10-6 last week means that even if I go 0-16 this week I Finish the year 18 games over .500 against the spread which is not bad.
New York Jets (-3) at Buffalo Bills
Every time I expect the Bills to play well they come up short. The Bills could be motivated to end the Jets playoff hopes, it's their Superbowl if you will, and also they have the kind of pass rushers who can force Fitzpatrick into too many mistakes, but the Jets are a better team and need the game more.
Pick: Jets by more than 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10.5) at Carolina Panthers
Watching Cam Newton get beat up against the Giants a couple of weeks ago makes me think any danger and he's pulled now that the perfect season is not in play. A lot of players have the potential to be pulled. so I can't give 10.5 points.
New England Patriots (-10) at Miami Dolphins
Same thing here. I don't like giving up a lot of points in divisional games and I'm not sure the Patriots have enough to play for here if New England wins they get home field advantage and I think they will, but I'll take the points.
Baltimore Ravens (+7.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Again, who knows how much the starters will play here especially if it looks like the Patriots will win. Also, who can be confident that A.J. McCarron is 7.5 points better than a divisional opponent?
New Orleans Saints (+4) at Atlanta Falcons
I like the Falcons here who finally put together a solid showing last week and I think they'll play well here too.
Pick: Falcons by more than 4
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) at Houston Texans
The Texans defense is finally the defense people expected it to be before the season started. I think the Jaguars offense is skilled but also benefits from playing catch-up often.
Oakland Raiders (+6.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
I do not expect the Chiefs to be playing all their starters all game
Tennessee Titans (+6) at Colts
I can't trust the Colts to beat anyone by a touchdown
Pick: Titans lose by less than 6
Washington Redskins (+3) at Dallas Cowboys
That's a weird line.
Detroit Lions (+1) at Chicago Bears
I think the Lions are playing better right now.
Philadephia Eagles (+3) at New York Giants
Hopefully, the Giants can give Tom Coughlin a nice send off (assuming he is fired). I know OBJ will come to play.
Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Green Bay Packers
I think the Vikings are the better overall team. I know they got beat badly last time, but I feel different about this one.
San Diego Chargers (+9) at Denver Broncos
I'll take the points with Rivers.
St. Louis Rams (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
The Rams play the division well -- the 49ers are terrible.
Pick: Rams by more than 3.5
Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) at Arizona Cardinals
No one has anything to play for in this game so I'll take the points