The Case for Trading Down

The New York Jets drastically over paid for the 3rd overall pick. According to the draft value chart, the 3rd overall pick is normally worth 2,200 points. The Jets traded 2,960 points worth of picks for the # 3 overall. The # 2 overall pick is normally worth 2,600 points. If the Jets-Colts trade set the market for trading up in this draft, the Giants should get 3,500 points worth of draft picks for that pick.

The Buffalo Bills have to pay whatever the Giants asking price is. Why? Two reasons: 1.) If the Bills do not trade up to # 2, they will get, at best, the fourth QB taken in this draft. Even if the Giants don’t want a QB at # 2 overall, the Broncos may be a willing trade partner to jump ahead of the Jets, leaving the Bills only able to trade up with Cleveland at 4. 2.) If the QB the Jets take at # 3 ends up being a franchise guy, the Bills fan base will know that the Bills could have gotten that guy and didn’t.

The Bills have two picks in each of the first three rounds (# 12 & 22 in the first round, 53 & 56 in the second round and 65 & 96 in the third round). The Giants could extract AT MINIMUM picks # 12, 22, 53 or 56 & a 2019 first rounder. Even if the Bills get one of the top 2 QBs in this draft, it’s still likely that their first round pick in 2019 is a top 10 pick. The Giants can seek their QB of the future with that pick if the staff decides Davis Webb isn’t their guy. When we’re talking about that kind of a haul, I think the Giants have to make that trade.

The Bills have already traded one of their better players (Cordy Glenn) to move up. If the Bills want to give up fewer picks, the Giants could ask for another one of their prized players: Tre’davious White. He was rated as ‘Elite’ and the #2 CB in the NFL by Pro Football Focus. He’s 23 and under his rookie contract for at least three more seasons, costing the Giants very little in salary. Is it likely that the Bills trade White? No, but that just gives the Giants more leverage when asking for more picks.

The question was asked on Twitter if the players picked with two 1st round picks would be more impactful than Saquon Barkley. That’s the wrong question. The question is whether the FOUR or more players chosen with all the draft picks obtained in the deal would make a bigger impact. So who could the Giants target with the picks they get:

Pick 12: With four or even FIVE QBs going in the first 11 picks, the elite position players must fall. The Giants could target OT Mike McGlinchey (have him compete at RT with Flowers while figuring out if he is the LT of the future); S Derwin James (bigger, more athletic version of Deone Bucannon for Bettcher’s Moneybacker); CB Denzel Ward (ok, the jury’s still out on the last OSU CB the Giants drafted...); LB Roquan Smith (versatile LB for Bettcher); OLB Harold Landry (speed rusher not currently on the roster)

Pick 22: McGlinchey or OT Connor Williams, G Isaiah Wynn (the next best thing behind Nelson at G); CB Josh Jackson (bigger CB); CB Mike Hughes (ball-hawking CB & elite returner); RB Derrius Guice; LB Raashan Evans.

Pick 53 and/or 56: RBs Sony Michel, Nick Chubb or Rashaad Penny, Interior OL Will Hernandez, James Daniels, Billy Price, CBs Anthony Averett or Donte Jackson, LBs Leighton Vander Esch, Lorenzo Carter.

Needless to say, I think the Giants should trade back If the Giants draft wisely, which Gettlemen has a pretty good track record of, the Giants should come out of this trade with at least 4 starters which is more impactful than one starter at position that has been devalued in the league*.

*Both Super Bowl teams had a running back by committee with several different guys.

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