FanPost

FANPOST: Where Does Daniel Jones Rank in QB Statistics?

Daniel Jones - Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Daniel Jones has been one of the most polarizing first-round QB selections in recent history, with many people, both experts and fans, dismissing his chances of success, and others confident that he will grow into the job and ultimately become a winning QB in the NFL.

The basic accumulative stats out there usually paint a dim picture - not enough TDs, too many INTs and fumbles, too many losses, etc. And there are other doubts that are less easily quantified, like read progression ability. But from stats that are widely and freely available, where does he stand among starting QBs in the NFL?

I used statistics from Pro Football Reference to rank Jones for a variety of metrics. PFR ranks every player who threw a pass in 2020, including WRs, and some teams had multiple starting QBs. Furthermore, the Giants did not pass as much as many teams in 2020, so Jones tends to rank low on pure volume statistics. Some of that is Jones' own fault, i.e., not keeping drives alive with poor passes, avoidable sacks, etc., but some is due to the players around him and the OC who calls the plays. So statistics on a per-pass basis may be more revealing of his strengths and weaknesses, although even these are affected by the players he played with and the plays that were called.

But first, here are some of the basic volume statistics for completeness. In parentheses, the league leader:

Attempts: 448, 19th (Matt Ryan, 626)
Completions: 280, 19th (Matt Ryan, 407)
Passing yards: 2943, 19th (Deshaun Watson, 4823)

13 of the QBs ranked ahead of Jones started 16 games, the other 5 started 15, as opposed to Jones' 14 (including the Cincinnati and Arizona games he only played part of). If we say that Jones played 13 complete games, then his projected totals for 16 games would be 551 attempts, 345 completions, 3622 yards. This would move him up to about the bottom of the top 10 in attempts, about 13th-15th in completions, but only 1-2 slots higher in passing yards, which presumably tells us that either he was not throwing deep that often, either due to Garrett's offense or him checking down a lot or both, or that his receivers didn't have many YAC. The full-season starting QBs most comparable to Jones were Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill, and Teddy Bridgewater.

That Jones was throwing short a lot is proven by his rank of 23rd in intended air yards (IAY), which measures how far passes travel in the air whether completed or not, and 78th in IAY per pass attempt (7.1). The latter rank is misleading because it includes many players who threw very few passes (e.g., WRs who usually throw deep on the rare occasion they are asked to throw). But among QBs who started most of their games, only Ben Roethlisberger (6.9), Cam Newton (6.8), Andy Dalton (6.8), Nick Mullens (6.3), Jared Goff (6.2), and Drew Brees (6.1) ranked lower. Jones was 18th in air yards on completed attempts (CAY), and 41st on CAY per attempt and CAY per completion, the latter two of these again behind many WRs who only passed occasionally. Of note is that several starting QBs who played fewer games than Jones (Drew Lock, 13 starts; Carson Wentz, 12; Joe Burrow, 10) had higher IAY than Jones. This is notable because PFF rated Jones as among the best QBs last year on deep throws - he just didn't throw deep often.

Jones ranked 26th in yards after catch (YAC) and an awful 77th in YAC per completion. This is telling us that either his receivers weren't able to get wide open, that the pass routes called by Garrett provided for little opportunity for YAC, that his passes didn't hit receivers in stride often enough, or some combination of these.

Jones' passes were dropped by his receivers at a rate of 5.3%, 10th highest in the league among QBs who started most of their games, and tied for 11th in number of drops at 23 (here's looking at you, Evan Engram). (Note: PFR's definition of drops assumes a "reasonable (non-Odell Beckham level) effort".) He was 17th in "bad" throws (not catchable with normal effort) at 76, but tied for 12th highest among QBs who started most of their games in bad throw frequency at 17.6%. QBs who were "less accurate" by this measure included Tom Brady and several other big-time QBs, and he was tied with Patrick Mahomes, so take this statistic with a grain of salt, it depends on the type of passes you are attempting. On the other hand, among starting QBs, Jones ranked tied for 21st in on-target throw frequency (75.3%). Among starters, Kirk Cousins (81.3%) and Aaron Rodgers (81.2%) led the pack. Baker Mayfield and Tom Brady were among those below Jones.

Some of Jones' problems surely derived from the pressure (hurries + knockdowns + sacks) he was under from a leaky OL. Among starters, only Nick Mullens (31.1%) was pressured more often than Jones (31.0%). 13 starting QBs were pressured less than 20% of the time, led by Aaron Rodgers at 14.2%. Jones was sacked 4th most often in the league (45 times), he was blitzed 4th most often (200 times), he was hurried 6th most often (56 times), and he was hit 10th most often (55 times).

An interesting stat is that Jones finished 7th in the league in yards gained on RPOs (370). This stat has several tiers: The QBs most associated with running the ball themselves (Kyler Murray, 1395, and Lamar Jackson, 1301); the QBs who are masters of passing off RPO plays (Patrick Mahomes, 770; Josh Allen, 617; Deshaun Watson, 598); and everyone else. Jones leads the "everyone else" category, with his 152 rushing yards on RPOs trailing only Jackson (559) and Murray (288). Jones was only 14th in pass attempts and passing yards off RPOs, so it would be nice to see Garrett dial up more of these in 2021.

RPOs include plays on which the option is run or pass. I don't believe it includes the zone reads (QB hands off or keeps the ball) that Jones was so dangerous on last year. But in total rushing yards, Jones' 423 trailed only Jackson, Murray, Newton, Wilson, and Watson. Clearly this is and should remain a big part of his arsenal.

Play action passes (faking the run on a designed passing play, as opposed to RPOs that give the QB a choice of run or pass) tell a different story. The masters of play action in 2020 were Ryan Tannehill (1541 yards), followed by Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, and Jared Goff. Jones only finished 21st in yards (687) on play action passes, trying only a bit more than half as often as the leaders.

So that is the picture of Daniel Jones by the numbers. But one more take on things. Given his draft position (round 1, pick #6), how good should we EXPECT him to be? The simple answer is that he was a high first round pick, he should become a great QB. But history says otherwise. Of the 32 expected NFL starting QBs in 2021, 13 were drafted higher than Jones. I've subjectively divided these into three groups:

Clearly better than Jones is or probably will ever be: Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray

In the ballpark of what Jones might eventually be: Jameis Winston, Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Cam Newton, Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield

Too little data to know yet: Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow

You'll notice that this list does not include most of the QBs we normally think of as the best QBs in the NFL. If we look at QBs drafted at about the same place as Jones (round 1, picks 6-11), the list is

Clearly better: Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger

In the ballpark: Ryan Tannehill

So we're more than halfway through the list of NFL starting QBs and there are only 7 of 14 highly drafted QBs with enough data that I rate higher than Jones' ceiling. The rest of the best QBs in the league were drafted low in round 1 (Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson), in round 2 (Derek Carr), in round 3 (Russell Wilson), in round 4 (Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins), or in round 6 (Tom Brady).

In other words, there is only about a 50% chance that a highly drafted QB will emerge as one of the best in the NFL. Perhaps that will change as last year's and this year's draftees develop. And hopefully Daniel Jones will develop too and become a top 12 QB. But if he never becomes more than a middling QB, he's got lots of company at the top of the draft charts.

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