Fantasy Football: Last-minute Week 3 start/sit advice

The fantasy season keeps chugging along. With two weeks in the books, we’ve got an idea how these players are going to be used and we’re starting to get an idea of what the defensive matchups are going to be. While a lot can change over the course of the season — and it will — we’re getting useful information for future fantasy decisions.

Here’s some last-minute start/sit advice for Week 3:

Running back

Start: David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals

Ok, so there’s a lot going on here. First, is one thing I’ve failed to mention over the past couple weeks as a policy I try to follow: start your studs. Johnson, despite his usage and production so far, is still a stud. So if you used a top-3 pick on Johnson, you’re obviously worried through two weeks, but Johnson is (hopefully) talented enough to succeed despite the offense so far and there’s hope maybe they’ll start using him in a way that makes sense for arguably the most dynamic running back in the league.

Start: Matt Breida, San Francisco 49ers

In the San Francisco running back committee, Breida is more of the passing down back and gets more run when the team is trailing. Well, the 49ers play the Kansas City Chiefs this week, who have scored at will to start the season. San Francisco will likely be scored on a bit and will have to throw in order to catch up. Add in that the Kansas City defense has been the worst in the league against running backs in the passing game. That’s a much better game script for Breida than Alfred Morris

Sit: Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans

There was a stretch against the Houston Texans in Week 2 when Henry lined up as a Wildcat quarterback for three straight plays. That might have been a better option than whatever Blaine Gabbert gave them at quarterback. The Titans are either going to roll out Gabbert again or a not 100 percent Marcus Mariota. Either way, that’s a bad recipe against the Jacksonville Jaguars. 23 of Henry’s 27 carries this season have come when the Titans are leading or tied. There are not going to be many plays against Jacksonville when Tennessee is leading or tied. This should definitely be a Dion Lewis game for the Titans, unless they just throw Henry at quarterback again.

Sit: Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers

Williams was a “start” here for the first two weeks because he was in a perfect situation. He was a running back who was going to be in on passing downs on a great offense. But the production never really came, even though the playing time did. Now the Green Bay backfield will add Aaron Jones, who is coming back from suspension. We don’t know how much Jones will play, but it’s likely going to be enough to limit Williams’s snap count and without production when he was getting that time on the field, it’s hard to see a path for Williams to be fantasy relevant.

Wide receiver

Start: Will Fuller, Houston Texans

Fuller isn’t the best wide receiver on the Texans, that’s unquestionably DeAndre Hopkins, but Fuller might be the receiver who makes Deshaun Watson the most comfortable. With Fuller added to the lineup in Week 2, Watson went deep a little more often and found the receiver for eight receptions, 113 yards, and a touchdown on nine targets. The Giants are third in DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers through two weeks, but that’s been from Eli Apple. With Apple likely out, Fuller should see a lot of B.W. Webb and Donte Deayon, which favors the receiver down the field.

Start: DeSean Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

You’re probably riding this Ryan Fitzpatrick-DeSean Jackson train until it breaks down or reaches the part of the track where the rest hasn’t been built yet and should have never been on that part of the track anyway. Jackson only has nine receptions this season, but he leads the NFL is receiving yards through two weeks. No player is getting targeted further down the field, on average. The good news is the Buccaneers are playing the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night, who have struggled on defense and can allow a big play or three.

Sit: Kelvin Benjamin, Buffalo Bills

Opportunity is king in fantasy football and Benjamin is going to get that as the No. 1 receiver in Buffalo, but the quality of that opportunity might be so bad, it’s not worth chasing. There are few positive things to say about the Bills offense through two weeks and they are set to face a Minnesota Vikings defense that’s quite good. It can be hard doing these sits because I don’t know what your roster looks like and I never want to assume you have better options — but you most definitely have better options.

Sit: Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers

Williams broke through with a score last week against the Bills, but it’s hard to see that coming again this week. The Chargers will face the Rams, who might have the best cornerback duo in the league right now. The Rams are only allowing 5.9 fantasy points per game to wide receivers as a group — not per wide receiver… collectively. Through two weeks the Rams have only allowed 98 yards to opposing wide receivers total. The second-best team, the Giants (what?), have allowed 191 yards to wide receivers. Stay very far away from this matchup.

Tight end

Start: George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

Don’t let the disappointment of a two-catch, 22-yard day in Week 2 put you off from Kittle. He’s still seeing 24.7 percent of San Francisco’s air yards, which is fourth among tight ends behind Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, and Travis Kelce. As we noted before, the 49ers are probably going to have to pass a bit to catch up on Sunday and it helps that the Chiefs have been one of the worst team in the league so far defending tight ends, allowing 100.5 yards per game to the position and the second-most fantasy points. The big game for Kittle is coming.

Sit: Ricky Seals-Jones, Arizona Cardinals

Arizona’s offense is a mess and while you’re holding out hope Johnson can overcome, it’s not as simple for the other parts. Seals-Jones has gotten six targets in each of the first two games, but has 36 receiving yards total. That’s what happens when the offense is built around short, ineffective passes. Seals-Jones is going up against a Chicago Bears defense that is first in DVOA against tight ends through two weeks. With so many more streamable options at tight end, it’s easy to take a pass on Seals-Jones even when his talent and role should be producing more than it has.