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Fantasy Football: Start ‘em, sit ‘em for Week 12

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Questionable fantasy football advice every Tuesday morning

NFL: Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Would you believe it if I told you that the top five fantasy scorers included two Buffalo Bills players? That’s right: Bills QB Josh Allen led all players in points this past week while WR John Brown recorded the fifth-most points. It was a good fantasy week for gunslingers. Lamar Jackson, Jimmy Garoppolo and Dak Prescott all hit the 30-point mark.

And this week? You’re looking at Jackson, Russell Wilson, Christian McCaffrey, Jameis Winston and Deshaun Watson as your highest predicted point-earners.

Let’s check out who had big fantasy performances in Week 11 (standard format):

1) QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills | 33.84 points

2) QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens | 33.48 points

3) QB Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers | 31.66 points

4) QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys | 31.56 points

Here’s who you should start and sit, along with their projected points.

Who to start

1) QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | 21.37 points

Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons have won two games in a row. Now they face the defense giving up the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, in the Bucs.

The Bucs currently allow 2.4 TDs per game to opposing quarterbacks.

2) WR Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | 12.38 points

Not only are the Falcons giving up mega points to opposing QBs, they’re also handing out points to wide receivers. The Falcons give up the most points to opposing wide receiverss by a wide margin, giving up an average of 210 yards per game and over 40 fantasy points.

The matchup will be nice for Calvin Ridley. With Julio Jones commanding number one corner attention, Ridley can add on to his monster performance last week against Carolina (8-143-1).

3) RB Derrius Guice, Washington Redskins (vs. Detroit Lions) | 6.72 points

Despite a low point prediction for Derrius Guice, I think he’s in for a big afternoon against Detroit. The Lions are the second-worst team in the NFL in fantasy points given up to opposing running backs.

Adrian Peterson received just nine carries last week and is widely predicted to under-carry Guice for the remainder of the season. Meanwhile, Chris Thompson has been injured for a while and might need a few weeks to get back into the groove if he does dress this week.

Who to sit

1) RB Brian Hill, Atlanta Falcons (vs. Tampa Bay) | 7.75 points

With Devonta Freeman still nursing an injury, Brian Hill is likely in for another start. The problem is that while the Bucs defense couldn’t stop my one-legged grandmother from catching TD passes, they’re pretty good at stopping the run. The Bucs give up the second-least fantasy points to opposing running backs. Sit Hill for this one.

2) WR John Brown, Buffalo Bills (vs. Denver) | 10.08 points

John Brown has had a very good season this year at 134 fantasy points, but Bills QB Josh Allen is erratic and unpredictable from week to week. This week Brown goes up against Denver’s defense, which currently gives up the third-least fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

Look, the Broncos’ offense is just awful, but it does look like their defense will give Buffalo’s average offense a run for its money.

3) QB Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams (vs. Baltimore) | 17.64 points

I’m guilty as charged. I’ve been starting Goff all season and I’ve finally put a stop to it. He just can’t be trusted as long as this Rams offense keeps being itself, which is an offense that hasn’t done much since last year.

Goff has not eclipsed 25 points this year, and he hasn’t scored more than 6.3 points in three of his last five games. This is not good.


Let’s see how my picks did last week (actual fantasy points):

Start

1) RB Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Kansas City) | points

2) RB Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills (vs. Miami) | 8.40 points

3) WR DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers (vs. Atlanta) | 13.50 points

Sit

1) QB Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (vs. San Francisco) | 26.70 points

2) RB Jordan Howard, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. New England) | OUT

3) WR Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams (vs. Chicago) | OUT