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0-16? Yes, The Giants Could Sink That Low

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Daunting schedule, analytics, say it is possible

Los Angeles Chargers v New York Giants
How far could the Giants fall?
Photo by Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

The first sub-head in Tuesday’s ‘Valentine’s Views’ is “This Is Going To Get Worse” for the New York Giants before it gets better.

How much worse? As I detailed earlier, the Giants have 11 games left and will probably not be favored to win any of them. That means 0-16 is undoubtedly within reach. And it’s not that hard to imagine.

Using a computer simulation, The Washington Post says the Giants have a 6 percent chance of going winless. The Post pegs the Giants for 1.2 expected wins over those final 11 games.

Using the same data that helped construct our power rankings, we can simulate the rest of the season thousands of times to get a sense of what to expect from the Giants the rest of the season. I caution you — it isn’t pretty.

The most likely outcome is the Giants win two games this season, the Week 10 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers and the Week 16 game against the Arizona Cardinals. However, that was based on having a fully healthy receiving corp. If you discount the production from Shepard, Marshall, Harris and Beckham — who account for four of the team’s eight receiving touchdowns — it will be surprising if the Giants manage more than one win over the next 11 weeks.

Since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule the Giants have never won fewer than three games. Maybe they will make a little history this time around.