Giants-Bears trade proposal: Would this deal be a win for the Giants?

We have been over a number of scenarios for the New York Giants in the 2021 NFL Draft, including trades down from No. 11. With a couple of days left until we find out what Dave Gettleman, Joe Judge and the Giants will actually do, we might as well keep tossing around scenarios.

Cynthia Frelund, analytics expert for the NFL Network, has proposed a trade down to No. 20 which she believes is a “win-win” for both the Giants and the Chicago Bears. Here is Frelund’s proposed trade:

Chicago receives:

• 2021 first-round pick (No. 11 overall)

New York receives:

• 2021 first-round pick (No. 20)
• 2021 second-round pick (No. 52)
• 2021 sixth-round pick (No. 204)

Here is Frelund’s logic:

Why it works for the Bears:

As I said in the blurbage just above, according to my model, QB4 is most likely to be Mac Jones or Trey Lance. Sitting either one of them behind Andy Dalton obviously wouldn’t produce a big win-total uptick in 2021. Jones in particular seems like a first-round pick you’d want to test out sooner than later, based on his quick-passing résumé at Alabama. But getting ahead of Washington (picking at No. 19) and New England (No. 15) — not to mention, Vegas (No. 17) and Philly (No. 12) — creates future value for the reasonable cost of a second- and sixth-round pick.

Why it works for the Giants:

I may have pointed out before that the Giants paid their free agents well (maybe too well) this offseason. But now that’s a sunk cost, and the player-performance projections combine to give this roster some sneaky-good potential. The highest probability fit-based additions (edge, corner, O-line, wide receiver) don’t decrease much from 11 to 20, and adding No. 52 outweighs that by about 0.35 wins.

Are you buying what Frelund is trying to sell here?

I have said previously that the 20th pick is about as far as I would be willing to drop down if I was making the decision for the Giants.

Frelund’s argument is that based on Wins Above Replacement (WAR) projections the combination of 20 and 52 would bring more value to the Giants than the 11th pick all by itself.

If the Giants hit on both picks, maybe she would end up being right.

By the two commonly referenced trade value charts, this trade is just about right. In the traditional Johnson chart, the Giants give up 1,250 points in value and get 1,238 in return. By the modernized Rich Hill trade chart, the Giants give up 358 and get 382 in return.

Dropping down to 20 probably takes Alabama wide receivers DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle, Northwestern offensive lineman Rashawn Slater, linebacker Micah Parsons and cornerbacks Patrick Surtain II and Jaycee Horn out of play.

It might put the Giants in range for offensive linemen like Alijah Vera-Tucker or Tevin Jenkins, whichever of the edge rushers they like, wide receivers like Elijah Moore, Rashod Bateman or Kadarius Toney, or cornerbacks Caleb Farley and Greg Newsome.

Would this move be a win for the Giants?