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Scouting Giants Episode 1

WepaLibrarian is evaluating potential draftees of the Giants for the 2019 NFL Draft season. Stay posted for updates every week with his individual thoughts and analysis. Thanks for your support. Reach out @WepaLibrarian on Twitter.

Considering all of the hype that surrounded the New York Giants #2 overall selection last year, the Big Blue faithful will potentially be even more tuned in this coming April after that pick was not a quarterback. Heading into this new season, the narrative has been that Eli Manning, the long standing face of the franchise, will remain just that.

Top to bottom, Giants brass has emphasized that fact, seemingly apologizing for that embarrassment of a benching that occurred a season ago by former head coach Ben McAdoo. Eli Manning, whether or not he returns to that 2011 form that saw him amass nearly 5,000 passing yards and notch two 1,000+ yard receivers, is going to eventually need a replacement. At 37, it is unrealistic to hold him to the same standard and expectation that has been attached to Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and other passers who have achieved the very rare resistance of Father Time a little longer than usual.

And with two games into 2018, fans already have patience wearing thin, including myself. Alex Tanney, the current Giants back up QB, and Kyle Lauletta, the 2018 4th round pick out of Richmond, are both unlikely to be sure fire replacements as of right now.

To appease that, I'm evaluating a quarterback today that could potentially be the future, even if it means spending some time riding the pine until Gettleman and co. admit that the best days of "Easy E" are behind him.

*These evaluations are meant to be introductions to the prospects, and more detailed evaluations will come later once the college football season ends and the Draft declarations are set. The following are my thoughts including their performances from their games that have taken place thus far.

First up, we have a gifted quarterback from a program that has produced many a high draft pick from the position: QB Justin Herbert.

Justin Herbert | Quarterback | Junior | Oregon | 6'6", 235 lbs

Herbert is truly an interesting prospect to evaluate because of the program he's attached to. Herbert has quietly been the sole reason Oregon remains a relevant, competitive program in today's CFB landscape. In his eight games starting last season prior to injury, the Ducks averaged a truly mind boggling 52.1 points per game. After his injury, they averaged 15 points per game. Now it is fair to expect a team to falter when an important player goes down by injury, but to drop an astounding 37.1 points in average per game shows that Herbert is an especially integral part of their offensive attack, and possibly the driving force behind their potency.

The Ducks' passer is a serious prototype for the NFL position. Physically, he's an imposing specimen with a rocket arm. He is reliable in his form, transitioning his weight well through his throwing motion and his base remains solid from throw to throw. The ball often has a tight spiral, and a noticeable yet beautiful arc on deep throws, which signifies his definite arm strength and focused mechanics.

Herbert's ball placement is very frequently toward the front of a receiver and away from the covering defensive back. His accuracy is especially obvious while on the move. The ability to contort his body to throw while running to his left is what caught my eye in the first few games of study.

To have such mobility, body control and consistency in his arm shows the true athleticism that elevates what is already an ideal frame. His passes always have zip and a confidence in their location. I'm always in awe at how effortlessly he flings the rock.

In terms of flaws, Herbert must improve his reading the field and decision making.

There are too many times that his throws are rushed or forced into tighter windows, whether or not he's under pressure. As such, his accuracy can take a dip. This indicates that sometimes Herbert is not progressing through those reads well enough to at least accept check down throws or a sack. He may have the arm to complete spectacular throws, but the best QBs know when to flex that trait.

Statistically, this shows. This year, he's notched two out of three games with sub 50% completion percentage against sub par competition (47.6% vs Portland State & 47.1% vs San Jose State). Those two games give him a total of seven games with a sub 60% completion percentage out of 19 total career games. While drops have plagued some of his receivers, Herbert still needs to provide better precision on those passes and make better overall decisions. He must take what the defense gives him and let his receivers have a chance to make a play. Improving his draft value will be heavily reliant on this, especially considering the spread attack he runs with the Ducks. Many will point to that "transition to the NFL" stigma as a flaw, and question if he can make the jump off of that. It is seemingly fair, considering there aren't many Oregon passers that have really achieved a top level status in the pros. However, adding in the many high percentage throws a spread attack schedules in, Herbert's completion percentages shouldn't be so low. He has a chance, this season, to prove that the drops his receivers almost readily commit are the real reason.

While I have pointed out his mechanics and accuracy, especially on the move, as qualities that stand out, I am most impressed by his unwavering poise and toughness. Herbert, whether winning or losing, is a true gamer. If he's been sacked all game, has not consistently completed passes, or his team is struggling to find a groove, Herbert plays into a rhythm despite the deficiencies of the Oregon team as a whole. Such was obvious in Oregon's match against Boise State a year ago and in all three games this year thus far, including those drops. In addition, his feel for the pocket is exceptional for a spread QB and has noticeably improved from last year. In the first three games of this season, his patience for handling pressure is more pronounced as the pocket breaks down. His eyes stay downfield, and he hardly drops them to seek and avoid the rush.

That pocket awareness is a supremely underrated trait, in my humble opinion. Quarterbacks that have a natural feel for the area around them and for impending doom from pass rushers are elevated threats to defenses, especially when that trait is paired with the mobility that Herbert boasts. It's a difficult trait to develop in quarterbacks, and Herbert seems to have it second nature.

Herbert, in my opinion, has the potential to be another spread transition quarterback to do real damage once he's gained a rapport with his teammates and the pro level speed. He wows with exceptional arm strength and mobility, but its his competitive nature and poise that complement his physical abilities as true intangibles. What I hope to see is this poise remain once the schedule takes a more difficult turn as the Pac-12 is always stacked with NFL talent. In addition, Herbert has to process more consistently and get those completions up if he wants to avoid any significant backlash from scouts. If he performs with improvements and lasts an entire season, he's possibly the first passer off the board and a top five selection.

My Grade: Mid 1st round

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