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NFL Picks, Week 14: This week's winners, losers against the point spread

Jesse's thoughts on where to spend your money this week.

Can the Giants beat the titans?
Can the Giants beat the titans?
Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Chicago Bears Over/U 51.5

There is no short-week home field advantage here because both teams played last Thursday. On top of that the Bears are just a bad football team. I expect a bounce back effort from the Cowboys this week after a disappointing week last week.

Pick: Cowboys cover the spread (but let's hope I'm wrong)

Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Miami Dolphins O/Under 45

This should be a good game. Two physical teams who are playing well. The Dolphins have been competitive in nearly every game they have played, especially over the last two months (even though they looked poor vs the Jets). Both teams are 7-5 and this game could have huge playoff implications. I like the Dolphins to win by more than 3.

Pick: Dolphins cover the spread

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals Over/U 47

I think the Bengals are the better team, the question is do I trust Andy Dalton in a big spot against the Steelers? Normally I'd say no, but the Bengals are a good home team (12-1-1) over the last two years and I haven't been that impressed with the Steelers this year.

Pick: Bengals cover the spread, but Andy Dalton makes me hesitate on that.

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns Over/U 50

The Browns are about to spiral out of control I think. Colts win this one going away. The Browns were trying to stick with Hoyer, but he isn't playing well lately and they can't score enough to keep up with the Colts.

Pick: Colts win big

Houston Texans (-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars O/UnderU 42

The Jaguars played well in the second half last week (helped by the Giants ineptitude), but the Texans are a much better team. I don't expect the Jaguars to score 14 points on defense again this week.

Pick: Texans cover the spread

New York Giants (pick 'em) at Tennessee Titans O/U 45.5

A Pick 'em game against a 2-10 team. My how the Giants have fallen. The Giants haven't won in MONTHS! That's ridiculous to say. The Giants have better individual players than the Titans too and I think that matters when two teams are both poor. The Giants would be better served long run by losing this game, but I expect them to win and Eli crosses off another team off his list (he's beaten almost every team in the league, except the Colts, Titans, Giants, and I think the other is the Broncos).

Pick: Giants win outright

Carolina Panthers (+9.5) at New Orleans Saints O/Under 49.5

I'm done with the Panthers.

Pick: Saints win big

Tampa Bay (+9.5) at Detroit Lions O/Under 41.5

Tampa Bay is better on the road than they are home. Detroit has been a dangerous offense in years past, but have not performed up to snuff this year. There was a flicker of what they could be last Thursday, but I still don't think they'll blow a ton of people out.

Pick: The Buccaneers cover the spread, Lions win.

St. Louis (-2.5) at Washington Redskins O/U 44.5

The Rams are hard for me to figure out. They are a talented team with below average quarterback play. They can really look good at times though when their quarterbacks are actually on. They have some intriguing weapons on offense and loads of talent on the defense. This game is also interesting because it's the Rams (who acquired all those picks from the Redskins) against the Redskins who are not playing RG3. Funny how things turn out.

Pick: Rams win by more than 2.5

New York Jets (+6) at Minnesota Vikings O/Under  40.5

If I said the Jets beat the Vikings would you be floored? No, because the Vikings have a young rookie quarterback who could be prone to mistakes and the Rex Ryan can deliver complicated defensive schemes effectively. I expect bad quarterback play, and a close game. That doesn't scream 6-point favorites to me.

Pick: Jets, cover, Vikings win

Buffalo Bills (+10) at Denver Broncos O/Under 48.5

The Bills can't score with the Broncos. They can't really score with a lot of teams, but this Buffalo Bills defense is absolutely legitimate. They create a ton of pressure on the quarterback, they create turnovers, and they have above average linebacker play in the run game. I don't see anyway they can win, but this team can rush four (successfully) against Manning and play coverage in the back, which should cause enough problems to keep the game close.

Pick: Bills cover the spread, Broncos win

Kansas City Chiefs (+1) at Arizona Cardinals Over/U 40.5

I have this odd sports fandom where I generally enjoy rooting for the perennial underdog except for my favorite teams (Giants/Yankees) and I was hoping to see the Cardinals play the first ever home Superbowl game. But that's not happening with Drew Staton as the quarterback. He's not very good and it's even possible without Palmer the Cardinals could end up missing the playoffs. I expect them to lose this game.

Pick: Chiefs

San Francisco 49ers (-9) at Oakland Raiders O/Under 41

My pick for this game has much less to do with what I think about the Raiders then with how pedestrian I think the 49ers are. The Raiders also just got absolutely embarassed by the Rams and I think a team that gets blanked 52-0 will come out the next week with something to prove. They can't beat the 49ers, but I think they can make them sweat.

Pick: Raiders cover the spread, but lose

Seattle (+1.5) at Philadelphia Eagles Over/U 48.6

Defending Super Bowl champs vs. Mark Sanchez? I keep saying this every week. I still don't trust Sanchez. Perhaps he's turned a corner with Chip Kelly and this offensive system, but I've still seen plenty enough to give me pause. The Seahawks are finding their groove over the last few weeks, especially on the defensive side of the ball which is beginning to look reminiscent of the Superbowl defense.

Pick: Seahawks win out right

New England Patriots (-3.5) at San Diego Chargers O/U

I know they lost last week to the Packers and I expect the Chargers to get a classic Tom Brady bounce back game.

Pick: Patriots by more than 3.5

Atlanta Falcons (+12) at Green Bay Packers O/U 56

Green Bay is stomping people and the Falcons stink on the road, but something tells me on Monday Night Football the Falcons give enough on offense to keep this from being a runaway.

Pick: Falcons lose by less than 12