FanPost

Daniel Jones: Take the Leap, or Go Take a Flying Leap? Ask Ryan Tannehill


The single biggest issue facing the 2021 New York Giants is whether Daniel Jones can become the type of franchise QB that teams expect when they use the #6 pick of the draft on them. Jones showed some promise in his first two years, but not enough to erase the doubts. You might say that this either will be the year that Jones "takes the leap," as is often stated, or the year after which the Giants will decline his 5th year option and tell him to go take a flying leap instead.

In search of hope, Giants followers often point to the example of Josh Allen, who was very mediocre his first two seasons and then found religion (as well as Stefon Diggs and a more accurate touch) in year 3. Allen took the leap and is now considered a top 5 QB. Maybe that will be Daniel Jones in 2021 as well (substitute Kenny Golladay for Stefon Diggs).

But being realistic, do we really expect Daniel Jones to become a top 5 QB? If not, and if we haven't given up on him, then is there a reasonable expectation of what he can become, a model of a productive QB for a Super Bowl contending team that we might hope him to emulate?

Let's go to Chris Simms for his rankings of NFL QBs. Lots to argue about in his list, but his top 15 or so generally make sense to me even if you don't agree with the specific order:

I don't think any sane person expects Daniel Jones to ever become Mahomes, Rodgers, Watson, Wilson. And as good a runner as he is, he is a very different type QB than Lamar Jackson. (Isn't everyone?) But in the next tier are some interesting names. The one that stands out to me is Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill has effectively had two careers, one a borderline failure with Miami and the other an amazing, out-of-nowhere success with Tennessee. In fact, since joining the Titans, he's been just about as good as the big name QBs:

Here are some comparisons between season average statistics for Daniel Jones, Tannehill (Miami), and Tannehill (Tennessee):

PFF rating: 72.1 (Jones), 68.6 (Tannehill/M), 91.4 (Tannehill/T)
Pro Football Reference AV: 9, 10.2, 14
Passing TDs: 17.5, 20.5, 27.5
INTs: 11, 12.5, 6.5
QB rating: 84.1, 87, 110.6
Completion %: 62.2, 62.8, 67.3
Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt: 5.15, 5.58, 8.14
Pressure %: 29.6, 30.7, 23.6
Sacks: 41.5, 41.3, 27.5

Jones' career to date has been a lot like Miami Tannehill's. Why has the Tennessee version of Tannehill been so much better than the Miami version? The easy answer is escaping an Adam Gase-coached offense and entering an Arthur Smith-coached offense. We'll be able to test that hypothesis since Smith is now the head coach of the Falcons.

More to the point, though, may be the specifics of the Tennessee offense, which bears some similarity to things we tend to see from the Giants or might expect to see this year. This article has some things to say about how Tennessee's offense helps Tannehill: https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2020/12/26/mythbusters-why-ryan-tannehill-is-a-scheme-transcendent-top-five-nfl-quarterback/

1. Tennessee sees a lot of 8-man boxes because teams focus on Derrick Henry. The Giants see a lot of 8-man boxes when Saquon Barkley is healthy. FYI, the Titans' OL is ranked middle of the pack by PFF.

2. Tennessee plays a lot of "heavy" personnel (see Chris Pflum's summer school piece), i.e., 1-2 or 1-3. In 2020, according to Sharp Football Statistics (https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html) they played 1-2 35% of the time and 1-3 9% of the time, both of these among the league leaders. The Giants played 1-2 27% of the time and 1-3 10% of the time. Tannehill was excellent ** passing ** out of these heavy personnel groupings. He had two big downfield threats in A.J. Brown and Corey Davis, just as we now have two big downfield threats in Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton. (Miami ran 1-1 personnel 74% of the time in Tannehill's last year with Gase.)

So can Daniel Jones become Ryan Tannehill II? Would this be enough for Giants fans to be satisfied with their round 1 pick 6 investment? (FYI Tannehill was a round 1 pick 8 draftee.) Is this what Jason Garrett has planned for 2021? Maybe.

FanPosts are written by community members. This is simply a way for community members to express opinions too long to be contained in a comment.