A winning week is a rare thing for me this year, but it happened as I crushed the week 8-7. You have to start somewhere.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) at Tennessee Titans
I don't now what happened with the Jaguars this year. I guess what happened is just that they are who they have always been, while we were just expecting them to take a step forward. This is a huge game for them if they lose this game their coach should be fired. They have enough talent to be winning football games they are just not. The Titans have a good pass defense and should be able to run well on the Jaguars. They should win this game. No if the Jaguars love Bradley and come out fighting for his job it could be a big game for them, but I just think the Titans are better coached and win this game on a short week.
Bengals (-3) vs Washington (in London)
I never know what to think of these games, but I think the Redskins are a tough team. And tough tends to travel. The Redskins aren't great by any means, but neither are the Bengals. I'm hoping for a Bengals victory, but Washington feels like the right side here.
Pick: Washington wins outright
Green Bay (+3) at Atlanta Falcons
Last week the Green Bay Packers had to throw the ball 56 times to beat a bad Chicago Bears football team. The Falcons are not a bad football team and the Falcons also have the emerging Vic Beasley who in his second year is becoming an absolute terror of the edge for the Falcons. If the Packers drop back 60 times against the Falcons they will be in major trouble. I like the Falcons big here. The Packers offense hasn't played well, they are a little beat up in the secondary and no one can stop Matt Ryan to Julio Jones right now.
Pick: Falcons win easily
Detroit Lions (+2.5) at Houston Texans
I think the Lions are actually a slightly better team and they definitely have much more competent quarterback play. In fact Matthew Stafford has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league over the last season and a half. It's also a good bet that they will get back both Eric Ebron and Theo Roddick this week which will only help their offense.
Pick: Lions with the upset
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at New Orleans
Drew Brees is on pace to set a new single season passing record (and in fact he has 6 of the top 15 all time season in yardage, but this is no ordinary defense he is facing as the Seahawks Legion of Boom defense will go do in the football annals as one of the greatest defenses of all time (over a decade in this point happy league they still manage to limit teams consistently every year). It's too much for the Saints.
New England Patriots (-6) at Buffalo Bills
This game is tough to peg because I'm not sure which Bills team we'll see. The squad that showed last week and got run off the football field by the Miami Dolphins is not what the Bills have been over the past year and a half. But then again they are down their best offensive weapons as Lesean McCoy is likely to miss the game and they are reaching deep into their WR reserves from a corps that was not particularly strong to begin with. I don't think they have a chance to win this game, but they can harass the quarterback and it is in Buffalo so I think they can keep it close.
Pick: Bills cover
New York Jets (-3) at Cleveland Browns
Fitzpatrick was absolutely awful for the beginning of the season and was replaced by Geno Smith and then Smith proceeded to get hurt for the season and Fitzpatrick got his job back. Can he recapture the Fitz-magic that had the team competent last season? I'm not sure. My only hesitation in this game is that I heard a stat (don't have it in front of me) that basically said if there is a team that is 1-15, 2-14 the team that they usually beat in history has been the Jets. Anyway, I like the Browns as double digit dogs (when Kessler stays in the game) because they are young and tough, but 3 point isn't a lot and the Jets are much, much more talented.
Oakland Raiders (pick em) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Raiders can get after the quarterback and put up points in a hurry. I think they are better on both side of the ball then the Buccaneers, my only concern though is all the travel they have done lately and 1 o'clock starts for west coast teams have historically caused some issues. Still I think the Raiders are the superior team so in a pick 'em game take the better team.
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts
The Chiefs are starting to get it together with a terrific running attack (which hasn't even gotten full use of Charles yet) and a very good defense. The Colts are Andrew Luck and not much else.
San Diego Chargers (+4.5) at Denver Broncos
The Rivers led chargers always seem to be in games, they just find the worst ways to lose them. I think 4.5 is too many points because it wouldn't surprise me if the Chargers found a way to win this game outright.
Arizona Cardinals (+3) at Carolina Panthers
The Cardinals are the better team, they are just struggling offensively right now, and they are getting points.
Philadelphia Eagles (+4.5) at Dallas Cowboys
For me this is about match-ups. I just have this feeling that the Eagles defense is going to give Dallas it's first major test of the year and it's going to be a bit overwhelming for them. This is a legitimately good Eagles defense that I'm not looking forward to watching them potentially dominate the Giants in two weeks.
Pick: Eagles win outright.
Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) at Chicago Bears
The Vikings lose their two offensive tackles and their offense has been in a tail-spin since with only the Giants helping them stay on track. They have no major receiving threat, they have no major rushing threat, but they do have a tremendous defense. And that defense will be too much for a Bears offense that is down to it's third string quarterback.