One of the ‘Big Blue View rules for draft success’ is “If you don’t have a franchise quarterback, get one.”
That rule says “If you need a franchise quarterback, think there is one available when it is your turn to draft, and pass on drafting him shame on you.”
There is a caveat to that rule. It reads:
“The flip side of this rule is do not take the quarterback in the first round unless you are absolutely convinced he can be the face of your franchise for the next decade. You can’t pick a guy just to pick a quarterback or because Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, some other TV talking head, media member or the fan base says you should. You are marrying that player. You are putting the fortunes of the franchise in his hands. If you pick the wrong quarterback, you set your franchise back.”
Reality is, the NFL is bad — really bad — when it comes to evaluating college quarterbacks and determining which ones are worth trying to build franchises around. Don’t believe me? Here is the list of quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 since 2010:
Round 1 QBs since 2010
No. 1 — Sam Bradford (St. Louis Rams)
No. 25 — Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos)
No. 1 — Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)
No. 8 — Jake Locker (Tennessee Titans)
No. 10 — Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville Jaguars)
No. 12 — Christian Ponder (Minnesota Vikings)
No. 1 — Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts)
No. 2 — Robert Griffin (Washington Redskins)
No. 8 — Ryan Tannehill (Miami Dolphins)
No. 22 — Brandon Weeden (Cleveland Browns)
No. 16 — EJ Manuel (Buffalo Bills)
No. 3 — Blake Bortles (Jacksonville Jaguars)
No. 22 — Johnny Manziel (Cleveland Browns)
No. 32 — Teddy Bridgewater (Minnesota Vikings)
No. 1 — Jameis Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
No. 2 — Marcus Mariota (Tennessee Titans)
No. 1 — Jared Goff (Los Angeles Rams)
No. 2 — Carson Wentz (Philadelphia Eagles)
No. 26 — Paxton Lynch (Denver Broncos)
No. 2 — Mitchell Trubisky (Chicago Bears)
No. 10 — Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)
No. 12 — DeShaun Watson (Houston Texans)
No. 1 — Baker Mayfield (Cleveland Browns)
No. 3 — Sam Darnold (New York Jets)
No. 7 — Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)
No. 10 — Josh Rosen (Arizona Cardinals)
No. 32 — Lamar Jackson
No. 1 — Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals)
No. 6 — Daniel Jones (New York Giants)
No. 15 — Dwayne Haskins (Washington)
No. 1 — Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)
No. 5 — Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)
No. 6 — Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers)
No. 26 — Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers)
No. 1 — Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars)
No. 2 — Zach Wilson (New York Jets)|
No. 3 — Trey Lance (San Francisco 49ers)
No. 11 — Justin Fields (Chicago Bears)
No. 15 — Mac Jones (New England Patriots)
That’s 39 first-round quarterbacks. Take out the 2021 class because it’s too early for full judgments, and it’s 34. I would argue that only eight guys — Newton, Luck, Mahomes, Watson, Allen, Jackson, Herbert — ever achieved true franchise quarterback status with their original teams. That’s eight of 34 (23.5 percent). Even if a few of the 2021 quarterbacks get there, the percentage is still going to be awful.
So, no, the NFL really doesn’t know how to look at quarterbacks and figure out which players have the right stuff to be franchise quarterbacks.
What does all of this have to do with the New York Giants?
The Giants are not expected to be in the Day 1 quarterback market. Perhaps the numbers above will help you understand why they want to take one more shot with Daniel Jones before moving on. If they have to go back into the draft for a first-round quarterback, there is — maybe — a one in three chance of getting the star quarterback every team is looking for.
Still, the reality that there are quarterback-needy teams who might be ready to take their swing despite this being considered a mediocre quarterback class could work in the Giants’ favor.
A few months ago, evaluators would tell you there wasn’t a single quarterback in this class worthy of a top 10 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Teams, though, have been in the ‘talk themselves of being in love with a quarterback’ process for the past few months.
Now, depending on who you read or talk to, there could be one quarterback taken in the top 10. Maybe there will be three. Desperation for a potential quarterback upgrade could lead to as many as five quarterbacks being selected in Round 1.
All of this is great for the Giants.
Quarterbacks Matt Corral, Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder are all visiting the Panthers today for their top-30 visits, per sources.— Jonathan M Alexander (@jonmalexander) April 12, 2022
The quarterback flash point in Round 1 is thought to be No. 6, where the Carolina Panthers have not been able to get the position right in Matt Rhule’s first two seasons as head coach. It is widely anticipated that the Panthers will take a big swing at quarterback at No. 6.
That means, of course, that with picks 5 and 7 the Giants and GM Joe Schoen sit in an excellent spot.
If a team like the Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks or Atlanta Falcons has a clear No. 1 quarterback on their board they feel like they have to have, the Giants are in a place to get a king’s ransom for moving back.
The same holds true at No. 7. If Carolina passes on a quarterback, QB1 is likely to still be on the board. If the Panthers select Kenny Pickett or Malik Willis, QB-needy teams might get nervous and want to jump the Falcons at No. 8. Again, Schoen and the Giants would be in an excellent spot to get the added “at-bats” the GM would like in the draft.
So, every time you read about Desmond Ridder or Matt Corral as a potential top-10 pick, hope that it’s true. The more teams talk themselves into desperate moves for quarterbacks, the more options for the Giants.