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NFL picks against the spread, Week 11

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Jesse's been money this season. Let's see what his crystal ball says this week.

Brock Osweiler is now the quarterback in Denver
Brock Osweiler is now the quarterback in Denver
Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

A good week last week spoiled only by my arch nemesis the Thursday night game and our very own Giants, who played much better than I anticipated.

Tennessee Titans (+3) at Jacksonville Jaguars

I'm terrible at Thursday night games so don't take my advice. I think the teams are evenly matched both have promising young quarterbacks. Blake Bortles seems to compile a lot of his numbers in garbage time and his numbers are clearly better in situations when the team is trailing, but hey are always trailing. Anyway, the Jaguars are pretty tough against the run even though they are always trailing (3.3 yards per rush and only 97.4 yards per game sixth in the league) and I think they have just  a few more good players then the Titans.

Pick: Jaguars

Washington Redskins (+7) at Carolina Panthers

The Redskins are not a good team, but they are a tough team, I just don't think they match up well with the Panthers. The Redskins give up 5 yards per rush and the Panthers are a very good rushing team. I also think the Panthers creating pressure up the middle will create problems for the turnover prone Kirk Cousins and I could see a defensive touchdown in this game. I have generally chosen the Redskins as big underdogs because I think they are gritty, and the pressure of being undefeated well at some point get to the Panthers, but I think this matchup is bad for the Redskins (and of course since the Giants need the Redskins to lose a few games here they'll probably win, but bet the matchups and live with the results).

Pick: Panthers

Oakland Raiders (-2) at Detroit Lions

The Lions have the worst coach in football in my opinion. The fact that they beat Green Bay was probably just due to a statistical anomaly, I think the last time the Lions had won in Lambeau was literally when Brett Farve was still on the Falcons. Anyway, the Raiders are the better team here and I don't think this game will be that close.

Pick: Raiders

Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins (pick 'em)

The Cowboys are a mess, but they are getting back Tony Romo. I think they are the more talented team.

Pick: Cowboys

Indianapolis Colts (+6) at Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are reeling, they lost to Tampa Bay, they lost to San Francisco 49ers, they beat the Titans by only 3 points. None of these teams are as good as the Colts. Andrew Luck is out and Matt Hasselbeck is not as good as he is, but has played, in his limited snaps, better in situations than Luck has. The only reason I'm hesitant to pick the Colts here is because the Falcons are coming off a bye. Teams can really respond well sometimes after the bye, and there is no evidence to how they will respond with their new head coach

Pick: Colts

St. Louis Rams (+2) at Baltimore Ravens

Last week in my preview I finally just said, the Ravens are a bad football team, why do they convincing me to pick them? And so I correctly picked the Jaguars. The Rams are the better team and they are getting points

Pick: Rams

New York Jets (-2.5) at Houston Texans

The Texans finally showed some life last week, but they have some quarterback problems and are going to struggle to score points against a quality defense like the Jets.

Pick: Jets

Green Bay Packers (+1) at Minnesota Vikings

I'll always take the points with Aaron Rodgers, even if he's not at his best.

Pick: Packers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5) at Philadelphia Eagles

I think the Eagles pressures could create a lot of problems for Jameis Winston and he could make some mistakes. My hope here, though, is that the Eagles will flounder with Sanchize at the helm and Mike Evans will catch the football.

Pick: Eagles

Denver Broncos (+1) at Chicago Bears

Jay Cutler is turnover prone and the Broncos create tons of pressure I have been on the Bears for awhile as an underrated team, but Brock Owseiler can't play worse than Peyton Manning has and this is a bad spot for the Bears as I think the Broncos will rally around their quarterback here.

Pick: Broncos

Cincinnati Bengals (+5) at Arizona Cardinals

I think the teams are pretty evenly matched even though the Bengals do flounder in big games from time to time. I think they'll bounce back this week. Five points is too much for a team I believe can win this game outright.

Pick: Bengals

San Francisco 49ers (+12) at Seattle Seahawks

The 49ers are terrible and the Seahawks are just playing around until they find themselves on offense. The defense will give the 49ers problem, but I just don't trust the Seahakws to beat anyone by 12 points. Even the terrible 49ers.

Pick: 49ers

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at San Diego Chargers

The Chiefs are much better than they have played for most of the season this year and last week things came together. Andy Reid is a good coach and the Chargers just have too many injuries. Again, though, this is another game that makes me iffy because a team is coming off a bye.

Pick: Chiefs

Buffalo Bills (+7) at New England Patriots

The losses of Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman could have a drastic effect on the Patriots offense the rest of the season. I also like that the Bills are coming off a bye, they are finally healthy, and they have one of the few defensive lines in the league who can create pressure without blitzing. They never beat the Patriots, but from a matchup standpoint it wouldn't completely shock me if the Bills pulled out an upset.

Pick: Bills

Record Against the Spread

Week 1: 9-6-1
Week 2: 7-7
Week 3: 9-7
Week 4: 11-4
Week 5 : 7-7
Week 6: 9-4-1
Week 7: 8-6
Week 8: 6-6-2
Week 9: 7-5
Week 10: 9-5

Overall: 82-57-4