It is Football Outsiders Almanac time again. An interesting part of this year’s almanac is 2022 rookie projections. Here is how FO projects three New York Giants rookies to fare.
Football Outsiders uses a SACKSEER projection for edge defenders. That encompasses the following criteria:
• An “explosion index” that measures the prospect’s scores in the 40-yard dash, the vertical jump, and the broad jump in pre-draft workouts.
• Sacks per game, adjusted for factors such as early entry in the NFL draft and position switches during college.
• Passes defensed per game.
Thibodeaux’s SACKSEER Rating, comparing him to past players, is 86.0. Only Travon Walker (89.7), picked first by the Jacksonville Jaguars, had a higher rating.
In terms of production, SACKSEER forecasts 26.6 sacks for Thibodeaux, the No. 5 overall pick, over his first five seasons. Walker (27.2) and Aidan Hutchinson (26.9), the second overall pick in the draft by the Detroit Lions, were projected to have more.
Football Outsiders uses a Playmaker Score to predict success. The criteria, based largely on college stats, are as follows:
- The prospect’s peak season for receiving yards per team attempt and receiving touchdowns per team attempt.
- Differences between this prospect’s peak season andmost recent season, toa djust for players who declined in their final college year.
- Rushing attempts per game.
- A binary variable that rewards players who enter the draft as underclassmen.
- A factor that gives a bonus to wideouts who played on the same college team as other receivers who are projected to be drafted.
Robinson, selected 43rd overall, had a favorable 94.8 percent Playmaker Rating in comparison to past players.
Robinson’s Playmaker Score of 432, his projected average receiving yards over his first five seasons, places him seventh in the 2022 rookie class.
Football Outsiders projects tight end production with a new formula it is calling ‘Travis.’ The criteria:
The player’s peak season for receiving yards per team attempt.
40-yard dash time, either at the combine or a player’s pro day. • Age under 23 as of September of the player’s rookie year.
Expected draft position (not actual draft position) based on pre-draft analysis by ESPN’s Scouts Inc.
The Travis projection is the player’s average receiving yards during the first five seasons of his career. Bellinger, the sixth tight end selected, checks in with the fourth-highest Travis score, a 197.
Only Trey McBride (Round 2, pick 55, Arizona Cardinals) with a 395, Greg Dulcich (Round 3, pick 80, Denver Broncos with a 250 and Isaiah Likely (Round 4, pick 139, Baltimore Ravens) with a 231, were projected to do better.
Go to Footballoutsiders.com to find out how to get your 2022 almanac.