FanPost

32 Starts -- A Retrospective

Here are some stats for 4 NFL QB's over their first 32 starts. Looking at these numbers, would you guess that any of these players would turn out to be a Hall of Famer? Would any of them make you regret cutting them loose after a start like this?

Games (Starts) Yards Comp % Rating Total TD's
Total Turnovers
Player A 32 6985 60.87% 84.72 50 44
Player B 32 7227 62.50% 85.8 44 44
Player C 32 7874 59.30% 75.98 54 50
Player D 32 6285 59.70% 77.19 38 40


I've gotten used to harsh evaluations of Daniel Jones, that his turnover rate dooms him, that the window has closed to prove himself, and that time has come to cast him aside. In an age that insists with increasing urgency on instant results and immediate gratification, these reactions are unsurprising, but I can't help but think the conclusion may be premature.

As of Sunday, Daniel Jones has started 32 games in the NFL. There are countless more detailed ways to evaluate his play, but at a glance I wonder if comparing these broad stroke numbers will support the criticism or if they may surprise us, and what they might reveal about what kind of future is possible for Jones.

Of the four players above, the lowest completion percentage and passer rating, as well as the most turnovers committed, belong to Player C. His name is Peyton Manning.

Player D has a similar profile, but far fewer touchdowns--fewest in the group and fewer, in fact, than turnovers over this span. That's Drew Brees.

Player A is marginally better in completion percentage, is at least positive in TD-INT's, but still committed 44 turnovers in his first 32 games. This is Tom Brady.

Matching Brady's turnover total (fewer than Manning's), trailing only Peyton in yards, and leading this illustrious group in rating and completion percentage is Player B, or--guess who? Daniel Jones.

Do Jones's numbers over this span deviate enough from these three consensus Hall of Fame QB's to say confidently he won't have a similar trajectory? Or at least, even falling short of this lofty comparison, prove to be a winning franchise quarterback?

Jones may have one or more fatal flaws that will prevent him from succeeding, but there seem to be good examples of similar starts that have turned out pretty well.

Once more for reference, with names:

Games (Starts) Yards Comp % Rating Total TD's
Total Turnovers
Tom Brady 32 6985 60.87% 84.72 50 44
Daniel Jones 32 7227 62.50% 85.8 44 44
Peyton Manning 32 7874 59.30% 75.98 54 50
Drew Brees 32 6285 59.70% 77.19 38 40


(sources: pro-football-reference.com , statmuse.com )
Note: these are numbers from the first 32 starts alone. Stray numbers from the tail end of games entered in relief are disregarded.

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