Another winning week especially straight up (12-3) but I did go 1-3 in the games I liked most in the week meaning the Titans are even worse than I thought. Who can't cover 11 points vs Mark Sanchez, when Sanchez plays like Sanchez (1 TD and 2 INT)? This week has the best Thanksgiving games in awhile, though one of them involves rooting for a team you can't stand in the Eagles or Cowboys. If one HAS to make the playoffs, which it seems is the case now, which won are you rooting for? Personally, I'd have to pick the Cowboys. Still hoping Tony Romo will blow it in a big game and I don't want to give the Eagles a chance to win their first Superbowl.
Chicago Bears (+7) at Detroit Lions Over/U 47
Even when the Lions are bad they generally bring something for the Thanksgiving day game. This year when they desperately need a win I expect a big performance. Reggie Bush will also be back for the game.
Pick: Lions cover the spread
Philadelphia Eagles (+3) at Dallas Cowboys Over/U 54.5
Between this game, the Seahawks/49ers and the Patriots/Packers game is the best game of the weekend. Both teams are pretty good, though both have weaknesses. The Cowboys are not as good on defense as they have played. Yes, they are markedly improved in large part because they have linebackers who can fly to the football, which has improved their run defense a lot. But their secondary can be exposed and to compound matters they don't particularly rush the passer all that well. The Eagles have by far the best special teams play in the league which has won them a fair number of games. I also think their defense is average. I think Tony Romo and the Cowboys offensive line has a much better chance to take advantage of the weakness than Mark Sanchez. I still don't believe in Sanchez and I think he is the Eagles eventual downfall.
Pick: Cowboys, and I think it could be by double digits
Seattle Seahawks (+1) at San Francisco 49ers O/Under 40
Another good game here. Both teams have similar strenghts. Good defenses, good running backs, and mobile quarterbacks. I think the 49ers have a better pass rush with the emergence of Aaron Lynch and the return of Aldon Smith, plus they are home. I'll take the 49ers to cover the spread, but root for a couple of Lynch touchdowns (come on' fantasy)
Pick: 49ers cover the spread
Washington Redskins (+9) at Indianapolis Colts O/Under 51
The Redskins have a top 10 offense AND defense in yardage (actually I looked it up and they are now 11th in yards after the 49ers game). They are terrible at quarterback though with Colt McCoy returning. But the point is this is not a terrible team. They have locker room issues and Red-zone issues (on both offense and defense because they give up a lot of points and don't score enough despite being better than average in both categories). The Colts offense is terrific and they should win this game especially at home, but my point was that the Redskins are actually a solid team and I'm not giving up basically 10 points against a solid team (and this line will likely even move up another 1 or 2 points because I got the line about the same time the announcement that RGIII wouldn't play came out)
Pick: Colts win, Redskins cover
Tennessee Titans (+6.5) at Houston Texans O/Under 42.5
Mettenberger is playing OK and Mallett as well so it would have been interesting to see the battle of two big armed slow QBs! I kid, I kid. The Texans will roll out with Fitzpatrick who isn't a world beater, but is good enough to beat up on bad teams, the Titans are a bad team.
Pick: Texans by a touchdown
Cleveland Browns (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills O/Under 41
This is a game of what could of beens. I think both teams will miss the playoffs, but both teams are so close. The Browns lost a game to the Jaguars that will come back to haunt them because their division is too good. The Bills decided to roll out E.J. Manuel early in the year when maybe they could have had won another game. And they fumbled away (literally) their chance to win against the Chiefs. I think the Bills defenese is the best defense in the league. The Browns have a solid defense, but Brian Hoyer will be harassed by the terrific Bills defensive line which will force him into some bad plays. The question is can the Bills score enough points to make things interesting, before the Jets game they hadn't scored a touchdown in awhile.
Pick: Bills squeak out the victory
San Diego Chargers (+5.5) at Baltimore Ravens O/U 46
7-4 Chargers vs the 7-4 Baltimore Ravens but trending in different ways. The Chargers looked like a dominant team at the beginning of the year but since week 5 they have barely beat Oakland, lost to the Chiefs, lost to Denver, got blown out by Miami, barely beat the Raiders, barely beat the Rams. The Ravens are getting better as the season goes along. They need to keep winning to keep pace in their division.
Pick: Ravens win by more than 5.5
New York Giants (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars Over/U 44
Would it potentially be better for the Giants to lose out every game the rest of the season to secure a higher draft pick? Sure. Could I logically hope for that outcome? Sure. When the game starts is there any chance I actually root for a Giants loss? Hell to the No.
The Giants have had a habit of beating up poor teams over the past two years (while losing consistently to the good ones) because they still have a terrific (yet mistake prone) quarterback who can have a 350 yards 4 TD performance at a moments notice (hopefully 200 of those yards to OBJ!). This is a guy who won't miss games with separated shoulders, plantar fascitis, or any other nagging injuries. He loves the game and he wants to win. The Jaguars might be a team on the uptick, but they are a bad team now and the Giants haven't won in a long time, it's not like they are over-looking anyone.
Pick: Giants win big
Cincinnati Bengals (+4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers O/Under 44
It would be a mistake for any AFC North team to take anyone lightly the rest of the year because there is no margin for error. The Buccaneers are also better on the road than they are at home. I like the Bengals to win by more than 4 and hope that the Bengals secondary can keep Mike Evans in check because OBJ is coming for that Rookie of the Year Award.
Pick Bengals by more than 4
Oakland Raiders (+7) at St. Louis Rams
The Raiders aren't any good, but the Rams shouldn't be touchdown favorites. The Raides have played a number of close games this year despite their record. I thought last week they would play inspired because they desperately needed a win, will they have the same kind of intensity now? Will they have solid back to back performances. I'm not sure, but like I said they play in more close games than you'd expect and the Rams are not great.
Pick: Rams win, Raiders cover
New Orleans Saints (+3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Saints stink. I don't want to hear anymore about Brees being in the same class as Manning/Brady/Rogers. Those guys win 10-12 games every year no matter the circumstances. That's not Brees. They can't play on the road either. Steelers win by more than 3.5, if you're playing Antonio Brown in fantasy I pray for you.
Carolina Panthers (+3) at Minnesota Vikings O/U 43
Before the season if you said that the Vikings, without Adrian Peterson, would be better than the Panthers people would have looked at your cross-eyed. What happened was that the Panthers play dropped down to the Vikings level, but despite that the Panthers are still in the playoff race. I think they have more to play for and this time of year is approaching mail-it-in time for some teams.
Pick: Panthers win outright
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons 44.5
The Cardinals need this game if they want to get one step closer to guaranteeing a playoff appearance. You have to feel for them, they had a realistic chance of playing a home game in the Superbowl before Palmer got hurt, now with a backup quarterback it seems unlikely. Still they should have enough on defense to keep the game close enough for them to win.
Pick: Cardinals cover the 2.5
New England Patriots (+3) at Green Bay Packers Over/U 58.5
That's a big over/under for a game that everything points to a shoot-out. I think the Patriots are playing the best football in the league right now, but the Packers are very tough at home. If you do the 3 point to the home team rule this game is a "pick-em". I'm going to take the points and the Patriots though I have no confidence in the pick.
Pick: Patriots win outright
Denver Broncos (-1.5) at Kansas City Chiefs O/Under 50
I keep waiting for the Broncos to put it all together, but it turns out they might have peaked too early in the season. Still with a good defense and a good offense they can win any game any week. I don't think the Chiefs have enough offensively here.
Pick: Broncos by more than 1.5
I like the Cowboys -3, the Steelers, the Giants, and I feel pretty good about the 49ers game, too.
Week 1 -- ATS: 8-7-1 Straight up: 12-4
Week 2 -- ATS: 7-8 Straight Up: 8-7
Week 3 -- ATS: 13-3 Straight up:14-2
Week 4 -- ATS: 6-7 Straight up: 7-6
Week 5 -- ATS: 9-5 Straight up: 10-4
Week 6 -- ATS: 10-4 Straight up: 8-5-1
Week 7 -- ATS: 8-6 Straight up: 8-6
Week 8: ATS: 9-6 Straight up: 10-5
Week 9: ATS: 8-5 Straight up: 8-5
Week 10: ATS; 6-7 Straight up: 8-5 Over/Under 6-7
Week 11: ATS: 7-6-1 Straight up: 8-6 Over/Under 7-7 Locks-2-1-1
Week 12: ATS: 8-7 Straight up: 12-3 Over/Under 9-6 Locks: 1-3
Season -- ATS: 92-63-2 Straight up -- 103-53-1