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Eye on 2020 -- Part 4) Edge Rushers

Last one, I promise! Measurables (and frankly, some stats, footage, and even a few preliminary opinions) gleaned from the avg of reported data on sites like: Draft Scout, Drafttek, Voch Lombardi, Draftsite, The Draft Network, etc.

First of all, my apologies to Robin for not being nearly as thorough as you! Those are big shoes, my friend--and my feet aren't that big yet. :)

And of course, all of these players from each of my "Eye On's" will need to be re-evaluated during, and again after, the upcoming season, and then again after the Combines--as will our team needs. But hey, it's early July, still a few days before training camp opens. Let's have some fun speculating before the pads come on and things get serious.

Once again, let’s start the search "at home," with Markus Golden, Lorenzo Carter and X-Man. Needless to say, we’re all curious as to what those three bring to the table this year. I’d like nothing better than for these three players to shine, with maybe with 24-28 sacks and 30-35 QB hits combined between them. But that’s more wishful thinking than I’m ready to count on just yet. The more likely scenario, unfortunately, is that we don’t get that level of production (I’m talking ~8-10 sacks/10-12 QB hits per player), from even one of them—much less from each of them (&/or, that Markus walks at year's end for a bigger contract). And so, we’ll probably decide we need to draft an edge rusher. So here’s a look at a few I have been watching, in no particular order:

Julian Okwara/Notre Dame, 6' 5", 240/4.53, OLB. Yes, Romeo’s kid brother. If he's really sub-4.55, and has as strong a semblance of rush moves and coverage skills as I’m expecting/hearing about, I want him! I haven’t watched that many of his game films yet, but from what I have seen, plus what I’m reading/hearing, he’s gonna be even better than his brother, and a real force off the edge. (So, yeah, I’m definitely watching all of ND’s games this year.) Of course, we need him to be able to drop into coverage as well, because at 240 lbs, he'll be playing OLB, not DE. So I'll be keeping an eye on that aspect of his game, too. Here's some footage/review of him by The Draft Network: https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/grind-time--notre-dame-de-julian-okwara

Yetur Gross-Matos/Jr, Penn St, 6' 4", 265/4.66, DE-OLB. Both he and my next player, Chase Young, are ‘tweeners, IMO. Perhaps too small to play DE, but too slow to play OLB? Hard to say at this point, but on film, Yetur looks like a beast. If he either adds 10 lbs, &/or gets under 4.6 (so he can play OLB), I’d be thrilled to have him. The problem is, as it stands now, it looks like he will likely go in late Round 1, Round 2 at the latest. Do we want to spend that high a pick on a ‘tweener? When there’s more "proven" players at other key positions still on the board? That’s gonna be a tough call. But if he (or Young) somehow slips to Round 2 or especially Round 3, I’d say grab him.

Chase Young/Ohio St, 6' 5", 265/4.68, DE-OLB. As mentioned, another ‘tweener. Like with Yetur, I really would love a few more lbs &/or a slightly faster 40 time. But the Combine isn’t the whole story. He’s coming from a great program, obviously, that has produced several good-to-outstanding pass rushers recently (the Bosa’s, Dre’Mont Jones, Tyquan Lewis, etc). So he’ll know what he’s doing. But again, value is King. If he drops to the 3rd Round somehow, great. But I wouldn’t take him over, say, Henry Ruggs, Isaiah Simmons, or Prince Tega Wanogho early in Round 2. Not at 265 lbs, and at 4.68, unless his production is just off the charts. (To be clear/fair, some have him rated as a Top-5 pick, so, maybe his production will be off the charts. But I'm concerned about his size enough to take a wait-and-see approach for now. We simply can't afford to be wrong about a 1st round pick, so I want the closest thing to a sure thing possible, and a "tweener just isn't that, IMO.)

AJ Epenesa/Iowa, 6' 6", 280/4.74, DE. Not used much against the run so far (as opposed to Tampa Bay's rookie DE Anthony Nelson, & Titans rookie DE-turned-TE, Parker Hesse, the 2 of whom got most of the early-down reps last year), but AJ looks at least like a solid pass rushing DE--which would mean less need for blitzing to pressure the QB with. I really like BJ Hill, and would keep him in on 1st & 2nd downs, but AJ may be a longer, faster, step up from Hill on 3rd down. Can never have too many really good D-linemen anyway, as the Eagles keep showing us. Keeping them fresh wears down opponents' O-linemen. With Nelson & Hesse gone to the pros, it'll be interesting to see whether AJ becomes more of a complete, 3-down DE now. That said, I wouldn't use a 1st round pick on a part-time player, but if he shows that he can be a run-stuffing 3-down player (very possible), or, if he's available in the 3rd or 4th Round (highly unlikely), he'd be a nice addition to the D-line rotation. AJ obviously plays against top-level Big 10 talent, and last year had a ridiculous 16.5 tackles for loss, on only 37 total tackles! (Not to mention 10.5 sacks.) That's some serious production for a limited-use player. My other concern, though, is that he doesn't seem like a "high motor" guy, even with his limited snap count. I've seen him jogging on the backside of too many plays away from him, or giving up on pass rushes when he's blocked, only to have the QB hold onto the ball for an extra few seconds as a result. But when he'd engaged, he gets it done fairly often.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/aj-epenesa-1.html

Raekwon Davis/Alabama, 6’ 7", 308/5.12, DT-DE. Though he's probably going to be used more as a 3-Tech/DT, I see him as a moveable piece, just as Dexter probably will be. His time is a little slow for a DE, to be honest, but the man is a beast, physically, and may well be one of those who "outplays his Combine numbers." He also obviously comes from a great program, faces top-level competition, both in games and in practice, and has been a productive contributor to an elite program for three years. This is a big year for him, as the focus falls squarely on him to lead ‘bama’s D-line. He seems like a taller, more chiseled BJ Hill to me. Not sure I’d pick him in Round 1 or 2, (because of his slightly limited athleticism, and, greater needs/better options elsewhere) but he’d be a very nice addition to our D-line rotation if we do somehow wind up with him.

Others to watch this year: Nick Coe/Auburn; Kenny Willekes/Mich St; Anfernee Jennings/Alabama, Terrell Lewis/Alabama, Michael Divinity/LSU, Curtis Weaver/Boise St, Kenneth Murray/Oklahoma, & Khalid Kareem/Norte Dame.

As for pros/UFAs: honestly, they’re too expensive! Unless we somehow get another "prove it" kinda deal, like we have with Markus this year, I don’t know how many really good edge rushers are going to be both available and affordable. But at the top of that short list is the Jags’ Yannick Ngakoue (whom we’ve all discussed here before). If he can be had for a reasonable price (via trade &/or as a free agent at the end of the year), of course we’d be thrilled to have him! But this is why edge rushers (and left tackles) go so high in the draft…because once they’re established, they cost too much money. Getting that fifth-year option on their rookie deal is huge.

The upshot of all 4 posts: we trade for (&/or sign a free agent) ILB, so we don’t have to spend such a high pick on one. Then we trade up (some combi of: a vet or two, &/or one of our two 3rd Rounders, &/or a future 1st or 2nd Round pick?), for a 2nd mid-round pick in Round 1, so we can grab an elite OT and an edge rusher in the 1st Round. Hopefully, we grab a tall &/or speedy WR in Round 2, and then perhaps a pretty-good-in-coverage ILB is still there in Round 3, so we can add another one to go with the one we acquired via trade or in free agency. With any remaining picks (we may have traded most of the rest already to move up), we add depth along the O-line--like a Matt Womack, or a Calvin Throckmorton.

There. Our 2020 off-season/draft is settled. Now that wasn’t so hard, was it?!

What say ye, my fellow Giants brethren? Who did I leave out? Where can we look to be more effective/efficient in affordably improving our talent pool for 2020 & beyond? And when does training camp finally start again?!

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