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BBV Mailbag: Draft trade — would the Buffalo Bills be a good partner for Giants?

Let’s examine a new draft trade scenario

By Ed Valentine
Carolina at Jacksonville
Brandon Beane and Dave Gettleman when they worked together in Carolina. Gettleman was GM, and Beane was assistant GM.
Jeff Siner/Charlotte Observer/TNS via Getty Images

Should the New York Giants use the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft to select a player, probably Josh Rosen or Sam Darnold, the consensus top quarterbacks available? Should they trade down, acquiring more draft choices to help supplement the roster and letting the quarterback chips fall where they may?

This is the central question for general manager Dave Gettleman heading into the draft. Everyone has an opinion, and we discussed this in some detail in last week’s mailbag. There is, however, a particular scenario that has come up repeatedly over the past week that we should discuss. It will be the only question we use in this week’s mailbag.

Paul Miller e-mailed the question this way:

If I’m the GM I try to get Buffalo’s 2 first rounders and one of their 2 second rounders this year plus their first rounder and a third round pick next year. That gives the Giants 5 of the first 66 picks in the draft and gets you at least 2 oline guys and a couple of lb’s that can help you right away. Plus you might get lucky and have QB drop to you like Baker Mayfield. If you don’t get a QB this you you’ve got a couple of 1’s in next year’s draft to work with. Do you think that it’s a possible scenario for Gettleman?

Ed says: Basically, the question is “are the Buffalo Bills a viable trade partner for the Giants?”

Our friend Paul e-mailed it, and we will talk about his proposed scenario. The Huddle Report’s Drew Boylhart tweeted about the possibility.

Eric Galko of the Sporting News even did a mock draft where this scenario played out. Let’s discuss.

First, Miller’s scenario.

Two first-rounders and one of their two second-rounders this year, plus their first-rounder and a third-round pick next year. That’s the haul being asked for by our wannabe GM.

Never happen. In a million years. That would get Brandon Beane fired as Bills’ GM, maybe before he even finished speaking to Gettleman to make the deal.

The Jimmy Johnson trade value chart shows a difference of 1,800 points between the second overall pick and the 21st. To make that up, the Bills would need to give the Giants both of their first-round picks in this draft, Nos. 21 and 22, and at least one Day 2 pick.

A new trade value chart created by Rich Hill of Pats Pulpit shows a difference of 448 points between the No. 2 and No. 21 selections. Using that chart, it would probably cost the Bills the 21st pick and a pair of Day 2 picks.

Would you make either of those deals, especially if one of the Day 2 picks came in the 2019 draft?

Raptor’s take: No deal,
at least not for this duo

Would I take the Bills’ two first round picks as well as a Day 2 pick for the second overall pick? 

At first blush, probably not. 

Of course, we don’t have access to all the factors in the hole calculus that would be behind the trade. For instance, we don’t know what the Giants think of any of the players at the top of the draft (quarterback or otherwise). We don’t know what Shurmur and Gettleman think about Eli Manning. Perhaps they believe he has another three years of high level football in him and his apparent ‘decline’ is more an artifact of Ben McAdoo than any drop-off in Eli’s skills since 2015. We don’t know if Davis Webb made a bigger impact on the coaches who saw him every day than the media has been lead to believe. 

We also don’t know what other deals might be on the table. If the Giants could add Day 2 picks while staying in the top 10, that would probably be preferable to trading down to the bottom third of the round. 

If that trade is the Giants best option: If Gettleman and Shurmur do not believe  that they will have the grace period to “rebuild. If they are more confident in what is in-house than fans and the media are, and nobody is offering more for the pick, I would have to judge the trade based on the picks made. 

Those picks, Okorafor and Guice, don’t exactly do it for me. I like both players, but I would be hesitant to pick either in the first round. Okorafor has all the traits to be a starting offensive lineman, but to my eye he has yet to put it all together. Guice is a talented running back, but Saquon Barkley is the only back I would take in the first for the Giants, as his extreme blend of size, speed, power, agility, explosiveness, and versatility make him much more than “just” a running back to me. My offensive lineman of choice in a trade down would be Mike McGlinchey, who has experience on both sides of the line in a Pro-Style offense and could start immediately. With the second  pick, I think I would  take Will Hernandez to finish building the OL in one fell swoop.

— Chris Pflum

This is what Galko did.

In his mock, he had the Giants exchange the second overall pick for Buffalo’s 21st and 22nd picks in this year’s first round and a 2019 early-round pick. Galko didn’t specify whether that meant second round, third round, or what.

The Bills used that pick to select Rosen, with Darnold having gone to the Cleveland Browns first overall.

The Giants? In Galko’s mock they used their two picks on LSU running back Derrius Guice (21st) and Western Michigan offensive tackle Chukwuma Okorafor (22nd).

Is that, plus a Day 2 pick next year, enough for you?

It’s not for me.

Dropping from No 2 to Nos. 21 and 22, even with two first-round picks, is sliding way too far down the board for me. Instead of looking at the premier players, by the time you get to 21 and 22 you are looking at guys about whom there will be arguments over whether they should be first- or second-round selections.

I maintain that trading down, especially if the Browns take the Giants’ first choice at quarterback, is an excellent strategy. I believe, though, that the Giants should try to stay in the top 10 if they do decide to move down. There are several potential trade partners who would allow them to do that.

Cleveland — If the Browns want the No. 2 pick as well as No. 1, they could give the Giants the No. 4 pick and two of their three second-round selections (33rd, 35th, 64th).

Denver — The Broncos have the fifth overall pick. The Giants could swap picks there, pick up Denver’s second-round pick (No. 40) and at least one more selection later, or a 2019 Day 2 pick.

NY Jets — This one might be tough emotionally for Giants fans, but could be smart business. There is a 900-point difference between the second and sixth picks, per the trade chart. The Jets have two second-round picks (37th and 49th) that total 910 points in trade chart value. That would give the Giants four picks in the first 49 selections.

Your thoughts, Giants fans?

[E-mail Ed at bigblueview@gmail.com or via the Big Blue View Contact Page | Follow Big Blue View on Twitter | ‘Like’ Big Blue View on Facebook]

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