NFL picks against the spread, Week 3

Houston Texans (-1) at New England Patriots

Down to their third-string quarterback without their best offensive weapons against the playoff-caliber Houston Texans. They can't possibly pull out this victory, can they? If Bill Belichick isn't the coach this spread is Texans -3, at least. Betting against the Patriots at home is a bold move, but I think it's still usually more about the Pros and Joes and less about the X's and O's and right now the Pats are hurting.

Pick: Texans

Denver Broncos (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals

I think the teams are pretty evenly matched, so I'll take the points.

Pick: Broncos

Oakland Raiders (+1.5) at Tennessee Titans

I actually picked the Titans last week, but I think the Raiders are a talented team that hasn't yet found their groove. I think the Titans get the Raiders best effort here and the Raiders pull out the minor upset.

Pick: Raiders
Arizona Cardinals (-4) at Buffalo Bills

Switching the offensive coordinator after getting lit up by the Jets is an odd move. The Cardinals offense is as good if not better than the Jets and the Bills best offensive weapon (Sammy Watkins) is not at 100 percent.

Pick: Cardinals

Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars

I'm not sure what the Jaguars implosion against the  Chargers means in terms of the Packers. The Jaguars looked pretty good week 1 vs the Packers, who consequently looked extremely ordinary in Week 2 vs the Vikings. Are the Jaguars finally ascending, will their young talent every pay off? I think they have enough offense to give the Ravens some issues.

Pick: Jaguars

Cleveland Browns (+9.5) at Miami Dolphins

What have the Dolphins done to get the respect of being 9.5 points better than anyone?

Pick: Browns

Washington Redskins (+4.5) at New York Giants

Washington is falling apart at the seams, the Giants are riding high. Divisional game. Lots of yapping. Giants 4.5-point favorites. This screams trap game for the Giants and the Giants are on upset alert. The Giants of the last four or five years likely lose this game or struggle. Have the Giants truly turned the corner? I'm going to be pessimistic until they prove it.

Pick: Redskins cover

Detroit Lions (+7.5) at Green Bay Packers

Packers haven't been overly impressive so far this year and I feel 7.5 points is too many to give.

Pick: Lions

Minnesota Vikings (+7) at Carolina Panthers

The Vikings are hurting now, but Diggs is an emerging player and they have enough defense to keep any game close.

Pick: Vikings

San Francisco 49ers (+9.5) at Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks offense hasn't been that impressive so I'll take the points with the 49ers (who are also not that impressive).

Pick: 49ers

Los Angeles Rams (+5.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Rams defense keeps this game close.

Pick: Rams cover

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

To me this week is a lot of "who are we really?" in terms around the league. What are teams actually made of. we'll find out this week with the Eagles.

Pick: Steelers

New York Jets (+3) at Kansas City Chiefs

I actually think the Jets are the more talented team here.

Pick: Jets

San Diego Chargers (+3) at Indianapolis Colts

I don't trust the Colts defense to stop the Chargers even though the Chargers offense is undermanned.

Pick: Chargers cover

Chicago Bears (+7) at Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott and Zeke Elliot could some day be big time players, but I think they are still growing here and the Cowboys offense will hover around average. Their defense is at best average. The Bears are bad, but I still don't think the Cowboys defense will create the same kind of problems the Eagles were able to last week.

Pick: Bears

Atlanta Falcons (+3) at New Orleans Saints

Pick: Saints

Week 1: 8-7-1

Week 2: 9-7