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Why Drafting A QB In 2020 Is A Precarious Possibility


Russ Wilson and AaRod have left the salary structure quivering on the side of the road. For a long time, the six year Rodgers contract was the ceiling and far too many QBs came really close to his benchmarks. The smart GMs (about half) will be trying to bring in their franchise guys before the norm gets abnormal. A lot of contracts come up in the next two years.

After the top two were locked in there's

Ben and Rivers, probably headed for shorter extensions around $30 M or so

Brees, Brady and say it isn't so Eli staying put for less on a year-to-year basis

Dak, Luck, Mahomes and Watson headed for some high stakes extension negotiations

Winston and Mariota in their prove-it fifth years

Goff and Wentz a year away from their prove-it fifth years after 2018

Carr, Garoppolo, Dalton and even Cam all with 2021 years that are easy to absorb

Flacco and Tannehill more or less a year from free agency

The bottom line is that a good number of teams are at a crossroads with the option of a new QB if the numbers get out of hand. More teams in the mix complicate taking your next QB, especially if you might need to move up.

A second complication is the CBA expiring after 2020. That's a major plus for a team to have a five year commitment with a QB when no one can say what the next agreement will look like. Maybe the fifth year option goes away, maybe the franchise or transition tags do too, or become prohibitively expensive. Maybe there's a cap-free year because they can't come to an agreement. Maybe the NFL caves and approves one and done for freshmen.

If any of those things happen, expect underclassmen to take a long look at not declaring early, and perhaps even seniors sitting it out for a year to see what happens. Things could devolve into an NBA like situation where your first three year rookie contract is just a bridge to the real money.

I think it's important to step up and make a QB decision in anticipation of what may be. Matter of fact, if there was a Rypien, Thorson or Tyree still there in the fourth round, I'd be very tempted to double down and school two with an eye toward trading one in a year or two.

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