Big Blue View mailbag: Daniel Jones, J.J. McCarthy and more

Ed Helinski asks: Is Devin Singletary going to get a fair shot to start the season or will the Giants draft a running back and start all over at the position?

Ed says: The Giants gave Singletary a three-year, $16.5 million contract with $9.5 million guaranteed to be their lead back. I’m not sure why anyone would think they would give him that money and plan to have someone else be their primary back.

The Giants will supplement the position, perhaps both with a low-cost veteran free agent and a draft pick.

In my view, they are starting over at running back after Saquon Barkley moved on. That doesn’t mean they have to do it with a rookie.

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Richard Norato asks: What is going on with Jalin Hyatt? When he was drafted last year, there was some hype and hope that he could become a #1 receiver. I was under the impression that he had the talent, but wasn’t really ready to run NFL routes and also beat NFL press coverage. He did have some shining moments last year that showed he belongs in the NFL, but there is very little we are hearing about him in Giant plans for 2024. I would hope the organization is still high on him. What do you think?

Ed says: Richard, I will be accused of being snarky, but what would you expect to be going on with Jalin Hyatt right now? It is the offseason. The team is not together. There are no practices being held. There is nothing to hear.

The Giants remain optimistic about Hyatt’s future. He was a mid-round pick with a learning curve, and the Giants had an atrocious offensive line last year that didn’t allow them to get the ball down the field the way they might have liked.

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John Foti asks: Several weeks back you said that you liked Malik Nabers over Rome Odunze, but you clarified that by saying you hadn’t yet studied any film of Odunze. Can you elaborate on what made you put Odunze over Nabers after a more in-depth analysis?

Ed says: John, what I believe I said initially was that I was not thrilled about the idea of selecting WR3 with the sixth overall pick. I also admitted at the time that I hadn’t yet really studied Rome Odunze.

I am, I think, in the minority when it comes to those who prefer Odunze to Malik Nabers. I understand that. I might be right, I might be wrong. If the Giants select either of those players at No. 6 I think Giants fans should be thrilled.

My gut instinct, honestly, is that Brian Daboll probably would prefer Nabers if he had a choice. Nabers is an explosive playmaker who can separate both before and after he catches the ball, and GM Joe Schoen told me more than a year ago that Daboll values separation above all else.

I will absolutely admit that I have an affinity for the big, physical, contested catch receivers. I love the guys who are open even when they aren’t open, the ones you can just throw 50-50 balls to and trust to make a play. That’s what I see in Odunze. I see a player who perfectly complements what the Giants already have in speed guys like Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt, along with a shifty slot receiver like Wan’Dale Robinson.

There is also a consistency to Odunze’s game that I am attracted to. And what he did at the NFL Scouting Combine, continuing to do a drill over and over when he didn’t have, showed me a desire to be great that I find tremendously appealing.

It is just my personal preference.

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Video mailbag

Questions answered:

• Why didn’t the Giants trade Saquon Barkley?
• Has the onside kick been eliminated?
• Why didn’t the Giants trade for Justin Fields?
• What does the future hold for Joe Schoen, Brian Daboll?

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George Sawicki asks: In Bowen‘s 3-4 defense, with Thibodeaux and Burns playing primarily as outside linebackers, who do you see playing alongside Lawrence on the line?

Ed says: George, the Giants still have veteran Rakeem Nunez-Roches and young defensive tackles D.J. Davidson and Jordon Riley. I would expect them to add a defensive tackle at some point in the draft, and to continue to look for a low-cost veteran defensive tackle in free agency.

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David Joseph Womelsdorf: Ed, the NFL right tackle experiment is over for Evan Neal. I certainly would not give up on him, but I would move him to guard at the beginning of training camp. Write in Eluemunor as our starting right tackle. Nelson is a swing tackle and, frankly, Neal could also be a back up tackle. Shouldn’t we peel off the bandaid and do so in the beginning of training camp?

Ed says: David, the “experiment” as you call it might be over for you, and for a great many Giants fans. It is not, though, over for the Giants. First of all, it’s not an experiment. The Giants used the No. 7 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft on the kid to play right tackle. That’s a plan or a commitment, not an experiment.

GM Joe Schoen has said over and over and over, including this week at the NFL league meetings, that Neal will begin the year at right tackle and there are no plans to move him. That doesn’t mean the plan won’t change. One of the reasons Jermaine Eluemunor was signed in free agency is that he can be a capable right tackle. If the Giants don’t like what they see from Neal, they will make a change.

I do agree that if they do make a change I would rather see it sooner rather than later. I have said many times one of the problems they had on the offensive line in 2023 was that they didn’t settle on a starting group until just days before the season opener. That can’t happen again.

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Jay B asks: This is more of an ask than a specific question I guess. Not saying you are a big JJ McCarthy fan, but from what you have seen of the tape and combine can you please convince people like me who are somewhat skeptical that I’m out of my mind and that he would be a fantastic pick at 6? I admittedly have not watched him a ton but the things I read about him as having limited offensive usage and inaccuracy to his left which popped up in the combine. Are there some other elite skills there what’s his pocket awareness like? I want to get behind that pick and I hope he is great because I simply do not think Jones should be the future of this franchise and has been given ample opportunity to prove otherwise.

Ed says: Jay, I have already answered this question a number of times. I’m not banging the drum for McCarthy, simply making the point that a lot more goes into it than watching YouTube highlights. Here are some of the things I have already said on this topic:

• Last week’s mailbag
• A mailbag podcast
• My most recent mock draft
• Ex-GM Mike Tannenbaum on why the NFL loves McCarthy

The NFL likes a lot of things about McCarthy. They like his pedigree. They like the fact that he has won everywhere he has been. They like the fact that he doesn’t shrink from the spotlight. They like his athleticism. They like his age. They like his tools.

There is an understanding that there are question marks. None of these quarterbacks is a perfect prospect. You can nitpick all of them.

Via Dan Duggan, here is how GM Joe Schoen answered a question at the NFL league meetings about scouting quarterbacks. It tells you a lot of the things teams think about:

“I think you have to prioritize it all. It’s not, OK, if this guy fails at corner, we can move him to nickel or he’s at least our third tackle or our third nickel rusher. The margin for error is — the fail factor is you are either a backup that bounces around or you’re out of the league. It’s one thing to do the work in the fall and see the guy play, but I think the other half is equally as important, being around the player. How smart are they? Can they process information? Can they handle the market that we’re in? There’s a lot of unknowns. How are they going to face adversity? How are they going to react? It’s not just what you see on the film. That’s obviously important, but the other part is equally as important, specifically at that position.”

Here is a quick look by Brian Baldinger that details some of the things on film that attract NFL teams to McCarthy:

Will the NFL be right about McCarthy? Nobody knows. I keep saying that the hit rate on quarterbacks drafted in the first round is less than 50%, but that it is the most important position in sports and you have to keep swinging.

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Howard Denier asks: In reading the article linked below, I followed a link to the PFF’s explanation of WAR, and its variations, in section 3. I noticed that the safety position is ranked above the linebacker, edge, and defensive line positions. Assuming I am reading this correctly, can you explain letting a rising 24-year-old safety walk and signing a 26-year-old edge rusher? I am not saying I necessarily disagree with it, in fact I understand the strategy and importance of building offensive and defensive lines. I just don’t understand the strategy here. Do GMs follow some positional valuations, but not others? Is it something else?

Thanks for your answer.

Big Blue View rules for draft success, 2024 edition

It’s time to update the rules, and argue again about what they mean for the Giants

Read in Big Blue View: https://apple.news/Ab7umHuWTQLeRn9bnKOO6Hw

Ed says: Howard, the NFL basically defines premium positions as the ones that impact the passing game on an every-down basis. Quarterback, pass rusher, offensive tackle (the most important pass blockers), receiver and cornerback.

A safety is important, but generally doesn’t cover an opponent’s best receiver and because of positioning there are plays a safety is simply not truly involved in. Over The Cap has a chart on positional spending that shows how teams spend their money. Spotrac has a nice chart showing the midline for spending at each position, and which teams fall above/below it.

Edge defender (pass rusher) is simply a place where teams that believe in positional value, which the Giants under GM Joe Schoen absolutely do, are willing to spend. Safety is a position where teams often are not willing to spend.

I wish the Giants had been able to keep Xavier McKinney, and I said as much. McKinney is now the fourth-highest paid safety in football, and that simply is a place Schoen wasn’t willing to go. You sign McKinney and Saquon Barkley, you can’t make the trade for Brian Burns. You probably also can’t fortify the offensive line.

Schoen has been clear about where his priorities are, and I’m OK with that.

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Ken Julian asks: I’ve read that the Giants would be on the hook for $12.5 - $25 million in 2025 if Daniel Jones is injured at the start of that year (March). First, could you please clear up the exact details of the injury settlement in his contract? Second, if the Giants draft a QB in April, they’d be rostering 3 QBs (assuming DeVito is let go). At that point, do you believe that Joe Schoen should approach Jones’ agent to modify this injury language? For the Giants, what incentive would they have to start Jones over Lock and take the risk since their future QB (not Jones) is now on the team? For Jones, what benefit to his career prospects would come from sitting for one year? Wouldn’t he rather play to show prospective teams that he can be a resilient player?

Ed says: Ken, you aren’t the only one who needs clarification on that. I turned to Daniel Salib of the Cap & Trade newsletter for an explanation. He wrote:

“I believe it works as follows:

“$23 million of the 2025 base salary is guaranteed for injury at signing. $12 million of that 23 million is scheduled to vest into a full guarantee at the start of the 2025 league year (March 15th).

“So, if Jones is healthy and released before the $12 million vests to a full guarantee (March 15th), the giants are on the hook for none of that $23 million in guarantees.

“If Jones isn’t healthy, usually meaning he can’t pass a physical, then that 23m is guaranteed for injury and he’ll earn that as long as he’s on the roster and injured.

“If you wait for Jones to get healthy and release him, but you do so after March 15th, you’re on the hook for the $12 million that vested to a full guarantee but not the remaining 13 million in injury guarantees, since Jones is healthy at release in this scenario.

“All of this could set up a Russell Wilson like situation where Jones is benched because the giants want to release him healthy before March 15th, they’ll just be more careful about doing things than the way the broncos did. If the Giants release Jones after the $12 million vests to full, then that money will be subject to offsets if another team signs him and pays him. We saw Russell sign for the minimum because Denver still owed him so much money.”

I have been asked a few times about the idea of re-structuring that injury guarantee. Why would Jones do that? The guarantee is there for his protection.

Why would the Giants play Jones? To try and win games, of course. If they believe he is the guy who gives them the best chance to win games in 2024, he plays. At least until it becomes obvious that they will need to move on and the best course is to avoid paying the injury guarantee.

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Paul Miller asks: I think I’m inclined to pick (Rome) Odunze at 6 if he’s available but I’m also enamored of taking his Washington teammate Michael Penix. He might not be available to the Giants with the 47th pick in the second round so would their 2nd and 3rd round picks be enough to move them to the top of the second round if he’s still available.

Ed says: Paul, it might be. Where Penix will go in the draft is a mystery. He could go in the top half of Round 1. He could go on Day 2. Let’s see what the trade charts say. For the sake of our example, let’s say the Giants wanted to trade up from No. 47 to No. 33, the first pick of the second round that is currently owned by the Carolina Panthers. Would the 47th and 70th picks get that done?

The trade charts say the Panthers get slightly more value, which is probably what should happen since they are moving down.

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Bob Donnelly asks: To win games the offense needs to score points.

Last year the Giants notched a grand total of 25 offensive touchdowns over 17 games: ten rushing and fifteen passing. Saquon accounted for ten of those; six rushing and four receiving. Only one other rushing TD was by a running back (Breida) Jones and DeVito each had one. Slayton added four and Hodgins three of the receiving scores. Four others had a single TD reception. I’ll give “honorable mention” to Robinson who had both a rushing and receiving TD.

As some will be quick to point out DeVito lead with eight passing touchdowns followed by Taylor’s five and two for Jones.In your view with Saquon’s departure how is the offense to improve on last year’s poor scoring performance and who is going to step up to make that happen? To win games the offense needs to score points.

Last year the Giants notched a grand total of 25 offensive touchdowns over 17 games: 10 rushing and 15 passing. Saquon accounted for ten of those; six rushing and four receiving. Only one other rushing TD was by a running back (Breida) Jones and DeVito each had one. Slayton added four and Hodgins three of the receiving scores. Four others had a single TD reception. I’ll give “honorable mention” to Robinson who had both a rushing and receiving TD.

As some will be quick to point out DeVito lead with eight passing touchdowns followed by Taylor’s five and two for Jones.In your view with Saquon’s departure how is the offense to improve on last year’s poor scoring performance and who is going to step up to make that happen?

Ed says: Bob, Let me refer to something Jim Harbaugh said this week:

It’s about the offensive line. Giants’ co-owner John Mara said this week this it’s “ridiculous” that the Giants haven’t been able to build a functional offensive line. He’s right.

I have said for years that you build from the inside out. Play-making weapons don’t matter if you can’t block well enough to take advantage of them. I won’t say the Giants have “fixed” their offensive line. They have not. They have gone a long way toward improving it, though.

The Giants added two starters and three competent players who will compete for depth roles. Whether it’s Evan Neal, Jermaine Eluemunor or Matt Nelson, they believe they will get competent play at right tackle. They have options at guard, and a draft coming up where they can and almost certainly will add more talent there.

That is where the Giants start in revamping the offense. They should be fine at running back with Devin Singletary and whatever else they add. If they are able to add a dynamic wide receiver in the draft, that will also be a huge help.

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