The New York Giants are just about in full see you next year mode. Heading into the year, their Week 6 tilt with Buffalo was considered a likely loss, but now, it’ll be shocking if it’s not an absolute blowout. The 15-point spread is the largest of the week, and with good reason: the Bills’ three victories have come by 28, 34, and 28 points.
Still, when a blowout is expected, that can change the game script a bit. Will Josh Allen keep throwing the ball in a lopsided game? (Based on his track record, the answer is likely.) How does it affect James Cook, Stefon Diggs, and Gabe Davis?
Meanwhile, on the Giants’ side, there is almost no offense. Daniel Jones and Andrew Thomas are out, while Saquon Barkley is questionable. Even if Barkley plays, expect him to be going up against nine-man boxes all game.
My readers will note that I nailed all my picks besides the same-game parlay last week. Obviously, that means I’m overconfident this week.
Total points: Over 44.5 (-110)
The Bills’ games have gone over 44.5 points three times. The two that didn’t were the Jets, who have a strong defense, and the Commanders, who scored nothing. While that could very well happen to the Giants, the Bills’ defense is banged up enough that I think the two teams will combine for more than 44.5 points.
Total game touchdowns: 5 (+280)
The Bills’ games this season have averaged 5.6 touchdowns, while the Giants’ have averaged 4.8. We’ll go with five, assuming that the Giants can score some field goals and hold Buffalo to some instead of all touchdowns. Exact totals are never my preferred bet, but I’m sticking to this one.
James Cook: Over 59.5 rushing yards (-115)
Cook has averaged 12.2 carries per game this season, and he’s at 4.8 yards per carry. That would bring him to 58.6 rushing yards. Cook’s two best and busiest games on the ground came in Weeks 2 and 3 when the Bills won 38-10 and 37-3. We could see a repeat in this game.
Gabriel Davis: Longest reception over 21.5 yards (-120)
Gabe Davis is Josh Allen’s deep threat. He has six receptions of over 21.5 yards this season, including at least one in every game. The Giants’ pass coverage has allowed 14 receptions of over 21.5 yards. This is a safe bet.
Darius Slayton: Under 25.5 receiving yards (-115)
Don’t pick the over on any Giants receiver. Period.
Same game parlay: Josh Allen over 265.5 passing yards + Stefon Diggs anytime TD + Bills moneyline (+174)
The biggest question in this one is if Allen will get over 265.5 passing yards. He didn’t against the Jets and Commanders despite winning the latter game 37-3. The Giants have given up over 300 passing yards to Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa, but they were also blown out twice while giving up fewer than 200 passing yards. If this game gets out of hand early, Cook could rack up the yards rather than Allen. Still, I’m going with this one.