Let's say both franchise tag or second contract are in one bet, and coming back getting a second contract is another bet. In my opinion it would mean all or most of these 6 things would have to happen - 1) The OL improves to at least average 2) Jones plays a minimum of 12/13 games in good health 3) The core receivers stay relatively healthy for the most part . 4) Barkley has the second best year of his NFL career .5) There isn't a QB in the draft that Schoen is really crazy about and is likely accessible. 6) Jones shoes significant improvement with pocket presence, turnovers, reading progressions, being clutch, and of course he needs to throw the ball really well.
BET 1 : Franchisee tag or second contract 4 - 1
BET 2 : Second contact 6-1
Other variables include the quality of the new offensive scheme, how well he runs, how many games the team wins.
I'm personally still a supporter, think keeping him economically was a no brainer, and feel he's got a chance to do it.