Giants’ Playoff Odds: Well, They Aren’t Good

Fans of the New York Giants don’t have much optimism that their team, one with Super Bowl ambitions, will even make the playoffs after starting the season 0-2. The results of our Fan Confidence Poll tell us that, with only 23 percent of voters believing the Giants will reach the playoffs.

The Giants are now left hoping for a rebound like the one the 2007 championship team had. A number of players have referenced that team in discussing their current plight.

What chance, though, do the Giants really have? Maybe you already know that since 1990 only 12 percent of teams starting 0-2 have made the playoffs. After 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season, Football Outsiders puts the Giants chances at precisely 12.1 percent. (ESPN Insider)

The Giants are the lone team from last year's playoffs to start this season 0-2, and no winless team is underperforming its preseason projection more. Our forecast before the season gave the Giants a 6.5 percent mean projected DVOA, which ranked seventh in the NFL. In 50,000 simulations, they made the playoffs 41 percent of the time.

While the offense is the most obvious problem so far, it's the defense and special teams that are truly falling short of expectations. The offense so far (25th) isn't much worse than last year (22nd). However, the 2016 Giants were second in the league in defensive DVOA, trailing only Denver. Their average projection before the season was fourth. Through two games, they are a dismal 26th. The special teams are even worse, ranking 31st after giving up an 88-yard punt return touchdown and a horrendous Aldrick Rosas kickoff from the 20 that went out of bounds and handed Detroit the ball on the Giants' 45.

If we were to simulate the season based only on how well the Giants have played through two weeks, without incorporating our preseason projection, the Giants' playoff odds would drop to 4.1 percent.

So, if you are one of those fans who is having hard time being optimistic there is a reason why.