How big is the New York Giants’ game Sunday against the Washington Commanders? Well, according to Football Outsiders it is this big:
The playoff leverage for Sunday night's #Commanders-#NYGiants game is immense.— Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) December 13, 2022
Odds of making the playoffs:
WAS: 86% with win, 28% with loss
NYG: 90% with win, 31% with loss
SEA: 57% either way
DET: 20% if NYG wins, 21% if WAS wins#HTTC #TogetherBlue #Seahawks #OnePride
By the Football Outsiders formula, the Giants have a 90 percent chance of earning a wild-card playoff berth if they win, and only 31 percent if they lose. That corresponds pretty closely to the New York Times playoff simulator, which recently made those numbers 91 and 38 percent.
The Giants knock Washington’s chance of reaching the playoffs all the way down to 28 percent with a victory.
Currently, Football Outsiders has the Giants’ playoff chances at 50.3 percent.
The biggest problem the Giants have — other than needing to win on Sunday night — is the head-to-head losses to the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions. The Giants’ Week 13 tie vs. Washington could work in their favor, though, as a tie obviously equates to one less loss in the final standings.
Here are how some other playoff prognostication sites see the Giants’ chances of reaching the playoffs entering Sunday’s game:
- Playoff Status gives the Giants a 54 percent chance of being a playoff team.
- FiveThirtyEight has the Giants with a 45 percent chance, while giving the Commanders a 73 percent chance.
- NBC Sports gives the Giants a 53 percent chance, and the Commanders a 74 percent chance.
- ESPN’s Football Power Index shows the Giants with a 54.7 percent playoff chance, and Washington with a 70 percent chance.
- The Athletic is the least optimistic about the Giants, giving them just a 23.3 chance to make the playoffs. In their model, the Commanders have a 51.1 percent chance.