc_aw3_273.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Rueben Randle | Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>As part of the release of the 2014 Football Outsiders Almanac, which <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.footballoutsiders.com%2Fproducts&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNFDIhdmooHOZvCdPB9WPOwwH3vUcQ" target="_blank">can be purchased as a PDF</a> or <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2FFootball-Outsiders-Almanac-2014-Essential%2Fdp%2F1500628026%2F&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNEaPdakZOdtbOcQDpBWKMfrPp9hbA" target="_blank">at Amazon</a>, Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders recently answered several questions about the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.bigblueview.com/">New York Giants</a>. Some of those answers have already appeared here, and <a href="http://www.bigblueview.com/2014/8/20/6050587/football-outsiders-qa-previewing-the-giants-upcoming-season" target="_blank">you can find them in our StoryStream</a>.</p>
<p>Today, we turn our attention to Kacsmar's answer to a question about wide receiver <span>Rueben Randle</span>.</p>
<p><b>Ed: You were, justifiably, critical [in this year's FO Almanac] of Rueben Randle for his play in 2013. Do you believe he can become a top-flight receiver, a guy who can take some pressure off <span>Victor Cruz</span>, in a revamped passing game that doesn't rely on so many option routes?</b></p>
<p><b>Scott Kacsmar/FO: </b>If Randle's third year isn't his best yet, then that will be very disappointing for the Giants. In his first two years, he's been the third or fourth wide receiver on the depth chart behind Victor Cruz, <span>Hakeem Nicks</span> and Domenik Hixon. If you're <span>Eli Manning</span> and you have those receivers, are you throwing to them or to a young Randle? So his previous lack of production is understandable. This season, Nicks is gone, Hixon's been gone and we still don't know what this offense has at tight end. The Giants drafted Odell Beckham Jr., who may end up taking over as the No. 2 behind Cruz, but whether Randle's second or third this year, he'll have to take a big step forward in this new offense.<br> <br>I don't really think the Giants expect they have a top-flight guy here, because why else would they draft Beckham at 12 when there were other needs on the board? On most teams, Randle's likely a low-end No. 2, high-end No. 3 wideout. Can he still get close to 1,000 yards and more touchdowns this year? Absolutely. The problem last year was Manning threw five interceptions to Randle on plays that involved miscommunication or the defense was tight and made a play on the ball. We marked 12 of Randle's incomplete targets as "Defensed" implying he didn't get great separation or positioning for the ball. Cruz had 12 such incompletions, but he also had 42 more targets, so this was more prevalent with Randle. One could also argue Manning probably shouldn't have forced some of these passes into good coverage.<br> <br>Otherwise, Randle made some big plays and did a solid job after the catch. Manning overthrew him 15 times too, and the quarterback's accuracy didn't help the 52 percent catch rate Randle had last year. Better quarterback play and a bigger role for Randle should produce a better season.</p>
https://www.bigblueview.com/2014/8/28/6078017/can-rueben-randle-become-a-star-for-the-giantsEd Valentine2014-08-22T12:00:09-04:002014-08-22T12:00:09-04:00Football Outsiders: Beatty should be better
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<img alt="Will Beatty" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/u37XAQKOfRZjCj6doM0JqVVmmzU=/0x370:2910x2310/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/37227618/20140109_kkt_ai5_527.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Will Beatty | Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>What happened to Will Beatty last season and what can Giants fans expect from him this season?</p> <p>As part of the release of the Football Outsiders 2014 Almanac FO's Scott Kacsmar has graciously answered a series of questions from Big Blue View about the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.bigblueview.com/">New York Giants</a>. We are posting the questions and answers one at a time. The first post in our series was a look at <span>Eli Manning</span> and the<a href="http://www.bigblueview.com/2014/8/18/6031701/football-outsiders-ny-giants-preview-eli-manning-70-percent"> 70 percent completion percentage goal</a>.</p>
<p>Today we turn our attention to expectations for another key member of the Giants offense -- left tackle Will Beatty. The 2013 season was an unexpectedly awful one for Beatty, who compounded the misfortune by breaking his leg in the Giants season finale. Here is our question about Beatty, along with Kacsmar's answer. As you will see, the question assumes <span>Geoff Schwartz</span> plays next to Beatty. I believe the answer has validity even if Schwartz moves to the opposite side and <span>Weston Richburg</span> slides in next to Beatty.</p>
<p><b>How much of <span>Will Beatty's</span> poor performance in 2013 can be pinned on the shuffling of players at left guard and the resulting bad play there? How much will he be helped by having Geoff Schwartz next to him?</b></p>
<p><b>Kacsmar: </b>These are great questions to analyze, but I first think we have to take a more general approach. We tend to view the offensive line as a unit, but some players still stand out more (for better or worse) than others. Does having a better player next to you really make your job easier or not? Beatty still had to block <span>DeMarcus Ware</span> and various other pass rushers.<br> <br><span>Mike Pouncey</span> (<a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.thephinsider.com/">Dolphins</a>) was one of the best centers in the league last year, but he had poor play all around him on the offensive line. Not only was <span>Richie Incognito</span> a piece of trash off the field, but he played like one too at left guard. Still, Pouncey was consistent despite what was around him.<br> <br>Maybe it's easier for centers since they're insulated by two guards. Tackles, unless they have a tight end helping, are pretty exposed on the edges, which is why they're the most valuable players on the line. Geoff Schwartz had a very good year at right guard for the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.arrowheadpride.com/">Chiefs</a>. He ranked as fourth-best at his position in blown blocks per snap in 2013. Did Schwartz make rookie <span>Eric Fisher</span>, the No. 1 overall pick, a better right tackle? No, Fisher was one of the worst right tackles in the league according to our game charting metrics for linemen. Now Schwartz will be next to Beatty at left guard, but I'm not sure that guarantees a big improvement. Schwartz has one season in his career where he started more than seven games, and that was for one of the worst offenses in recent years (2010 <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.catscratchreader.com/">Panthers</a>).<br> <br>Beatty should improve in 2014 if only because he can't play much worse than last year when he led all linemen in blown blocks for sacks (11.3). In 2013, Beatty had 35 blown blocks (averaged one per 28.8 snaps). In 2012, Beatty had 19 blown blocks (averaged one per 50.1 snaps). How much of that decline can be attributed to the changes next to him?<br> <br>Our current methods of tabulating blown blocks, which include shared blame when applicable, only go back to 2012. We'll need a lot more data to start drawing confident conclusions, but I'm not quick to say last year's performance was all about what was around Beatty. His track record isn't established enough to give him the benefit of the doubt. Similarly, I don't think we've seen enough from Schwartz (seven starts in 2013 after none in 2011-12) to guarantee he's the answer at left guard, let alone a fix for the left tackle.</p>
https://www.bigblueview.com/2014/8/22/6050621/football-outsiders-qa-expectations-for-will-beattyEd Valentine2014-08-18T14:32:39-04:002014-08-18T14:32:39-04:00Football Outsiders: 70% goal for Eli 'laughable'
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/olS2gd0uQVcbLx3aBQtK5qJIgws=/0x0:4000x2667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/37112340/453709876.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Joe Robbins</figcaption>
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<p>Can Eli Manning really complete 70 percent of his passes? Should that even be a goal for the Giants quarterback?</p> <p>With the regular season approaching the fine folks at Football Outsiders have agreed to answer some questions from each of the SB Nation team web sites. FO's Scott Kacsmar answered questions from Big Blue View. We will use each in a separate post between now and the beginning of the season, a sort of 'Football Outsiders Q&A series' if you will.</p>
<p>Let's start our series with a question about <span>Eli Manning</span> and completion percentage.</p>
<p><b>Ed: The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.bigblueview.com/">Giants</a> have set the ‘pie in the sky’ goal of 70 percent completions for Eli Manning. His career best is 62.9 percent. What do you see as a reasonable expectation for Manning in a new offense where short, quick throws are more prevalent?</b></p>
<p><b>FO's Scott Kacsmar:</b> I understand the "set high goals" thing, but this is one of the more laughable ones I've heard, right up there with 2,500 rushing yards in a season. Only a few quarterbacks have ever maintained 70 percent with <span>Drew Brees</span> doing it twice. Not even <span>Peyton Manning</span> has done it, so I don't see any way Eli Manning does that. Like you said, 62.9 percent is the highest he's ever had, and he's at 58.5 percent for his career.<br> <br>A positive, realistic goal for Eli would be 65 percent. His accuracy has always been inconsistent, but at his best we know he can get in a good rhythm capable of that number. I think Kevin Gilbride's offensive system played some part in his lower percentages. He throws a lot of vertical passes in an offense that hasn't relied on yards after catch (YAC). <span>Victor Cruz</span> didn't get a single wide receiver screen or smoke pass last year, which is a bit nutty if you consider his skillset and this era of football where teams are loading up with screens to substitute as short, more effective runs. So I think more short passes can get Eli's percentage up, but it's not going to matter if the plays aren't gaining good yardage. <span>David Carr</span> completed 68.3 percent of his passes in 2006, but he averaged 9.2 yards per completion and 6.3 yards per attempt. That's terrible, as was the Houston offense that season.<br> <br>If the Giants need precedent for something like this, then look at John Elway. In his 11th season (1993), which is where Eli's at now, he completed a career-high 63.2 percent of his passes. That was the only time in his career he hit 63 percent, and that was with a new coach/system. That was a great year for Elway, but on the flip side, there's Steve McNair. He never completed 63 percent until his last two years in Baltimore, but those weren't very effective seasons with an inability to stretch the field.<br> <br>I guess a stat like completion percentage stands out to people who aren't even very interested in stats, but I would rather hear a team talk about getting their quarterback to average a higher yards per attempt. That stat has always correlated well with winning football games. Setting a goal of at least 7.5 yards per attempt (something Eli's only done twice in his career) this season would likely help the offense score more points.</p>
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https://www.bigblueview.com/2014/8/18/6031701/football-outsiders-ny-giants-preview-eli-manning-70-percentEd Valentine