Had the New York Giants selected Derrick Morgan instead of Jason Pierre-Paul a year ago, Dan Kadar of SB Nation's Mocking the Draft could proclaim himself 'King of All Mock Drafters.'
Alas, the Giants ignored Dan's call for Morgan -- as well as my own -- and took JPP. Giants fans are glad they did, of course, even if it meant Kadar had to settle for having only the second-most accurate mock draft among all major draft analysts, according to numbers compiled by The Huddle Report.
Kadar's mock draft proved more accurate than those of ESPN's Mel Kiper, the Dallas Morning News' Rick Gosselin and every mock draft guru except Spencer & Engle of Draft Breakdown, who topped Kadar by a single point.
I think Dan is still stinging from being second-best. He was not so upset with the Giants, though, that he could not put that aside and spend some time with me Tuesday evening talking about the 2011 NFL Draft.
I have not done a 'chat style' Q&A with anyone in a while, but Dan and I were able to get together and do just that. Follow the jump for our conversation, and be sure to check out Mocking the Draft for all your draft needs -- when you aren't here at BBV, of course.
Ed: So,youwere--Ibelieve--thesecond-mostaccurateofallofthemockdraftersin2010.Tellmehowyougotinvolvedinthis,andgivemeanideahowyoustudyplayers?
Mocking the Draft: Living45minutesoutsideofCleveland,I'vealwaysbeenafootballfan.Somethingaboutthedraftinparticularjustreallygrabbedmyinterest.
Soinprobably1995Istartedcloselyfollowingthedraft–mostlyjustwatchingESPN'scoverage.
TheonlyjobIeverwantedtohavewasinjournalism,soI'malwayswriting.IfiguredImayaswellwriteaboutthedraft.
SoIstartedwithNFLDraftBlitzinabout2002,Ithink,writingabouttheBrownsingeneral.
ButsinceIhadaninterestinthedraft,Ireallystartedtoseehowpeopleevaluatedplayersandwroteaboutevaluatingthem.
EventuallyIstartedasitewithsomeone,NewEraScoutingcom,whicheventuallyledmetoMockingTheDraftafewyearsago.
Asforevaluatingplayers,I'mnodifferentthananyoneelseathome,otherthanthefactthatIwatchalotmorefootballthanmostpeople.I'malwayswatchingagame.Infact,IhaveArkansas/Georgiaonfromlastyear.
Soit'salwayswatchingatonofgamesandtakingcopiousamountsofnoteswhiledoingso.
Ed: Tell me this. Scouts and analysts all have different opinions of players. Which analysts make you really re-evaluate your work when you see that they disagree with your opinions on a player?
Mocking the Draft: MikeMayock,probably.He'sjustsomuchbetterthaneveryoneelsethatit'shardtodisregardhisopinion.Butwiththatinmind,Itrytostickbymyownopinionandgowithit.RickGosselinoftheDallasMorningNewsisanotherone.GregCosell,produceofNFLMatchupisanother.Thosethreemostly.
ThentherearepeopleintheNFLthatIknowwhoIsometimesreachouttoforsomeinformation.
Ed: OK.So,let'sgetdowntothebusinessoftalkingNewYorkGiants.Givemeyourfirst-rounddraftboardfortheGiants.Iamlookingformaybefiveguysyourealisticallythinkwillbeavailable,andyourorderofpreferenceifyoucan.
Mocking the Draft: 1.MikePouncey,2.AkeemAyers,3.KyleRudolph,4.DannyWatkins,5.CoreyLiuget
ThoughLiugetmaynotbethere.Theothersshouldbe.
Ed: IthinkyouknowhowmuchIlikeAyersfortheGiants.Manyanalystshavepushedhimdowntheirboards,sometothemiddleofthesecondround.AreyouinagreementwithmethathewouldbeasolidpickfortheGiants,evenat19?
Mocking the Draft: Ithinkhewould.Thetwobigreasonsbehindhimbeingpushedbackbytalkingheadsisthathelegitimatelydoesplaywithalackofeffortattimesandthathedidn'thavebigsacknumbers.
Onthefirstissue,ifanycoachcanlightafireunderaplayerlikeAyers,Iimagineit'sTomCouglin.
Onthesecondissue,AyerswaskindofmisusedatUCLA.Theyaskedhimtodropbackincoveragealot.Iknowheplayedwithhishanddownsome,butthat'snothisgame.
Ed: Ihavetalkedtoabunchofdraftanalystsinthelastfewmonths,andonethingIalwaysaskaboutistheGiants'draftphilosophy.'WhenyouthinkGiantsandNFLDraft,canyoudescribewhatyouthinkitistheytrytodo--orifthereisacertaintypeofplayertheylookfor?
Mocking the Draft: Youcanprobablyanswerthisbetterthanme,butit'salittlehardtopinpointtheirtendencies–especiallyaftertheytookJason Pierre-Paulinthefirstroundlastyear.
Ithinkthey'reoneofthoseteamsthatlikestodraftsizeandplaymakingability.(Ayershasbothofthosethings,bytheway)
Ed: Interesting.DidtheJPPpicksurpriseyouthatmuch?Ihadthempeggedasgoingdefensiveend,buttakingDerrick Morgan--whoIsawasthe'safer'pick?
Mocking the Draft: Right,IthoughtMorganforsuretoo.Hadhebeenthepick,I'dbefirstinthatmockcontest,whateverthat'sworth(notmuch).TheJPPpickonlysurprisedmebecausehe'saprojectplayer.Istillthinkhe'saprojectplayer.
Ed: LOL!So,JerryReesecostyouthetitle'KingofAllMockDrafters.'Well,wefeelbadaboutthat,butnotaboutpickingJPPoverMorgan.Theguylookslikeheisgoingtobeatremendousplayer.
Mocking the Draft: Yeah,maybe.Istillthinkheneedstogetstrongerandplayharderagainsttherun.ButIadmittoonlyseeingtwoorthreeGiantsgameslastyear.
Ed: So,beforeIaskyouanotherquestionthisistheonethingIwillsayaboutReese'sdraftphilosophy.Itseemsifthereisaguywithsize/speed,orfreakishathleticabilityJRwillbesniffingaroundhim.
Mocking the Draft: Icanseethat.
Ed: So,question.IftheGiantsdon'tgolinebackerinRound1IkeephearingtwopotentialnamesinRound2.Bruce Carteror Mason Foster.WhatdoyouthinkofeitherguyasafitfortheGiantsdefense?
Mocking the Draft: Ifyou'regoingbytheidealthatthey'lllookatathleticplayersfirst,Carterwouldbeabetterchoice.He'sbigger,stronger,faster.He'salsolessdisciplinedthanFoster.FosteractuallyremindsmeagooddealofMichael Boley.
Ed: Yuck!IfheremindsyouofBoleyIdon'twanttogothere.
Mocking the Draft: hahaha
Ed: Givemeahandfulof'third-day'typepicksyoucouldseebecomingimpactNFLplayers.InJerryReese'sbestdraft(2007)hegotabunchoflate-roundimpactguys.Hehasn'tbeenassuccessfulwiththatthepastcoupleofyears.
Mocking the Draft: IlikeDeloneCarter,RB,Syracusealot.VirgilGreen,TE,Nevadaisreallyathleticandlong.Intherightsystem,NorthCarolinacornerbackKendricBurneycanmakeagoodimpact.HamptonDTKenrickElliscouldmakeabigimpactifhekeepshisheadonstraight.
Ed: Lastquestion,thenIwillletyougetbacktoyourgamefilm.AtBigBlueViewwealwayssay'InReeseWeTrust.'WhatdoyouthinkoftheworkReesehasdonewiththeGiants,specificallyinthedraft,ofcourse?
Mocking the Draft: He'sbeenthere,what,sincethe2007draft?
Mocking the Draft: WhenIlookoverhispicks,therereallyaren'tanysuperstarplayers.Iknowthat'shardtodowhenyou'reconsistentlydraftinginthesecondhalfofrounds,butgivenhisstyleIwouldhavethoughthehitsomehomeruns.He'sdraftedalotofsolidplayers,likethewidereceivers,butnobig-timeplayers.
Andifyouwanttofollowthatup,pleasedo.
Ed: Iwouldagreewiththat,thoughIthinkyoumayeventuallyconsiderbothJPPandHakeemNickstobe'homeruns.'
Mocking the Draft: Iwillsay,thatAhmad Bradshawpickwasahomerun.
Ed: WhatIwouldfollowthatupwithisthis.WhenIlookatthelasttwoyearstheGiantshavenotgottenmuchbeyondtheirfirst-roundselection.Letmephraseaquestionthisway.Canitbeagooddraftifyouhitahomerunwithoneguy,butnooneelsereallybecomesafull -timeplayer?Or,doyouthinkyoureallyneedtocomeoutwith4-5guyswhoaresolidcontributorsforadrafttobeconsideredsuccessful?
Mocking the Draft: ThisiskindofthemantraIgoby.Whenyou'reateamthatgoestotheplayoffsorchallengesfortheplayoffs,liketheGiants,youneedtofindthatonegreatpieceinthedraft.Idon'tthinkyoucannecessarilywhiffoneveryotherpick,butthey'llhurtlessifyoureallyhitononeplayer.
Ed: Lastquestion,Ipromise.YouseePounceyas,potentially,thatpiecefortheGiantsthistime?
Mocking the Draft: Idobasedontheiruncertaintyattheinteriorlinespots.Onoffense,Ireallythinkthat'salltheyneed.
