clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

2016 NFL Odds: Why Giants will finish with less than 8 wins

Bovada has the Giants' over/under at eight wins for the 2016 season. Here's why you should take the under.

Eli Manning
Eli Manning
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

If everything goes according to plan, the New York Giants are slated to win eight games this upcoming season. After a more than $200 million spending spree in free agency, Las Vegas-based sportsbook Bovada pins Big Blue at an over/under for eight victories in 2016. That also puts the Giants at second in the NFC East, behind the Dallas Cowboys (over/under 9.5 wins) and ahead of the Washington Redskins (over/under 7.5 wins) and Philadelphia Eagles (over/under 7 wins). Here are the Giants' total win odds for the 2016 regular season, per Bovada:

New York Giants - 2016 Regular Season Win Total
Over                                         8  (-160, 5/8)

Under                                       8 (+130, 13/10)

We've covered game-by-game predictions already, and offseason reviews for the Giants have been on both sides of the aisle. Here's why I think the Giants' season can veer the wrong way off the track and can lead to a season of less than eight victories.

They have a tough start to the schedule

The Giants have started 0-2 in each of the past three seasons, and while they could start 0-2 again, they could conceivably go 0-5 in a worst-case scenario. New York starts the season on the road against the arch rival Cowboys, who will have a healthy roster and top rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott. After that, the Giants take on the New Orleans Saints and the defending NFC East champion Redskins before going on the road to take on the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers. Just a few years ago, the Giants fell in an 0-6 hole that nobody thought was possible. I'm not saying it's likely, but you can't count your chickens before they hatch.

Who knows if they can stay healthy?

By now, I'm sure most Giants fans know that Big Blue has been one of the most injured teams in the NFL. Last season, the Giants had 23 players put on injured reserve, the second-most in the NFL behind the Baltimore Ravens. The coaching staff, in some aspects, has changed, but will that get rid of the injury bug the Giants have suffered from during each of the last three seasons? It's too soon to tell but recent history has not been on New York's side.

The team still lacks depth in most areas

The biggest concern for the Giants moving forward has to be filling out the roster. New York made a lot of spectacular, flashy moves in the spring, signing defensive end Olivier Vernon, defensive tackle Damon Harrison and cornerback Janoris Jenkins. Since, the Giants have filled out the roster with rookies and veterans with question marks. The team has virtually no depth on the offensive line behind its starters, which has question marks itself on the right side of the line and at free safety. The team added several rookies in the 2016 NFL Draft that are expected to contribute this year, but did not have very many picks to begin with.

Safety is still a significant issue

Speaking of the safeties, that's still a position that Ben McAdoo and Jerry Reese have to sort out before the start of training camp. The team's most experienced safety is Landon Collins, who's entering just his second year in the NFL. Darian Thompson, who was selected in the third round of the NFL Draft this year, could be the favorite entering training camp to win the free safety job. Thompson is the Mountain West Conference all-time leader in interceptions, so his ball-hawking capabilities are clear. But, how quickly can he make the transition to the NFL? Depth behind he and Collins is also a concern, as Nat Berhe, Bennett Jackson and Mykkele Thompson are all coming off the injured reserve list from a season ago. The Giants, who finished last in the NFL in defense and gave up nearly 300 passing yards per game during the regular season, will need the safeties to be effective for that number to go down this year.

Questions in clutch time

Lastly, the Giants' issues during the end of games -- and whether or not they finish strong -- can be the difference. How big of a difference? If each of the Giants' games last season ended with 75 seconds remaining, the team would have finished the season 10-5-1. Instead, they finished 6-10. Some of it can be attributed to defensive blunders, but the offense made costly mistakes in the red zone as well. On both sides of the ball, New York has to be more efficient, be in position and make the plays they need to make to close games out because, as last season proves, it could be the difference between a winning and losing season.