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The Draft's Impact: A Way Too Early Look Ahead, Part II

We continue with Part II of our way, way too early glimpse at the impact of last month's picks on the Giants' 2020 Draft needs. Part I looked at the Offense; Part II turns to the Defensive side of the ball.

While the selection of a QB at #6 overall stole the headlines, Defense was the true focus of the 2019 Draft. After Daniel Jones' selection, the next five picks went toward rebuilding -€” sorry GM Dave, forgot we don't rebuild -€” restocking the defense. We grabbed a Nose Tackle, an outside CB, an EDGE Rusher, a slot CB (who may or may not moonlight at free safety) and an ILB named Ryan . . . not to mention an additional CB in the 6th Round (who may have a scar on his tush) and some depth along the D-Line in the late 7th. All in all, a fine sprinkling across the Defense.

While these selections will impact the future of the franchise at all of these positions, there remain holes to fill for the short- and long-term. Plus, needs will emerge due to expiring player contracts, releases, injuries, players who exceed expectations, others who do not perform, and unpredictable developments that occur every year. As noted in Part I, we will not look into a crystal ball and try to incorporate any of these "unpredictable" elements as we conduct our analysis of the Giants roster. Perhaps a bold predictions column (before training camp!) should come as some point.

As a brief recap, our takeaway on Offensive was that the Giants will be using premium picks in 2020 on a WR with size and future Left Tackle, along with mid-round picks at TE and RB.

Let's take a look at the Giants' Defensive position groups and try to evaluate where we may to find ourselves come April 2020.

Defensive Line. The Giants hope Dexter Lawrence anchors the 3-man front and provides the run-stopping prowess of a young Snacks Harrison and interior pass rush . . . at a fraction of Harrison's price tag. They're also banking on continued growth from B.J. Hill, who notched 5.5 sacks and rated Top 5 among rookies at his position according to Pro Football Focus. As for depth, they will be fielding a new team of reserves with ex-Cardinal Olsen Pierre, second year player R.J. McIntosh, 7th Rounder Chris Slayton and a few others brought into camp as they try to form a new rotation that makes us all forget about the decision to allow for the departure of last year's reserves, Kerry Wynn, Josh Mauro and Mario Edwards.

2020 Draft Outlook: Given that DL Dalvin Tomlinson's contract expires after 2020 and his natural position is 4-3 DT, expect the Giants to plan for his departure (compensatory pick!) and try to find a DE in the 2020 draft (unless one of the above-referenced reserves takes a big step forward in 2019). Given that Tomlinson will be on the team for the 2020 season, the Giants will not be forced to replace him next April and may try to go the small school / diamond-in-the-rough route rather than use a high draft pick.

Now that we run a 3-4 Defense, it is important to note that EDGE Rushers and impact DEs are always in demand. It is especially rare to find DEs for a 3-4 Defense who can both hold up at the point of attack and pressure the QB. J.J. Watts and Richard Seymours do not grow on trees. The Giants will continue to add Defensive Lineman and may do so at any point in the draft. And I mean any point, including Day 1 if a Pro Bowl caliber 5-technique is on the board, notwithstanding need.

EDGE Rusher / OLB. For the second straight year, the Giants selected an OLB/EDGE Rusher in the 3rd Round. That's not a bad strategy . . . if Lorenzo Carter and Oshane Ximines develop. Both are projects -€” Carter, the SPARQ score athlete, and Ximines, small school DE converting to OLB at the NFL level -€” who need time to adjust to the NFL. The Giants hope Carter, after a reasonably successful rookie campaign, is ready for prime time in 2019. Ex-Cardinals Kareem Martin and Markus Golden are hoping to be big contributors as well.

The Giants' pass rush was average, at best, in 2018 and they lost their best player with the trade of Olivier Vernon, whose value pressuring the QB never resulted in big sack numbers during his tenure with the team. Yes, things could click and Golden could bounce back from his knee injury and record double-digit sacks, while Carter and Ximines combine for 15 sacks. But, as every Mets and Knicks fan knows, when you enter a season with LOTS of question marks, you have to assume some of those questions will not be answered. If the Giants EDGE Rushers fail to answer the bell, the Giants may struggle to pressure the Quarterback consistently.

2020 Draft Outlook. It is difficult to say. If Carter records 8 sacks and provides solid overall play and Ximines adds value as a situational pass rusher and is ready to start in 2020, then the Giants may be in decent shape. If not, many fans will bemoan the decision to pass on Kentucky EDGE Rusher Josh Allen for QB Jones and call for the use of a Day 1 or 2 pick. Of course, you can never have too many pass rushers.

Inside Linebacker. The Giants selected Ryan Connelly in the 5th Round and have also brought in UDFA Josiah Tauaefa to compete with special teamer Nathan Stupar and 2018 UDFA Tae Davis for roles behind starters Alec Ogletree and B.J. Goodson. If either rookie (or Davis) can challenge B.J. Goodson for playing time that would be a pleasant development. Of course, it seems just as likely that Connelly merely plays special teams and Tauaefa will be lucky to make the practice squad.

I am curious if DC James Bettcher starts playing around with personnel more in 2019. We haven't really seen his defense in effect and, notably, his use of ILBs last year seemed very conventional.

2020 Draft Outlook. Could April 2020 be the draft the Giants finally invest in a Linebacker? The streak of no first round LBs dates back 35 years to Carl Banks!

Goodson's rookie deal expires after 2019 and Ogletree will be year-to-year at approximately $11 million after this season. Ogletree must play better if he wants to ensure a return in 2020 at that price tag (though lack of position depth may keep him around). Goodson, on the other hand, looks like a goner -€” a two-down 4-3 MLB out of place on this team. The Giants should invest in the draft at ILB at some point - though I feel people have been saying that for a decade. Of note, ILBs got paid big this offseason so that may influence the front office's thinking. That said, asserting that the Giants will draft a Linebacker Day 1 or 2 seems like a fools errand given the team's history.

Cornerback. Gettleman sure did go shopping in the CB aisle last month. First Round pick DeAndre Baker will start opposite Janoris Jenkins, while last year's supplemental 3rd rounder Sam Beal will prepare himself to replace Jenkins after 2019. 6th Round CB Corey Ballentine is a small school plus athlete who held up well at the Senior Bowl. Not sure they can stash him on the practice squad. Meanwhile, 4th Round pick Julian Love out of Notre Dame may compete with Grant Haley for the slot role and get some time at safety. Bettcher may be training Love to be a safety, which creates some interesting dynamics and may help justify carrying an extra CB on the roster.

2020 Draft Outlook. Hey, you always need Corners, right? After taking 3 in 2019, the Giants won't be taking any in 2020 unless a clear BPA situation arises on Day 3 or they like a project in the 6th or 7th rounds.

Safety. To the surprise of many, the Giants elected not to select a safety last month despite the draft's depth at the position. Father Time is undefeated and Antoine Bethea's days are numbered even before he sets foot on the field. Jabill Peppers and 2018 UDFA Sean Chandler (and perhaps Julian Love) offer youth and depth.

2020 Draft Outlook. Unless Love emerges as Bethea's successor, the Giants will draft a Safety no later than the 4th Round in 2020. While a mid-range Free Agent could once again be brought in if Bethea is a one-year Giant, the need to acquire depth at Safety through the draft is clear because Chandler's skill set is somewhat limited and Michael Thomas will be unsigned come 2020 (and on the wrong side of 30).

Summary

We should never be surprised if a 3-4 team drafts a DL or EDGE Rusher on Day 1 or 2, though I'm going to take a "wait and see" approach at EDGE. Until Carter and Ximines (and Markus Golden) take the field, it is really impossible to know what we've got.

A mid/late round Safety should be in order, while an ILB on Day 2 would be a pleasant surprise.

Reviewing our assessments from Parts I & II:

Day 1. LT, DE (EDGE, WR)

Day 2. ILB and WR, T, DE, EDGE (if not selected Day 1)

Day 3. S, RB, TE, G

(As a reminder, the Giants currently expect to have three Day 2 picks, including the Landon Collins compensatory selection.)

Bonus Feature: Let's run a FanSpeak mock, which provides a #8 overall (a number of spots higher than I hope to find us next year).

Round 1. OT Andrew Thomas, Georgia. Starts at RT in 2020, slides over to LT in a year or two at a fraction of Solder's price tag.

Round 2. LB Shaquille Quarterman, Miami. Wouldn't it be nice.

Round 3. DL Labryan Ray, Alabama. Potential first round pick come next year; a 5-techinique starter in Round 3.

Round 3. WR Michael Pittman Jr., USC. Six - Foot - Four.

Round 4. S Shyheim Carter, Alabama. Er um, got some good safeties down there in Alabama. Needs to show he can play some Free Safety, if so will move up the board

With last three picks, RB with some speed and receiving ability, a TE big enough to block who can catch some, and an interior OL. It's too early to know Top 200 players!

Now we get to see if any draft picks or UDFA emerge to alter these dynamics.

The roster process never ends.

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