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NFL Picks Week 16: Game-by-game predictions against the spread

Jesse's Week 16 picks against the point spread.

Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL season goes by too fast, it's Week 16 already. For some fans it means jockeying for playoff positioning, for others it's all about the Fantasy Football championship, and for many New York Giants fans it's about watching the helpless Giants battle for two more wins.

I started the season terribly picking games, but besides two weeks ago have been finishing very strong. I think since Week 4 I only had the one losing week two weeks ago. Last week was no exception as I went 9-5-1 (Packers-Cowboys) did not have a spread post at the time I did my picks. Last see what happens in these final two weeks, which are often difficult to predict because some teams just completely check out.

Miami Dolphins (-3) at Buffalo Bills

It can be hard to get up for a game in Buffalo for some teams at this point in the season, but the Dolphins are the Bills' rivals and Miami really needs this win to try and make the playoffs. The Bills will also be without both Stevie Johnson and E.J. Manuel and last I read the Bills weren't close to selling out, so the atmosphere won't be too difficult, either. I think the Dolphins win this game comfortably.

Pick: Dolphins

New Orleans at Carolina Panthers (-3)

The Saints aren't the same team on the road as they are on home, especially in outdoor conditions. The Panthers didn't fare well in New Orleans, but I think it's different this time and they win this game. However, this is me picking against Drew Brees, which isn't generally recommended.

Pick:  Panthers

Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5)

I think the Bengals have struggled a bit since they lost Geno Atkins. The Vikings aren't great, but they cover the points.

Pick: Vikings

Denver Broncos (-11) at Houston Texans

It's impossible to pick what the Texans are going to bring to the table. Against the Seahawks they only lost by three points, ditto for the Patriots, and only one to the Chiefs. Against the the Rams they lost by 25 (in Houston). Their defense is still good  (fourth in yards), but they give up a lot of points because the offense puts them in bad positions. I think the Broncos win fairly comfortably, but 11 is a bit much for me.

Pick: Houston

Tennessee Titans (-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Since no one watches the Jaguars people haven't realized that they are actually 3-2 in their last five games, while the Titans are 1-4 in their last five. The Titans are the "almost" team, they almost upset a lot of teams, but they are still 5-9 on the season. I'll take the points.

Pick: Jaguars

Indianapolis at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)

All of a sudden the Chiefs offense has figured out how to score points, 28 is their lowest total over their last four games and they are averaging just under 42 points per game over that span. The Colts are only 19 net points this year, while the Chiefs are 144. I think the spread sounds high, but the Chiefs are a team that has won more than a few games by a lot of points.

Pick: Chiefs

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-1)

I'm going to say Josh Gordon has a chance at making a few big plays, while the Jets wide receivers probably don't. The Browns win this game outright.

Pick: Browns

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams (-4)

The Rams are one of the teams with the most interesting offseasons to follow I think. They are a talented team, but they have to decide with their top five pick whether or not Sam Bradford is the future answer at quarterback. If not they could end up essentially choosing the quarterback they pick this year and Alec Ogletree over RG3. As for the game this is not one I have a great feel on.

Pick: Rams

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Washington Redskins

I don't know why, but to me this feels like a game that the Redskins upset the Cowboys. The Cowboys defense is terrible and the Redskins offense might actually be better with a healthy Kirk Cousins running it then a beaten and battered RG3. Plus Tony Romo's luck and career trajectory seems like it's inevitable that the Cowboys miss the playoffs and his terrific seasons boils down to two poor throws in the Packers game.

Pick: Washington

New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-10.5)

It's an embarrassing day when the Giants are 10.5-point underdogs to the Detroit Lions! The Giants won't have Victor Cruz, which means they won't have any offense and will get swallowed up by Suh and Fairley and it could look a lot like last week (and most of the year).

Pick: Lions

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-11.5)

The Cardinals won't win, but they are a very solid team. They cover the spread.

Pick: Cardinals

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-11)

The Raiders always seem to bring their 'A' game against the Chargers, and I don't expect this will be too different.

Pick: Raiders

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-1)

If the game is a toss-up game, I never side against Tom Brady.

Pick: Patriots win out-right

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

The Eagles struggled at home early and last year, but have won their last three home games against the Lions, Redskins, and Cardinals. I think they win this game as well.

Pick: Eagles

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-14)

The Falcons are not a good team, but they have figured things out a bit over the last month and are keeping games close or winning them as opposed to the earlier part of the season when they were playing terribly. The 49ers are good at home, but 14 points is too many for me.

Pick: Atlanta

Season Record: 94-99-6