Another winning week for me sets me up for 49-31-2 against the spread on the season. I’ll have the picks for you this week but very little explanations and a caveat for you if you throw your money around based on my picks. Been an extremely busy week at work and my research is a little less than I usually do. A lot of road favorites this week, too. Those weeks I don’t love.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Oakland Raiders
I don’t like Thursday night games, but if I’m going to pick, I’m going to go with the better team — especially with a close point spread.
Tennessee Titans (-6) at Cleveland Browns
Might be against my better judgment, but feeling the Browns this week (against the spread).
The Colts are brutal, but they are playing a divisional game at home as underdogs and the Jaguars will likely be without their best offensive player (Leonard Fournette).
Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bengals have no secondary receiving option and it’s really hurting their offense. They can’t wait to get John Ross back to see if they can open up their offense a bit. The Bengals are, however, playing very good defense (No. 2 in the league in PPG). I like them here.
Baltimore Ravens (+5.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Joe Flacco has been absolutely awful this year, but 5.5 points is too much for me with Case Keenum likely starting.
New York Jets (+3) at Miami Dolphins
I really liked the Dolphins last week, the things they were doing on the field weren’t translating to wins, but they are not playing terribly. I like them here as well.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) at Buffalo Bills
Who’s starting this game for the Buccaneers? Makes it hard to prognosticate when you don’t know the starting QB.
Carolina Panthers (-3) at Chicago Bears
I’ve liked the Bears all year as a team that plays tough close football games, but not enough points here for me. Panthers defensive line is no joke will make it tough for the rookie.
New Orleans (-5.5) at Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers have legit Super Bowl aspirations. Colin Kaepernick has legit NFL talent. The QB’s they have on their roster do not. Brett Hundley is no good. Also, the Packers run defense hasn’t been as dominant as it was earlier in the season and the Saints might be figuring out some things in their run game after the release of Adrian Peterson. Plus, the Saints have two guys listed on their injury report, 13 players on their report for the Packers.
Dallas Cowboys (-6) at San Francisco 49ers
Too many road favorites this week. Nothing more dangerous than a wounded animal.
Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) at New York Giants
Were the Giants the team we were finally expecting last week vs the Broncos all year. Or, was it a case of the proverbial trap team where a good team comes across the country to a highly motivated team and just didn’t bring it? I’m not sure. The reason I like the Giants this week to at least keep the game close is because one of the Giants strengths (they have a strong defensive line) goes well against one of the Seahawks biggest weaknesses (they can’t block anyone).
Denver Broncos (+1) at L.A. Chargers
This might be a home game for the Broncos the way the Charger fans don’t show up.
Falcons (+3.5) at New England Patriots
Sometimes I do believe motivation is a real factor in what will happen on the field: see Giants last weekend. (Often it’s media story line driven and doesn’t ‘have a whole lot to do with what’s on the field it’s more about health/matchups). This is one of those. The Falcons have been waiting for this game all year. I like the Falcons to win out-right.
Washington (+5.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles are a good team, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Washington team won out-right. Divisional game with two competent teams, and the point spread is too big.
On the season
Week 1: 10-5
Week 2: 7-9
Week 3: 10-5
Week 4: 10-6
Week 5: 7-6-1
Week 6: 10-4
Season overall: 49-31-2