Good morning, New York Giants fans!
1. New York Giants-Chicago Bears
The trade: Bears receive pick No. 11; Giants receive picks Nos. 20 and 164, 2022 first-round and fourth-round picks
The value winner: Giants
Surplus value: First-round pick
Let me start off by saying that trades are not a zero-sum game and this deal is a perfect example: It's a win-win. The value calculation changes for a team trading up for a quarterback -- the upside of "hitting" on the pick is dramatically higher than hitting on a non-quarterback -- and so the Bears paying this premium for Fields is, in my view, not only acceptable but worthwhile.
But for the Giants, it's irrelevant whom the Bears selected: New York walks away with a ton of extra value. The expected production out of a player selected with the No. 11 pick is about 20% more than for a player at No. 20 in an average draft. In exchange for that 20%, the Giants landed an entire extra first-round pick and then some.
If we assume the Bears' pick is in the middle of the first round next year and we don't discount any value for that extra first being in a future year (which, to be fair, there probably should be some discount), then Gettleman roughly doubled the value of his No. 11 pick with this trade. That's just good business.
The Giants’ offseason gets the Gil Brandt seal of approval:
Quarterback Daniel Jones is heading into a sink-or-swim Year 3 -- but never let it be said GM Dave Gettleman didn't do everything in his power to give him the weapons needed to succeed. Receivers Kenny Golladay (signed on a four-year, $72 million contract) and Kadarius Toney (drafted 20th overall after Gettleman, yes, traded down!) and versatile tight end Kyle Rudolph (signed to a two-year, $14 million deal) join a skill-position group that will be further augmented by the return to health of running back Saquon Barkley. On defense, Gettleman secured a long-term agreement with centerpiece defensive lineman Leonard Williams. He also rolled the dice on comeback Adoree' Jackson (three years, $39 million) rebounding from the knee injury that ruined his 2020 season. Another move that could pay huge dividends: snagging pass rusher Azeez Ojulari, a first-round talent who slipped to the second round.
Thanks to some "tough love" shown by his position coach, New York Giants rookie DE Elerson Smith will get his chance to shine in the NFL.
Most of the names on this list will be familiar.
In case you missed it
- NFC East betting odds: New York Giants being under-valued
- What do NFL executives think of the NFC East in the 2021 NFL Draft?
- Big Blue View mailbag: Post-2021 NFL Draft edition
- Dave Gettleman acting like “a guy that doesn’t feel like he’s on the hot seat” — Dan Hatman
- NFC East Review: Evaluating the Washington Football Team’s 2021 draft class
- Giants said to be “livid” when Eagles drafted DeVonta Smith
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