Picking against the spread is difficult and success is not promised. Here’s what I said last week: “Been an extremely busy week at work and my research is a little less than I usually do. A lot of road favorites this week, too. Those weeks I don’t love.” And I had an extremely impressive week last week. So impressive I managed to pick games and go 0-12-2. That’s really amazing. Truly. It’s almost impossible to miss on every game, but I did. The worst week (by far) in the four years I’ve been doing this for Big Blue View.
Things change so much from week to week, but I feel better heading into this week and took more time to look at things. I also think there are more interesting games this week than there were last week, even though the week is pretty heavy with byes. Here’s what I think will happen during the week.
Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Miami Dolphins
What in the world happened to Joe Flacco, who might be the worst quarterback in the league right now.
Cleveland Browns (+9.5) vs Minnesota Vikings (in London)
The Browns are a terrible team, but they may win a game this year and London games tend to be sloppy.
Chicago Bears (+9) at New Orleans Saints
I think the Bears are a tough team, not a great one and they tend to keep games close. I also think this game could be a game with a whole lot of running yards which speeds up the clock and is more likely to keep the score close.
Pick: I’ll take the 9 points
Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) at New York Jets
Perception before the season is that the Jets were tanking the season and were on their way to a historically bad season, but competent quarterback play from Josh McCown and a terrific defensive line have them very competitive.
I think the Panthers are the better team and they are getting points, but The big issue could be the Buccaneers talented receiving corps and the Panthers brutal secondary, also the Panthers are coming into this game pretty beat up.
I like big point spreads typically. I’m interested to see how the Eagles o-line fares without Jason Peters. I think until they win, every team will also get the 49ers best shot. I also like teams coming off embarrassing blowouts the previous week.
Oakland Raiders (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills finally got their run game going last week and they do a very good job of protecting the football. They are +10 in turnover ratio and they play us solid defense. I like the Bills.
Indianapolis Colts (+10.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
What about the Bengals offense has shown me that they should be 10 point favorites against anyone? Neither team has any offense, so I’d expect a lower scoring game and I’ll take the points.
L.A. Chargers (+7) at New England Patriots
Is the Patriots defense finally rounding into form? It’s absolutely incredible how diverse and competitive they remain despite the obstacles they face. That being said I like the Chargers here, Tom Brady is getting hit at a pace he’s unaccustomed to and the Chargers may have the best one-two pass rush in the league with Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa. Plus, Philip Rivers is having a solid season.
Houston Texans (+5.5) at Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks overwhelmed the Giants offense and had the Giants defense playing the whole game. I don’t think that will happen vs the Texans. The Texans offense has turned explosive with Watson (who has 15 touchdown passes already this season) and I think we’ll see the Texans connect more on Russell Wilson and that terrible offensive line.
Dallas Cowboys (-2) at Washington
Washington is a fairly dangerous team and are a divisional home underdogs.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Detroit Lions
The Steelers seem to be rounding into form and when they do they are extremely dangerous.
Denver Broncos (+7) at Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos haven't been playing well, but divisional rivalries always seem to bring out the best in teams and the Broncos are better then they have played as of late.
Week 1: 10-5
Week 2: 7-9
Week 3: 10-5
Week 4: 10-6
Week 5: 7-6-1
Week 6: 10-4
Week 7: 0-12-2
Season overall: 49-43-4