DraftKings betting odds: Position of the NY Giants’ first-round pick

Can the 2023 NFL Draft just come already?

The weeks between the first wave of free agency and the draft are chock-full of speculation, rumors, mock drafts, hype, and lies.

Lots of lies.

At this point, we’ve endlessly speculated about which players the New York Giants could take with the 25th overall pick in the draft. Now, let’s talk about what’s really important: the moolah.

The betting odds on the position of the Giants’ first-round pick are unsurprising. However, the potential for a surprise position is quite high given the many roster needs and the lateness of their pick.

Let’s discuss some of the relevant DraftKings odds for the draft.

Safest pick: Wide receiver (-105)

Wide receiver is the favorite here for a reason. The Giants have a crowded room with Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, Parris Campbell, Wan’Dale Robinson, Sterling Shepard, Collin Johnson, Jeff Smith, David Sills, and Jamison Crowder. Still, they need another thumper in there, specifically on the outside.

The team has met with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers, Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison, Jalin Hyatt, and Marvin Mims, doing their due diligence on one receiver after another.

If the team does take a receiver at No. 25, the bigger question is who that player will be. Projections are all over the map. Receiver does remain a team need, though, so it makes sense that they’d go there in the first round.

Consensus mock draft pick: Offensive line (+380)

There is rarely much of a consensus by the time you hit the last third of the first round. However, NFL Mock Draft Database has center John Michael Schmitz going to the Giants at No. 25 in 14% of mocks, the most popular pick thus far. He is closely followed by receiver Zay Flowers, though, at 13.8%.

Given the recent report that the Giants are “locked onto” JMS, offensive line might be good value here. 33rd Team’s T.J. McCreight recently told Ed Valentine that the thought process around the league is shifting toward valuing centers more.

The biggest reason that the Giants would not take a center at No. 25 is the fact that there are multiple starting-caliber centers available in the second and even third rounds. Joe Tippmann, Luke Wypler, Olusegun Olawatimi, and even Ricky Stromberg and Juice Scruggs are considered likely Day 2 picks. Some have Tippmann ranked the best center in the draft.

Given the Giants’ other needs, they may choose to wait until later for a center. Still, it’s not a bad pick at +380 (20.8% implied probability).

Most likely non-mock pick: Cornerback (+200)

The Giants desperately need another cornerback opposite Adoree’ Jackson. Their other options include Darnay Holmes, Cor’Dale Flott, Amani Oruwariye, Nick McCloud, Rodarius Williams, Aaron Robinson, and Leonard Johnson.

Jackson is also in the final year of his deal, leaving the Giants razor-thin at cornerback past 2023.

The implied probability here is 33.3%, which seems a little high for a non-consensus pick. However, players like Emmanuel Forbes and Deonte Banks make significant appearances in mock drafts, and both have plenty of upside. It would not be surprising to see the Giants turn in a cornerback at No. 25.

Biggest wild card: Defensive line/Edge (+700)

On paper, the Giants have a strong core on the defensive line and on the edge. Dexter Lawrence is a beast in the middle, while Leonard Williams still has some good football in him. They invested a top-five pick in Kayvon Thibodeaux last season and still have 2021 second-rounder Azeez Ojulari, who posted eight sacks as a rookie before enduring an injury-plagued sophomore campaign.

However, the team has been rumored to be looking for help on the line. Williams dealt with a persistent neck injury in 2022 and is entering the final year of his deal. Jihad Ward is a decent run defender but offers little thump as a pass rusher. Rakeem Nunez-Roches was signed for depth, but he is also not a difference-maker.

Occasionally, players like B.J. Ojulari, Bryan Bresee, and Will McDonald IV will show up in mock drafts. The reasoning is likely either that the Giants would go best player available or that the receivers with first-round grades are off the board, forcing them to pivot.

Sunday’s mock draft with Ed has the Giants trading down with Kansas City from No. 25 to No. 31, which could happen in a scenario where their targeted players are off the board. However, they could also decide to stun some prognosticators and take an edge rusher or defensive lineman.

Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer also connected the Giants with edge rusher in the first round, so it wouldn’t be a total shock to see them select one.

Low odds swing: Safety (+2500)

The fact that safety has such low odds is somewhat surprising. The Giants lost Julian Love this offseason and currently have inferior in-house replacements. Bobby McCain and Jason Pinnock will likely be competing for the spot next to Xavier McKinney.

If Brian Branch fell a bit, he could play a lot of slot cornerback while also helping in the box. Wink Martindale would find ways to utilize Branch’s versatility.

It is true that there aren’t many other safeties projected in this area, which definitely lowers the odds. Branch is listed as Sports Info Solutions’ 12th overall draft prospect and isn’t all that likely to last to No. 25.

Still, +2500 (3.85% probability) could be an enticement if you’re looking for a potentially high-reward swing.

Where’s the money?

This depends on your betting strategy. If you’re just trying to go with what’s most likely, then by all means, go wide receiver. However, if you’re trying to balance “most likely” with “best value,” offensive line is probably the play. There’s too much smoke around Schmitz to ignore.

As a betting analyst, my tendency is to recommend high-reward picks: not necessarily winners in and of themselves, but choices where I believe the actual probability is higher than the implied probability, making the possible payout high. However, I would always join that with safer picks to stay ahead of the curve.

In the Giants’ case, though, I don’t see any real value picks that I would jump on. Therefore, as part of such a strategy, I would either bet on receiver as the safest pick or cornerback as what I personally believe is most likely.