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NFL picks, predictions against the point spread, Week 11

What does Jesse see in his crystal ball?

NFL: New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills
Nathan Peterman will start ot QB for Buffalo this week.
Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

Another terrible week last week is challenging my winning record for the season, but I’m barely just clinging on. Hopefully I can get a run here (and not the kind of run the Giants are on).

Tennessee Titans (+7) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Even though the Titans have a good record (6-3) there point differential is negative (-8). They run the ball well and Marcus Mariota doesn’t turn it over often. I think 7 points is too many against a Steelers team that has been extremely inconsistent this year.

Pick: Titans

Final score: Steelers 40, Titans 17

Detroit Lions (-3) at Chicago Bears

I like the Lions for more than 3. They stop the run fairly well and have been better on the road than they are at home.

Pick: Lions by more than 3

Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) at New York Giants

The Giants’ defense has to step it up here doesn’t ity? Even the worst teams don’t always lose games by this many points. Getting 10.5 points at home is a lot and I would take the points in that situation almost all the time.

Pick: Giants

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1) at Miami Dolphins

Tampa is solid at home (3-2) and dreadful on the road (0-4).

Pick: Dolphins

Baltimore Ravens (-2) at Green Bay Packers

The Ravens have a tough pass defense and the Packers can’t throw the ball consistently with Brett Hundley.

Pick: Ravens

Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) at Minnesota Vikings

This is probably the best game of the week. The Rams look like a legitimately good offense that has a fast, explosive defense. The Vikings have one of the more talented rosters in the league, but have been held back by quarterback play over the past couple of years. Is Case Keenum actually a good QB? I”m not so sure. I think the Rams are a more balanced team and will show that they are for real this week.

Pick: Rams win outright

Arizona Cardinals (-1) at Houston Texans

I think the Texans will win this game at home out-right.

Pick: Texans

Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) at Cleveland Browns

I think Blake Bortles will make enough mistakes to keep the Browns in the game. I’m just worried that the Browns won’t be able to score against what is maybe the league’s best defense.

Pick: Browns

Washington (+7.5) at New Orleans Saints

Washington doesn’t quite have enough to win a whole lot of games, but they are a dangerous team that is in every single game. The 7.5 points is too many to give up.

Pick: Washington

Buffalo Bills (+4.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

With Tyrod Taylor I like the Bills here, but with Nathan Peterman it makes it very difficult. The Chargers best strength is that they really an rush the passer against anyone. They have maybe the leagues best pass rushing tandem. I think they will give the rookie all he can handle.

Pick: Chargers by more than 4.5

Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) at Denver Broncos

The Giants beat the Broncos so bad a few weeks ago that they knocked the good right out of that team. What the heck happened to this team? They looked like one of the league’s best early and have been on a steady decline. The Bengals have a lot of talent on defense and the Broncos haven’t been able to play offense at all. I like the Bengals here.

Pick: Bengals

New England (-6.5) vs Oakland in Mexico City

The Raiders have zero interceptions this year. That’s an amazing stat. The Patriots don’t really turn the ball over much and they are coming off a bye with two weeks to prepare.

Pick: Patriots

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Eagles have looked like the best team in the league all year. The Cowboys running game doesn’t look the same without Elliot and Tyron Smith. Smith might not play in Sunday’s game and if so that’s a big problem.

Pick: Eagles

Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Seattle Seahawks

I like Seattle here.

Pick: Seahawks

Season record

Week 1: 10-5

Week 2: 7-9

Week 3: 10-5

Week 4: 10-6

Week 5: 7-6-1

Week 6: 10-4

Week 7: 0-12-2

Week 8: 6-7

Week 9: 7-4-1

Week 10: 3-10-1

Season overall: 65-64-6