New York Giants fans, you may not want to hear from me about betting on the matchup with the New York Jets this week. After all, as I write all about your beloved G-Men on Big Blue View, I also scrawl my Jets thoughts on a different website. The good news is that BBV readers don’t look at Jets sites, so they’ll never know what I write unless they bother to Google and read it. Or you can just watch or listen to my podcast appearance with Ed.
Still, in many ways, this might be the best week to take my advice. After all, I can honestly say that I know a tremendous amount about both teams, as I cover them both. I also went 3-for-5 last week in the Commanders game, including — for the first time — my same-game parlay. (Hey, I picked Dexter Lawrence to break his sack slump; maybe I’ll take Kayvon Thibodeaux to get two sacks this week — it’s a weekly special).
Either way, here are your prop bets for the Week 8 MetLife Melee.
Total points: under 36.5 (-108)
The Giants average 12.1 points scored per game, while the Jets are at 18.8. That’s a combined average of 30.9 points. There’s very little reason to bet the over in this game.
NY Giants: To score first and lose (+320)
The Jets’ defense has been a tale of two halves this year: they’re among the league’s worst in the first half and lights-out in the second half. The Jets also haven’t scored on their first drive in any game this season, while the Giants have scored in two of seven. The Jets have scored first in only one of six games, while the Giants have done so in two of seven (their last two games). There’s a decent chance the Giants will score first in this game.
The Giants are also -2.5 underdogs at DraftKings right now. Although they’ve played better in recent weeks, a defensive slugfest is more likely to go the Jets’ way. That holds especially true with Andrew Thomas’ return unlikely this week.
First NY Jets drive result: Punt (-120)
As stated above, the Jets haven’t scored on their first drive at all this season. They’ve punted each time. No-brainer.
Saquon Barkley: Over 69.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Jets’ run defense has been porous this season. They’ve allowed the eighth-most rushes of 10+ yards (23) in the NFL. They rank 21st in allowing 4.4 yards per rush attempt and 26th with 135.2 rush yards allowed per game. They’ve also allowed three backs to go over 69.5 yards this year, and a fourth gained 68 yards. Barkley has gone over 69.5 in his last two games. It’s a solid bet.
Breece Hall: Over 68.5 rushing yards (-125)
Hall had 22 rush attempts against the Denver Broncos. It’s likely that the Jets will come out with a similar game script against the Giants. Hall is the only qualified back (min. 40 rush attempts) in the NFL with a 70+ yard rush, and he has two of them. He also has another 40-yard run. This is a back who eats up yardage in chunks, and the Giants have allowed the third-most rushes of 20+ yards with eight, although none in the last two weeks.
With Hall now commanding most of the carries in the Jets’ backfield, the over is the correct play here.
Same-game parlay: Saquon Barkley anytime TD + Breece Hall anytime TD + Barkley over 69.5 rushing yards + Hall over 68.5 rushing yards (+1200)
I already picked the over on rushing yards for both Barkley and Hall. I don’t really believe both players will score a touchdown, but most of the other same-game parlays involve three anytime touchdown scorers, Zach Wilson throwing for over 199.5 yards, and/or over 36.5 total points. Since I see virtually no way those things will happen, that leaves this option.
There is also the possibility of replacing the Hall and Barkley yardage totals with Darius Slayton (over 26.5 receiving yards) and Garrett Wilson (over 60.5 receiving yards) for +1300. However, Slayton is just as likely to be shut out as he is to go over 26.5 yards.