The goal for teams in any NFL player draft is to maximize the value of players selected. With only one player remaining on their roster from the drafts between 2008 and 2014, it is easy to anecdotally say that the New York Giants haven’t done that.
Is there, though, a statistical way to measure that value? It is an interesting question on the heels of Jesse Bartolis’s look at underrated players who could outperform their 2018 slots.
In the fantastic, newly-released Inside the Pylon Draft Guide [available here] Jeff Feyerer tries to do come up with a formula. Feyerer uses the Approximate Value data from Pro Football Reference to judge which general managers have gotten the best value from the players they have selected during the 2002-2015 time period.
The results should encourage Giants fans. During that time period new Giants GM Dave Gettleman ran three drafts for the Carolina Panthers — 2013, 2014, 2015. The results of Feyerer’s study show the 16 players Gettleman selected had an Average Value 0.63 points above average. That placed Gettleman third among all active GMs.
Fifteen of the 16 players Gettleman drafted in that time period are still active NFL players. Seven are still with the Panthers.
In that same time period, the Giants drafted 20 players. Sixteen are still in the NFL, but only three with the Giants. Judge for yourselves who you believe has over-performed or under-performed their draft slots.
None of this is to say that we know Gettleman will conduct a solid draft for the Giants. In the sample size we have from his drafts in Carolina, Gettleman didn’t really hit any grand slam home runs. He also, however, hasn’t had wild swings and misses. His drafts have, by and large, been solid ones where he has gotten above average production from the draft slots he was working with.
If he can do that for the Giants this time around, it will only help them get better.