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NFL picks, predictions against the point spread, Week 13

What does Jesse’s crystal ball say this week?

Seattle Seahawks v San Francisco 49ers
The Jimmy Garoppolo era is set to begin in San Francisco.
Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images

I have been so inconsistent this year. Last week was another terrible week for me picking games, 3-12-1. Hopefully I can turn it around down the stretch.

Washington (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Washington is tough and they are always in the game, but they are pretty beat up and the Cowboys look like they might be getting back Tyron Smith, they have Dan Bailey back. I like the Cowboys here at home on Thursday night.

Pick: Cowboys win out-right

Detroit Lions (+3) at Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens haven’t been very good on offense they are dead last in the league in pass yards and 31st in total yardage, but have been able to parlay a +11 turnover ratio. I think this game will be close and I’ll take the points.

Pick: Lions

San Francisco 49ers (+3) at Chicago Bears

The Jimmy Garoppolo era begins here. I’ll take the 49ers.

Pick: 49ers

Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Atlanta Falcons

This game will be won on third down. The Vikings give up a fantastic 28.5 conversion rate on third down the Falcons are giving up 39.1 percent. I think the Vikings are legitimately a talented team on both sides of the ball with their biggest question mark being their quarterback. A quarterback who is playing very well right now 14 touchdown passes with 5 interceptions.

Pick: Vikings

New England Patriots (-8.5) at Buffalo Bills

The Bills have a pretty good pass defense and don’t turn the ball over much. I think they could keep this one close here at home, but I don’t think they can win.

Pick: Bills

Denver Broncos (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins

The wheels have fallen off the Broncos’ bus and they are carrying a -83 point differential. They haven’t scored more than 23 points in the last seven games.

Pick: Dolphins

Houston Texans (+7) at Tennessee Titans

The Titans rely on their run game and the Texans have one of the best rush defenses in the game. I think this game will be lower scoring and fairly close.

Pick: Texans

Indianapolis Colts (+9.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

I’ll take the 10 points. I don’t trust the Jaguars offense enough to consistently cover double-digit point spreads.

Pick: Colts

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) at Green Bay Packers

The Packers are home underdogs to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? It’s not who you play but when you play them. I’ll take the Buccaneers.

Pick: Bucs

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at New York Jets

The Jets are actually playing better than the Chiefs over the last month than the Chiefs and they are getting 3.5 points at home. This is my favorite play of the week.

Pick: Jets

Carolina Panthers (+4) at New Orleans Saints

The Panthers are 5-1 on the road this year and on a four game win streak. The Panthers are No. 3 in the league against the rush and the Saints resurgence as come mostly from their ability to rush the ball, the Panthers could cause problems for the Saints and I see this being a close game.

Pick: Panthers

Cleveland Browns (+14) at San Diego Chargers

Chargers are too inconsistent for me to feel comfortable to lay 14 points.

Pick: Browns

Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Arizona Cardinals

Pick: Rams

New York Giants (+8.5) at Oakland Raiders

Sometimes when teams go through something like this there is a bonding that occurs and a fight that hasn’t been seen before. I don’t know if the Giants will do that. I also don’t know if the Giants have enough talent to make anything happen, but the Raiders are not really a good team either. They give up a terrible third down conversion rate (45 percent) as the Giants do (41.2 percent). Neither team rushes the ball well Raiders (91.0), Giants (91.3). All of this is to say neither team is any good, which is why 8.5 points is too much.

Pick: Giants

Philadelphia (-6) at Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are tough at home but are hurting, still they are top 10 in both offense and defense.

Pick: Seahawks

Pittsburgh (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Even when the Bengals are playing their best they still have major problems with the Steelers.

Pick: Steelers