In their Week 11 Cave for Caleb contest, the New York Giants go up against the lone NFC East opponent that they’ve beaten in recent memory, the Washington Commanders. Given the torture of watching a non-competitive team with a non-NFL-level quarterback each week, perhaps putting some money on the game would ease the pain a bit.
I went 3-for-6 last week, which means I’ve now been at 50% accuracy or better in three out of the last four weeks. Of course, whether that matters or not depends on how much money you put down and which bets you placed.
Giants’ first drive result: Turnover, turnover on downs or safety (+500)
Tommy DeVito has a 5.6% interception rate, which would rank last out of all starting quarterbacks if he qualified. The Giants nearly got stuffed for a safety multiple times last week. I don't love the +500 odds (16.7% implied probability), but it just seems Giant-like enough to give it a go. Very statistically driven pick, I know.
Dexter Lawrence: Over 0.25 sacks (-105)
I picked Lawrence’s first sack of the year against Washington (he had two). I’m picking another one now that Tyler Larsen, sporting an 8.3% pressure rate, replaced Nick Gates (4.1%) at center for the Commanders. Lawrence hasn’t gotten home as much this year as last, but I think he will against a passer who has the fifth-lowest rate of passes released in under 2.5 seconds (41%) among qualified quarterbacks.
Washington: To win both halves (+125)
Why not? The Giants are more likely to allow points than they are to score them at any given time.
Points not scored in every quarter (+165)
Somehow, this just seems like the type of game that might have a long scoreless period. Maybe I’m going off the other matchup, though.
Washington: To win by 13-18 (+380)
This is likely contradictory with the previous one, but take your pick.
Same-game parlay: Saquon Barkley anytime TD + Barkley over 69.5 rushing yards + Darius Slayton over 24.5 receiving yards (+550)
I don’t really think this is going to happen, but it’s the only parlay that I can possibly see happening. If Barkley catches lightning in a bottle, perhaps he can go over 69.5 rushing yards and score a touchdown. Most likely, Darius Slayton will exceed 24.5 receiving yards only if DeVito can throw the ball more than five yards downfield, which is in question.