As much as I would like to profusely apologize for picking such tough games last week I did pretty awful in picking.  I think that's punishment enough. I don't expect it to get much easier this week.  Of course the two nationally televised games suddenly aren't exactly worth televising.  Anybody have the cajones to pick Cleveland?  If I'm one of the leaders maybe it's worth it on the off chance they pull the upset (ooops, I'm giving away strategy!)

EDITOR'S NOTE 11:45: And we've got ourselves a logo.  Thanks again to wjackalope for giving us yet another money logo.

49ers vs. Philadelphia - Sunday 10/12 1:15pm

New England @ San Diego - Sunday 10/12 NBC Game 5:15pm

NY Giants @ Cleveland - Monday 10/13 5:30pm

Chicago @ Atlanta - Sunday 10/12 10:00am

Green Bay @ Seattle - Sunday 10/12 1:15pm

Dallas @ Arizona - Sunday 10/12 1:15pm

I think the 3 rotating games (the non SF, non-SNF and non-MNF matchups) are rather difficult.  The Falcons are rolling along, surprising just about everybody.  Seattle got blasted last week, but maybe they just needed some time to get the chemistry back with the healthy receivers?  And Arizona is coming off an upset of the Bills.  Can they pull it off for the second straight week?  I really hope not.

Also, anybody have an idea for a better name than "The Prediction Game."  Sounds pretty lame to me.  Or maybe it's a simple game that doesn't need to be complicated by some crazy-ass name.

We're back for four downs on the Eagles defense with Jason from Bleeding Green Nation.  The Eagles have a perenially solid defense that flys under the radar.  Given the 49ers offensive struggles we'll have to keep an eye on the Eagles defense.

NN: Mike Nolan was praising Jim Johnson in his Wednesday press conference.  Is there anything in particular we should know about the scheme Johnson brings?  Will we see a lot of exotic blitzes or is the defensive line sufficiently strong enough to create enough pressure?

BGN: Whether the front 4 is getting pressure or not Jim Johnson is likely to bring pressure from everywhere. It's basically his MO, especially when facing a young QB. I fully expect him to send blitzers from every which we he can in an attempt to confuse O'Sullivan.

NN: Given the hefty contract Asante Samuel received, expectations were certainly high.  How has he fared so far?  Isaac Bruce has been the best wide receiver threat so far, so will we see Samuel on Bruce all day or just whomever is on his side of the field?

BGN: Samuel has a couple of interceptions... so far so good with him. It's kinda hard to gauge the impact of a corner in just a few games. I doubt you'll see him on Issac Bruce all day, generally the Eagles don't play matchups with DBs and WRs. They tend to leave their corners covering one side of the field. So depending on where Bruce lines up he could see Samuel, Sheppard, or Brown.

NN: In your Q&A with Hogs Haven the issue of RB and TE coverage was brought up.  The Eagles seem to be struggling in that department.  Given that, how do you see the Eagles trying to stop Frank Gore in both the rushing and passing games?

BGN: I think our struggles against TEs and RBs in coverage is a by product of the blitz. When teams have had success with those guys, it's been on screens and quick dumps that are designed to counter act the Eagles blitz. So my only hope is that when they do blitz, they blitz smart and always be watching for the screen.

As for stopping Gore on the ground... until last week the Eagles hadn't let a team rush for more than around 70 yards. Their run d against some good backs(Steven jackson, Forte, Barber, Willie parker) was stifiling... but last week Clinton Portis racked up 140 yards on us... So many of us are certainly paying special attention to what they do against Gore this weekend. What is the real Eagles D? The one who was leading the NFL in rush defense over the first 4 weeks, or the one we saw last week? I think the important thing will be to seal off the edges. Even the Redskins, who ran all over us, weren't able to get much up the middle where the Eagles are very solid. When they've struggled it's been on the edges. If the 49er TEs and OTs are able to seal off the Eagles LBs on the edges Gore could have big day.

NN: In the recent past the Eagles defense always seems to be solid without getting a lot of media attention.  Aside from Brian Dawkins, Asante Samuel and maybe Sheldon Brown my knowledge of the Eagles defense is rather limited.  Is there one guy, aside from those three who could make a big impact this Sunday?

I'll say Stewart Bradley. He was a 3rd round pick out of Nebrask last year and won the starting middle linebacker job this year. So far he's really been exceeding our expectations. He's a big, fast run stopping guy in the middle and is really growing into one of those field generals you love to see as and anchor of your defense. If Frank Gore has a bad day on Sunday, it'll probably be in large part to Stewart Bradley.

Thanks again to Bleeding Green Nation.  The Eagles will definitely be a tough opponent.  While this is anything but a guaranteed win, the 49ers really need to avoid a long losing streak right now.

A few years back, the Eagles were trailing a game by 10 points with under 2 minutes to play.  The offense drove down the field to score a touchdown to cut the lead to 3.  The problem?  Time had either expired or there was less than 10 seconds to go with no timeouts.  Either way, it would have made more sense to get inside the 20 and kick a field goal since you needed 2 scores no matter what.  It seems like teams are always screwing this up, while you or I no the obvious answer via Madden.

Anyways, the Sports Guy posted a mailbag column today, and I realize what most of us think of him in terms of his football analysis.  I try to take him with a grain of salt and just try to be entertained.  However, he brought up a good point in one question that I wanted to flesh out here:

Q: On behalf of every Eagles fan, can you please be the one media guy who doesn't suck up to Andy Reid and point out all the reasons why he sucks and needs to either resign or start smoking? The man either needs more oxygen or more nicotine. Thanks in advance.
-- Randy, South Philly

SG: I'd be delighted! Reid is like Art Shell with a better PR staff. He makes terrible decisions at the worst possible times. His players make boneheaded mistakes (like the DeSean Jackson spike, or McNabb's pathetic eight-minute drill in Super Bowl XXXIX) and nobody ever blames him. He doesn't seem to understand the strengths and weaknesses of his players even remotely, as we witness every week when poor David Akers is forced to try 50-yard field goals with a 43-yard leg and their crappy offensive line is forced to keep ramming it down someone's throat on third-and-1. His clock management has always been horrendous -- always -- even back when the Eagles were going to the NFC title game every year.

Here's how much Reid has slipped as an NFL coach: During the Skins-Eagles game, Antwaan Randle-El threw an option pass TD that Reid challenged even though Randle-El was clearly behind the line. There was no debate. I watched the play live and didn't even know what Reid was challenging until Troy Aikman guessed it correctly. ("You're exactly right, Troy!") So we wasted two minutes watching replays of Randle-El throwing the pass from two yards behind the line of scrimmage, then Philly eventually losing a timeout on one of the five dumbest challenges of this decade. And I was sitting there thinking that we needed some sort of "Coaching Boners" stat to capture the following things …

1. Calling for inane challenges that have no chance of getting overturned.

2. Horrendous goal-line plays that cause fans to start booing even as the ball-carrier is getting tackled.

3. Egregious and indefensible brain-farts by a player.

4. Any needlessly counterproductive decision along the lines of "David Akers couldn't make a field goal of more than 50 yards right now unless we injected him with enough cocaine, Red Bull and HGH to kill a thoroughbred horse, but screw it, we're trying this 52-yarder anyway."

5. Screwing up the clock management in the "Two minutes to go and we need two scores" scenario.

6. Screwing up your three timeouts when there is less than four minutes left, you're trailing and you need to save as many seconds as possible.

When you think about it, we could easily keep track of those six categories. And if we did, we'd find that Andy Reid has doubled the total of any other coach for 2008 coaching boners through five weeks. I am convinced.

Personally I think Mike Nolan could challenge Andy Reid in some of the coaching miscues.  The point being, what do people think Andy Reid brings to the table?  Managers/head coaches in each sport have different responsibilities that make some jobs harder and some jobs easier.  WIth an offensive and defensive coordinator already in place, as well as a sort of eye in the sky up in the coordinators' booth to tell you about potential challenges, can an NFL head coach really have all that much impact on the game, aside from calling timeouts? 

I think the areas a head coach primarily affects on game day are 1) down 10 with 2 minutes left is one time and 2) sometimes use of timeouts.  Of course that list rises with the more responsibility a coach has (e.g. head coach acting as offensive coordinator).  However, if there is a separate OC and DC, can you blame the head coach for calling a certain play on 3rd and 1?  Is a head coach to blame for his rookie wide receiver spiking the ball a yard from the end zone?  I can see some of the blame Reid should have received for that joke of a 4th quarter drive in the Super Bowl, but even then McNabb probably could have hurried things up a little bit as a veteran QB.

So what do you think?  How overrated or underrated (or I guess plain rated) is the NFL head coach?

Two days of practice down and we've got some more injury updates:

49ers
Did not Participate in Practice
LB Roderick Green - Stomach Virus
OT Jonas Jennings - Shoulder
LB Manny Lawson - Hamstring

Limited Participation in Practice
SS Michael Lewis - Elbow

Eagles
Did not Participate in Practice
G Shawn Andrews - Back
DE Juqua Parker - Knee
S J.R. Reed - Hamstring/Ankle
RB Brian Westbrook - Rib/Ankle
WR Reggie Brown - Groin

Full Participation in Practice
DE Victor Abiamiri - Wrist
WR Kevin Curtis - Hernia
S Quintin Demps - Knee
DE Darren Howard - Abdomen
RB Dan Klecko - Hand
QB Donovan McNabb - Chest
TE L.J. Smith - Back

The only significant changes are in Michael Lewis and Reggie Brown.  Lewis managed some practice today, which is a good sign that he'll play on Sunday.  Given the struggles of the secondary I'd prefer to not lose any extra bodies.  Keith Lewis is a great special teams player, but he doesn't quite bring what Michael Lewis does.

As for Reggie Brown, he's been a solid receiving option the last two weeks.  On the one hand, a groin injury is always a tough one to bounce back from.  On the other hand, the Eagles offensive coordinator (our very own Marty Mornhinweg) said Brown was "better than he was," whatever that means.  If Mornhingweg is right I'd imagine Brown will show up as questionable tomorrow.  Otherwise, Brown will probably be down as doubtful.

We're trying something a little different this week to preview the 49ers-Eagles matchup.  Over at Bleeding Green Nation, Jason does something called Four Downs.  It is basically four questions about the opposing team's offense and four questions about the opposing team's defense.  Jason was kind enough to answer my questions.  We'll have four downs on offense today and four downs on defense tomorrow.

NN: In what I'm guessing is a weekly tradition, Brian Westbrook remains questionable.  Although I don't think it will make much difference to the porous 49ers run defense, what are the big differences between Westbrook and Buckhalter in terms of what skill sets they bring to the table?

BGN: Well it's night and day really. Buckhalter doesn't have the shifty, "stop start" ability Westbrook has when he gets in space. He's also not nearly the receiving threat Westbrook is, although he's become pretty decent in that area. More than anything it's just that playmaking knack. Westbrook, like your boy Gore, just has that knack for making a big play or turning something into nothing nothing into something. Buckhalter, while a solid back who has performed well when asked to, simply doesn't have that same knack.

NN: Desean Jackson is a fan-favorite out in the Bay Area thanks to electrifying performances at Cal.  He's exploded on the scene for the Eagles and aside from last week has been a solid, if not spectacular threat for you guys.  How has the view of Philly fans changed (or maybe it hasn't changed) since draft day?  What has his role been in the passing game and is it changing as Eagles receivers get healthy?

BGN: Desean has been a real revelation. Who would have thought that the 7th WR taken in the draft would be having the biggest impact (although Eddie Royal may have an argument there)? I think most of our expectations for him in his rookie year were that he'd make a big impact in the punt return game but that it would take a while for him to work in as a WR. Lucky for Desean, the Eagles lost both of their top WRs in camp and it gave Jackson the opportunity to play a ton in preseason, where he really shined. He's really carried that performance into the regular season and has been a huge part of our offense.

As for his role, he's started on the outside in the position formerly manned by Reggie Brown. Brown has moved over to Kevin Curtis' position in his absence. Desean has also been heavily used with end arounds, both as a decoy and a ballcarrier where he's done very well. He runs really great routes and has a real knack for finding holes in coverage. We all expected him to be mostly a deep threat where he uses his speed to get behind defenses, but his biggest imapct has really been when he's found holes underneath coverage and gotten yards after the catch.

NN: The 49ers have had issues getting a pass rush.  Can you tell us what the Eagles offensive line, and pass protection as a whole brings to the table?

BGN: They've done a reasonably good job protecting McNabb, but pass protection has been somewhat up and down. Basically they've played well against teams that struggle rushing the passer and have given up a few sacks to teams that can. They've really been a unit that's been tough to figure out. I'm not sure if this is a trend worth nothing but it could be interesting to 49er fans... 3-4 teams have sacked McNabb 7 times in two games while 4-3 teams have managed just 3 sacks in three games (and all three came in one game). That said, the 3-4 teams were Dallas and Pittsburgh who get after the QB well anyway. So whether they struggle with the 3-4 or Dallas and Pitt (who is tied for the league lead in sacks with us!) are just good remains to be seen.

NN: Every year it seems like somebody is trying to run Donovan McNabb out of Philly.  And yet, he bounces back with consistently solid performances.  Can this team win it all with the offense it currently has (and of course factoring in a healthy Kevin Curtis)?  People bitch about not getting to enough Super Bowls, but is that something McNabb should be blamed for, or is it something deeper?  I don't think I buy the idea of McNabb being a choker but it's more just general thoughts on my part.

BGN: I think McNabb has looked fine so far this year. He's healthy and been pretty confident... I certainly feel he's good enough to win with this group... but that said this group has got to include a healthy Brian Westbrook. He really makes this offense work. Without him for a long stretch, I'm not sure McNabb alone is enough to propel them to the playoffs.

Thanks again to Bleeding Green Nation for providing some knowledge.  I just emailed my responses to his offensive questions, so feel free to keep an eye out for it over at BGN.

Both Nolan and J.T. O'Sullivan spoke with the media earlier today and addressed some of the issues the offense will face on Sunday.  When I posted Nolan's post-game comments, one issue you guys mentioned was the lack of discussion about the offense.  So, this is certainly somewhat timely.  Normally I roll out Nolan first, but given the criticisms of JTO I thought it was better to go with him first.

J.T. O'SULLIVAN
On Asante Samuel: "You have to understand that you’re going against a good secondary across the board. It’s a veteran group. It’s a lot of guys that can make plays. Him in particular: everybody’s kind of aware of how he got there and that sort of thing. But it’s something that we’re not going to…we’re aware of where there best players are and conscious of it, but we’re not going to not do what we do, if that answers your question. Everybody in this league is pretty good. There are definitely elite players and he’s one of them. So we’re aware of it, but we’re still going to…we’re not going to close off one side of the field and say, ‘We’re not going to do this.’ We’re going to play our game, and we understand that he’s a very good player. We’re going to have to raise our level."

On whether the defenses have done anything different to lead to 5 INTs in 2 weeks: "I don’t think so. Do you want me to answer the question of why I think there are more picks in the last two weeks? Is that what you’re…?"

On whether defenses are guessing the primary receiver and taking him away: "No. I think I do a pretty good job of understanding what the reads are, checking the ball down and things like that. It’s just a matter of protecting the ball, being conscious of the fact that obviously turnovers are bad but I’m not going to become trigger-shy and start to question my judgment. If I see something, I’m going to throw it to the open guy."

On the difficulty of getting Vernon Davis incorporated into the offense: "I don’t know if I’m the right guy to answer that question." (Fooch: Interesting response)

On his on-field relationship with the Duke: "I think Vernon is an absolute pro. Nobody works harder out here. The last couple weeks we’ve been staying after and I’ve been getting a better feel for him just the last couple weeks. But I’ve had a good feel for him. I don’t know how you can not have a good feel for someone who is that athletic and that fast down the field. We’re just going to keep trying to get him involved as much as we can."

Mike Nolan after the jump...

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Practice is done for the day for both the 49ers and Eagles and we've got the list of DNPs and limited participation folks:

49ers
Did not Participate in Practice
RB Frank Gore - Coach's decision
LB Roderick Green - Stomach Virus
CB Walt Harris - Coach's decision
OT Jonas Jennings - Shoulder
LB Manny Lawson - Hamstring
SS Michael Lewis - Elbow

Eagles
Did not Participate in Practice
G Shawn Andrews - Back
DE Juqua Parker - Knee
S J.R. Reed - Hamstring/Ankle
RB Brian Westbrook - Rib/Ankle

Limited Participation in Practice
WR Reggie Brown - Groin

Full Participation in Practice
DE Victor Abiamiri - Wrist
WR Kevin Curtis - Hernia
S Quintin Demps - Knee
DE Darren Howard - Abdomen
RB Dan Klecko - Hand
QB Donovan McNabb - Chest
TE L.J. Smith - Back

While Rotoworld isn't my bible (see the Houshmanzadeh rumors), on general injury info they're usually pretty reliable.  Kevin Curtis has been out all year and is not really expected back full time until after their Week 7 bye.  However, Rotoworld did mention he might play in a limited role this weekend.  The 49ers will have plenty else to worry about aside from Curtis.

Frank Gore and Walt Harris continue their weekly tradition of no practice on Wednesdays.  Michael Lewis is expected to be available on Sunday and this is more precautionary.  Other than that, nothing too surprising.

There's a common idea that someone can make statistics say just about anything.  In the world of professional sports, statistics are a key instrument, and in fact are one of the reasons many of us love sports like we do.  The last few years has seen a rise in alternative looks at sports statistics, particularly in baseball and football through Baseball Prospectus and Football Outsiders, respectively.  These sites look at new ways to assess the performance of players and teams and give us a better idea of how good or bad a team truly is.

Totals Stats
Prior to the advent of these type of sites, the general way we have looked at, and most continue to look at, NFL teams is through the yards per game statistics.  According to those stats, the 49ers rank 18th in rushing offense, 18th in passing offense and 21st in total offense.  On defense the 49ers rank 23rd in rushing defense, 19th in passing defense and tied for 21st in overall defense.

FO Stats
Over at Football Outsiders, they use a variety of statistics, but I thought we'd just look at DVOA for now.  Sort of take it one bite at a time.  Here's an overall rundown of all their new statistics, but I'll give the quick and dirty explanation they use:

DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: five yards on 3rd-and-4 are worth more than five yards on 1st-and-10 and much more than five yards on 3rd-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative.

I'm introducing these stats now because as I've mentioned in the past, I'd like to use them a little more often.  It's taken time to do that but once again, I hope we can do that.

Through week 5, Football Outsiders ranks the 49ers 26th in passing offense, 12th in rushing offense and 26th in overall offense.  Overall it's not a dramatic change from the traditional stats, but the difference can be seen in the rushing and passing offense.  The 49ers passing offense DVOA is -18.3%, while there rushing game is 0.6%.  0% always represents league average and on offense, positive is better.

On defense, FO ranks the 49ers 8th against the pass, 24th against the run and 11th in overall defense.  Clearly this differs quite dramatically as compared to the traditional stats.  In this case, the 49ers passing defense DVOA is -13.1%, while there rushing defense is 9.1%.  Since defense is the inverse of offense, a negative number is better (0% is still league average).

Initially I was thrown off by the particularly high passing defensive rank.  I can't even begin to look at everything they consider, but looking at the first 5 box scores, if you throw out the Saints game, the 49ers pass defense hasn't exactly been shredded in the traditional sense.  Randy Moss had his big play, Cassel got some yards in the mix, Boldin had a big second half.  However, in reality, the rushing defense is what killed the 49ers.

Traditional stats rank the 49ers 19th in passing defense, while FO ranks them 8th.  In traditional yards per game stats, a 15 yard pass on 3rd and 20 has the same value as a 15 yard pass on 3rd and 10.  This exact type of play happened in the Patriots game leading to that last Pats field goal.  On 3rd and 20 the Patriots completed a 13 yard pass.  DVOA would not value that completion at the same level as passing yards per game and that is reflected in a higher pass ranking by Football Outsiders.

Now this doesn't mean that I'm trying to argue that the 49ers pass defense is better than it is.  It's clearly struggling, but I think this shows how much bigger a concern the rush defense should be.  Hopefully this makes some modicum of sense.  It took me some time to break it down in my head and I'm probably still mis-speaking in certain areas.  Feel free to share your own thoughts.

  vs. 

One of the new perks I've come to enjoy is getting the media release for the upcoming game each week.  It includes a wild assortment of information and is basically acts as a weekly update to the annual media guide.  Accordingly, I'll post some of the information from that to help people prep for the upcoming matchup.  For those who check out Mile High Report, the title is a complete rip-off from a similar feature they run.  If you have any suggestions for an alternative name I'm all ears.  I'd like to use something different but haven't come up with a better idea yet.  On to the facts:

The 49ers host the Philadelphia Eagles in what will be the 28th contest between the two teams, dating back to 1951. San Francisco holds a 17-9-1 advantage over Philadelphia, including the postseason. The last time the two teams met was in 2006, when the Eagles traveled to San Francisco and defeated the 49ers 38-24.

The 49ers are looking to snap a two-game losing streak after falling to the New England Patriots 30-21 last week. In that game, QB J.T. O’Sullivan posted a career-high three touchdown passes, but also threw three interceptions on the day. WR Isaac Bruce was on the end of two of the touchdown throws, marking his 13th career multi-touchdown game and the third consecutive game that he has scored a receiving score. He now has four touchdowns in the past three contests. LB Takeo Spikes recorded his second interception in as many games as he picked off a QB Matt Cassel pass in the first quarter. RB Frank Gore totaled 78 yards and enters this week’s game ranked first in the NFL with 603 total yards from scrimmage.

Philadelphia also enters this week’s game on a two-game losing streak, having fallen to the Washington Redskins 23-17 last week after dropping a close 24-20 contest to the Chicago Bears a week prior.

After the jump, we've got a recap of the 2006 matchup, as well as some other facts and stats about the teams.

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