I’ve written the New York Giants DraftKings Sportsbook prop bets articles twice now, and as readers will know, my track record isn’t all that great. But, in the way of a truly obstinate analyst, I will continue to write the articles as if I know better than my readers.
Perhaps my analysis can add something new to consider when making a bet, regardless of the outcome. Maybe I’ll learn my lesson from the Seahawks game and pick only the Miami Dolphins’ offense to succeed.
Miami Dolphins: To score first (-195)
Considering that the Giants have been outscored 77-9 in the first half this season, I think this one is pretty much automatic.
Daniel Jones: Under 224.5 passing yards (-115)
Is there any way to bet the over on Daniel Jones’ passing yards with the way he’s played? Outside of one half of play, Jones has been abysmal this season. He’s thrown for under 200 yards twice and 203 in a third game. Even with Miami’s suspect cornerback play, take the under until Jones proves otherwise.
Tua Tagovailoa: Longest completion over 38.5 yards (-110)
The Giants have given up three completions of over 38.5 yards this season — one each against Dallas, San Francisco, and Seattle. The Dolphins also have three pass plays of over 38.5 yards — one against the Los Angeles Chargers and two against Denver. When you combine the Dolphins’ sheer speed with the Giants’ poor coverage and horrific tackling, the chances of at least one passing play over that total seem fairly high.
Tyreek Hill against the Giants’ secondary is a matchup that would have any defender quaking in their boots.
Tyreek Hill: Over 88.5 receiving yards (-115)
Surprisingly, Tyreek Hill has two games this season in which he was held to fewer than 60 receiving yards. Unsurprisingly, the defenses were New England’s and Buffalo’s.
In the other two games? Oh, he had only 215 and 157 yards, respectively. It’s worth noting, though, that Hill has gone over 88.5 receiving yards in nine of the 15 games started by Tagovailoa since the beginning of last year. So far this season, Deebo Samuel (129) and George Kittle (90) have gone over 88.5 yards against the Giants.
I still think Hill is a good bet here.
Darren Waller: Over 40.5 receiving yards (-115)
I must really be masochistic to keep going back to this one. I picked the over on Darren Waller in Week 1, and he went well under. I picked the over on Waller in Week 4, and he went well under. But I’m going to pick Waller one more time. If he doesn’t do it now, I’m not picking the over on his receiving yards for the rest of the season. (You can hold me to that.)
I’m picking the over because the Dolphins have allowed 22 receptions for 181 yards and two touchdowns to tight ends this season. That’s 45.3 yards per game. With Daniel Bellinger ailing, unless the Giants suddenly decide to look toward Lawrence Cager, there’s no one standing in Waller’s way of being the sole pass-catcher at tight end.
The Dolphins’ main off-ball linebackers, Jerome Baker and David Long, are both struggling miserably in coverage. The Giants will find a way to exploit that using Waller. Right?
Miami Dolphins: Over 30.5 points (-105)
The Giants’ defense may have only given up 17 points to Seattle, but this is a different animal. The Dolphins dropped 70 points on Denver and 36 on the Chargers. New England and Buffalo managed to hold them to 24 and 20 points, respectively, but those are two strong defensive teams. The Giants are, well, not.
Same-game parlay: Over 48.5 points + Tyreek Hill anytime TD + Saquon Barkley anytime TD (+290)
I’m not all that convinced Saquon Barkley is going to play on Sunday, but I just couldn’t bring myself to rethink Daniel Jones’ passing yardage totals.
If I pick the Dolphins to score over 30.5 points, how much over will they need to go in order to get the game total over 48.5? That’s a rather dismal question, but it’s legitimate after the Giants managed just one field goal against Seattle. Miami has allowed 29.8 points per game this season, but they also gave up 20 to Denver and 17 to New England. It was two higher-powered offenses, the Chargers’ and Bills’, that racked up the point totals.
Tyreek Hill anytime touchdown doesn’t need any explanation. If Barkley does play, he’s the most likely Giants player to get into the end zone. It helps that Miami’s run defense has had its struggles this season.