The New York Giants’ Week 4 showdown with the Seattle Seahawks is a study in the frustration of the Giants’ season. The Seahawks’ offense is flying high as expected after back-to-back 37-point outputs, while the Giants lament their unexpectedly flat offense. As poor as Seattle’s defense has been, allowing nearly 30 points per game, the Giants’ is worse, allowing nearly 33.
Given that setup heading into the game, it would make sense to expect a shootout. Still, the Giants’ offense hasn’t given enough indication that they can be trusted to put up points in any game. Still, perhaps Daniel Jones can quietly use the barbs from 49ers defenders as fuel for a bounce-back game.
Here are some of the best prop bets available for the Giants-Seahawks tilt based on both teams’ track records thus far. Injuries will play a significant role in these bets, as Andrew Thomas, Saquon Barkley, Charles Cross, Tariq Woolen, and Dre’Mont Jones are among the important players with injury designations.
1st NY Giants drive result: Offensive score (+130), Field goal attempt (+370), Field goal made (+475)
This bet depends on how granular you want to go. The important point here is that Seattle has given up offensive scores on the first drive of all three of their games, including two touchdowns and one 47-yard field goal. They haven’t exactly faced world-beating offenses, either, especially not the Andy Dalton-led Panthers. Therefore, expecting an offensive score from the Giants is very reasonable.
In two of the Giants’ three games, they’ve sustained possession on their first drive only to stall out. We know how that turned out against Dallas after an 11-play, nearly seven-minute drive. In San Francisco, it was a 12-play, 5½-minute trek culminating in a 44-yard field goal. So why not make that 3-for-4?
Graham Gano is still trustworthy despite that hooked 36-yarder against the Cowboys. He nailed a 57-yarder without incident against the 49ers and is going strong at age 36. If you’re going to go with the field goal attempt, then the field goal made is almost an automatic bet.
Darren Waller: Over 46.5 receiving yards (-115)
Through three games, the Seahawks have allowed an average of four receptions on 5.33 targets and 55.7 yards per game to tight ends. That includes five receptions for 63 yards to Sam LaPorta and three catches for 49 yards to Tyler Higbee. Carolina’s tight ends spread it around, but Darren Waller is clearly the Giants’ primary target at tight end, as he has 19 targets compared to Daniel Bellinger’s two.
While Waller has had a slow start to the season, nabbing just 12 catches for 132 yards, he’s still averaging 44 yards per game. Of course, that came primarily on the basis of his six-catch, 76-yard performance against Arizona, but the Seahawks’ defense has been kind to tight ends. I was burned by Waller in Week 1, but Seattle’s coverage is a far cry from Dallas’.
Daniel Jones: Under 33.5 rushing yards (-120)
I like to pick Daniel Jones on the over for rushing yards, but I’ll go with the under here for a couple of reasons. First of all, Seattle plays a zone-based defense, employing it the ninth-most in the NFL at 77.5% of the time. It is generally easier to take off against man coverage with the defense’s backs to the quarterback.
It’s hard to assess how Seattle’s defense performs against quarterback runs, as they’ve faced three rather immobile passers in Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and Andy Dalton. In 2022, their defense allowed 19.2 rush yards per game to quarterbacks (T-14th) and 4.08 yards per rush and attempt (18th). The only quarterback who exceeded 33.5 rushing yards against them was Kyler Murray, who did so in both Arizona-Seattle matchups. Jones himself rushed six times for 20 yards against Seattle last year.
This is not to say that Jones won’t exceed 33.5 rushing yards, but I would lean toward the under in this game. While he has gone over 33.5 rushing yards in two of his three games this year, I think he’ll have to air it out more in this one.
Giants to score between 21-30 points (+140)
Seattle has allowed 30, 31, and 27 points in their three games. The Giants have scored zero, 31, and 12. That makes for an interesting conundrum when determining the Giants’ point total. Perhaps I should just go with over 23.5 (-108), but I think the 21-30 band is more accurate.
In 2022, Seattle gave up between 21-30 points nine times, and the Giants scored in that band seven times—but not in their head-to-head matchup. This year, the Giants have struggled against two excellent defenses and exploded in the second half against a sneaky but still undermanned one. I like the odds that the Giants can open it up more in this game.
In particular, Jalin Hyatt and Darius Slayton can have a large impact. The Seahawks have given up 17 pass plays of 20+ yards, tied with the Chargers for the most in the NFL. Players like Adam Thielen, Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Chark, Josh Reynolds, Puka Nacua, and Tutu Atwell beat them for multiple explosive plays. I hesitate to go with the over on Slayton’s receiving yards (38.5, -115) given Jones’ aversion to throwing dep, but there’s a golden opportunity for the downfield passing game to thrive in this game and contribute to a large point total.
Giants not to record a sack (+650)
The Giants recorded their first two sacks of the season against Brock Purdy last week. Azeez Ojulari is injured, Kayvon Thibodeaux is nonexistent, and the blitzes are not getting home. Dexter Lawrence is still a beast in the middle (16.2% pressure rate, four quarterback hits) but can’t do it all on his own.
With +650 odds and a 13.3% implied probability, this is obviously not a very likely bet. But with a 31st-ranked 2.11% sack rate, the Giants would be expected to garner 0.79 sacks on Geno Smith’s average of 37.3 dropbacks. Seattle’s 4.63% offensive sack rate is the 10th-best in the NFL, as Smith has been sacked five times.
Additionally, the Giants have forced so few true pass sets that the opportunities to sack the quarterback are rarely there. Lawrence has just 25 true pass set pass rushes out of 80 total rushes (31.3%), and Thibodeaux has 18 out of 76 (23.7%).
I’m not saying that this is likely to happen, but I think it’s an interesting option until the Giants prove they can get to the quarterback.
Graham Gano: Over 2.5 extra points made (+160)
I think the Giants are going to score three touchdowns. I’ll go with the three extra points.
Geno Smith: Over 250.5 passing yards (-115)
After being limited to 112 passing yards in Week 1, Smith is back, putting up 328 and 296 passing yards in his last two games. Surprisingly, the Giants rank 18th with only 223.7 passing yards per game allowed, but that’s in part because they were blown out in two of their three contests and have faced 32.7 rush attempts per game, tied for the third-most, compared to 31.0 pass attempts per game, tied for the fifth-fewest.
The Giants are allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt right now, tied for the eighth-most. Smith is averaging 34.3 pass attempts per game, which would average out to 246.96 passing yards. He passed for just 212 yards against the Giants in 2022, which would lean toward the under. Still, with rookie cornerbacks and a nonexistent pass rush, I expect Geno to go over 250.5 passing yards in a shootout.
Same game parlay: Daniel Jones over 230.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns + Geno Smith over 250.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns (+420)
I don’t like any of the same-game parlay options for this game. Since I chose Jones under 33.5 rushing yards, though, that eliminates the Giants’ same-game parlay. I don’t think Kenneth Walker and Geno Smith and D.K. Metcalf will hit their yardage totals. This option is the most likely in a shootout, in my opinion.
Jones exploded for 321 passing yards and two touchdown passes against Arizona, while Smith had 328 passing yards and two touchdown passes against Detroit. Can they do it against each other? It seems possible to me.