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Progression or regression? Which will we see from Giants in 2023?

Most analysts expect regression

Carolina Panthers v New York Giants Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images

There is a little Rodney Dangerfield, the famous “I don’t get no respect” comedian, to the 2023 New York Giants.

They made the playoffs a year ago with a 9-7-1 record. They won a playoff game. They returned nearly all of a brilliant coaching staff. On paper, the roster is much better.

Yet, most NFL analysts are expecting regression rather than progression from the Giants during a season that begins on Sunday Night Football against the Dallas Cowboys. Most prognostications or power rankings you read have the Giants falling outside the playoffs. They opened as 3.5-point underdogs at home to the Cowboys in Sunday’s opener.

CBS Sports did an excellent job is summing up the potential 2023 ceiling and floor for the Giants:

Ceiling: 10-7, lose in divisional round

The Giants are a better team this year after overachieving last season in Year One under Brian Daboll. They did give Daniel Jones more options in the passing game, the biggest one being Darren Waller. Having Saquon Barkley under contract is also a major asset for the offense — and Jones going forward. The defensive interior arguably has the best duo in Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams, a unit that significantly improved under Wink Martindale. Adding Jalin Hyatt in the draft gives the Giants a downfield threat they badly needed. If Daniel Jones takes care of the football, the Giants will compete in the gauntlet of the NFC East.

Floor: 6-11, miss playoffs

This was a team that overachieved last season and could take a plunge, even with a better roster. Can Jones protect the football as well as he did last year? The Giants will still have to over-rely on Barkley, though they improved at wide receiver. The issue with the Giants wide receivers? There’s no game-changer at the position, which significantly hurts the offense’s ability to make big plays. New York is also going with two rookie cornerbacks in Deonte Banks and Tre Hawkins, which could be problematic for the quarterbacks they’ll face in the NFC East. The offensive line is improved, but there’s still questions on the interior. Thanks to playing so many good teams in the NFC East, some team in the division will falter. The Giants may be a year away from actually being a contender (again, this all comes down to how Jones plays).

Reasons they could progress

  • Daniel Jones takes a step forward and the improved play-making weapons around him lead to a more explosive offense.
  • Evan Neal takes a step forward, John Michael Schmitz justifies his second-round selection and the offensive line solidifies.
  • The defensive line, a weakness beyond Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams a year ago, is much deeper. Some think it is the best in football.
  • With the addition of Bobby Okereke and the versatile Isaiah Simmons the Giants have real NFL linebackers this season. The deeper front seven should improve the pass rush and the run defense.
  • Kayvon Thibodeaux takes a step forward, Azeez Ojulari remains healthy and the potential of what looks like it could be a game-wrecking duo of edge defenders is realized.

Reasons they could regress

  • The play-making weapons the Giants are counting on to make their offense more explosive — Darren Waller, Parris Campbell, Wan’Dale Robinson, Sterling Shepard, Saquon Barkley — have significant injury histories. Many of them are injured, limiting the offense.
  • Daniel Jones, weapons or no weapons, fails to take the step forward the organization counted on when it gave him a four-year, $160 million contract. The turnovers that plagued him early in his career pop up again as the Giants try to open up their passing offense.
  • The offensive line remains an issue as Neal, despite his offseason work to improve his body and his technique, shows that he might not be an NFL right tackle.
  • Every Giants’ victory last season except the 38-10 blowout of the Indianapolis Colts came via one score. Jones led four fourth-quarter comebacks and five game-winning drives. In his first three seasons, he had led only two fourth-quarter comebacks and three game-winning drives. The cyclical nature of those things could work against the Giants.
  • The schedule, whether you look at it by opponents’ 2022 winning percentage, 2023 expectations, travel and rest involved, whatever, is a difficult one.

Valentine’s View

I think getting to nine wins again, considering everything, would be an excellent season for the Giants. I think this is a seven- to nine-win year for the Giants. I will err on the side of being optimistic, and predict a playoff-less 9-8 season.

Regardless of the final record, I think Giants fans should feel good about the future of this team. The coaching staff and front office that are in place should make you confident that the Giants, no matter what happens in 2023, are going in the right direction.

Vote in the poll below and let us know if you think we will see regression or progression from the Giants, at least record-wise, in 2023.


What are you expecting from the Giants this season?

This poll is closed

  • 49%
    More than 9 wins
    (1193 votes)
  • 14%
    Less than 9 wins
    (348 votes)
  • 36%
    A second straight 9-win season
    (891 votes)
2432 votes total Vote Now