2007 Projected QB Rankings

by SBakerTheTouchdownMaker on May 20, 2007 8:59 AM EDT Comment 12 comments

NOTE: Loyal reader SBakerTheTouchdownMaker initially posted this in the 'Diaries' section. It's a great conversation piece, so let's hear your thoughts. I'll check in later with my own thoughts.

I stumbled upon this list of the top 32 NFL Quarterbacks (projected starters) for the upcoming 2007 season. This list was based on how each player would perform during the '07 season.

Here's a link: http://fannation.com/blogs/post/14552

And here's the actual list:
1 Peyton Manning
2 Tom Brady
3 Carson Palmer
4 Drew Brees
5 Philip Rivers
6 Donovan McNabb
7 Ben Roethlisberger
8 Marc Bulger
9 Matt Hasselbeck
10 Michael Vick
11 Tony Romo
12 Matt Leinart
13 Jay Cutler
14 Vince Young
15 Brett Favre
16 Steve McNair
17 Alex Smith
18 Jeff Garcia
19 Jake Delhomme
20 Chad Pennington
21 Jon Kitna
22 ELI MANNING
23 Damon Huard
24 Trent Green (assuming he's a Dolphin)
25 Jason Campbell
26 Rex Grossman
27 Byron Leftwich
28 J.P. Losman
29 Matt Schaub
30 Josh McCown
31 Tarvaris Jackson
32 Charlie Frye

It says this list is the top 32 QBs (best numbers) at the end of the 2007 season. So I'm assuming this is alot similar to fantasy value.

Major non-Giants-related gripes:

Rivers #5 is too high. I'd put him in the top 10 but in the 8-10 range.
A healthy McNabb should definitely be in the top 5. No question. Especially with Westbrook coming off a career year.
Roethlisberger #7 (23!! picks)? Not only is that way too high but ahead of Bulger (4300 yards, 23 TD/8 INT in '06)? What a complete joke.
Vick is closer to #20 than he is to #10. When is everyone going to learn that he just isn't very good? Easily the most overrated player in all of sports (even curling).
Cutler #13? Um, yeah ok. Ahead of Vince and Favre? Jesus. That's a major, major stretch.
True when Grossman is bad, he's really bad. But c'mon, there aren't 25 better quarterbacks than Rex. He threw for 3200 yards and 23 TDs last year. I know, lots of picks and fumbles but regardless I'd put him in the top 20, mostly because his team will likely win the division so his numbers won't be awful.
Schaub will be better than #29. That kid has worlds more talent than Leftwich, Losman, Campbell and some of the other stiffs ahead of him. Plus, Andre Johnson is great and Ahman Green quietly had a good year last year. And no, I don't care that the Texans blow and he's going to get sacked like 600 times.

Eli gripes:

Jon Kitna ahead of Eli? Come on. That's just horrible. I don't even really know what to say. Even with Detroit using a 1st round pick on a WR the last eighty years, Kitna still won't be a better QB than Eli. You can argue that Kitna had better numbers than Eli last year (he actually did), but I don't care. Most of that is due to a) The Lions being down 21-0 after the first two minutes of each game hence "chuck it deep!", b) Kevin Jones missing the last quarter of the season, c) Roy Williams being disgusting.
Garcia saved the Eagles season last year but there's absolutely no way he'll have better numbers than Eli with that horrific Tampa Bay offense. What does Cadillac average, like 1.6 yards per carry?
I think Leinart is going to be an absolute stud and he does have alot of weapons (Edge, Boldin, Fitz) around him. But ten spots higher than Eli? I don't agree with that disparity. At least not until the O-Line protecting him improves.
I have a huge problem with Big Ben 15 fucking spots ahead of Eli. If not for Vick, he's the most overrated player in the league, hands down. I don't care that his skull was half-crushed last year, he was absolutely atrocious. Plus, the Steelers are the third best team in that division, and it's not close. I don't see how his numbers are going to be that great. Certainly not top 10 great.
I could go on about how I believe that Eli is a better QB than Pennington, Delhomme and McNair but I'm not. Pennington is perfect for the Jets offense even though he has the arm strength of a weak 12 year old girl, Delhomme has Steve Smith and McNair will never have to throw the ball because all that D needs is 10 points to win games.

I'm trying not to be a homer and I don't think I am being one. I think this article just proves that people are really, REALLY down on the Giants this year. Is this really going to be a 6-10 team? That seems to be what people think. The '06 team was a couple of plays away from being 10-6 or better and I don't think the '07 version will regress that much just because of Tiki leaving and Pettigout (seriously what's the BFD about Luke?) getting cut. I think Jacobs will be fine and Plax/Shockey will have great years again.

Eli rated 22nd out of 32 NFL Quarterbacks just isn't right.

What are your thoughts?

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Comments

Eli ranking

Eli certainly shoudn't be ranked so low. I'd put him somewhere between 14-16. I'm hoping he'll have a breakout year. God knows he'll have quality receivers aplenty.

by george cronin on May 20, 2007 1:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Tiki

I said this in another post below... I think many media types wonder what effect losing clearly his best offensive weapon(and one of the best period) will have on the kid. It is no small matter. Tiki's ability in both the run and pass game took massive amounts of pressure off Eli and people are wondering if he can survive losing a guy like that.

I think the ranking reflects that uncertainty more than anything.

Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on May 20, 2007 2:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

good point

i agree with you, but he still has plaxico/shockey and i think jacobs has shown flashes. those are still better weapons than cutler (tatum bell/senior-citizen rod smith/javon walker), pennington, favre and some of the others ranked ahead of eli on this list.

by SBakerTheTouchdownMaker on May 20, 2007 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eli's ranking

When I first read this, I didn't realize it was a projection of rankings after the 2007 ends. The thing with Eli is, I don't think you are going to see his best play for another couple years. He's only going into his third season as a full time starter. What ever happened to it taking 3-5 years for a QB to finally get comfortable? I think Bleeding Green could confirm this. I watch a lot of the Eagles living down here in Philly, and McNabb struggled at times his first few years as a passer (accuracy, find receivers, etc). If you look at him now running the offense, he looks totally in control. What fans/media don't have anymore is patience.

www.billkohut.com

by bk0831 on May 20, 2007 6:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Manning and Tiki

You could argue that Eli's presence helped Tiki more than Tiki's helped Eli. Most defenses were geared more toward pressuring Eli, rattling him than they were on stopping Tiki, who had his best years with Eli as the QB.

by george cronin on May 20, 2007 6:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Eli's ranking is definitely too low

OK, I've spent today checking in on the Eli debate and I've been enjoying the back-and-forth. Now, I guess it's my turn to weigh in.

Go back to when I began writing this blog, and you know I believe two things when it comes to Manning: 1. The Giants should have just drafted Ben Roethlisberger instead of giving up so much to trade for him. 2. He will be a fine player, and will become an upper echelon quarterback in the NFL.

That said, he will never be his brother. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are at a different level -- but I do believe Manning can get it done.

Speaking directly about his ranking in this poll, it has to be considered WAYYY too low.

After the first six picks on this list, I think you can really begin to argue that the rest of the rankings are a mess. Roethlisberger at No. 7, coming off a miserable year, is a joke. Michael Vick at 9? Jay Cutler at 13? Jake Delhomme ahead of Manning? Jon Kitna? Gimme a friggin' break!

Shoot, if I was a Jets fan I wouldn't be happy to see Chad Pennington ranked as low as he is, either.

After the top 6, put 'em in whatever order you want ... but Eli has got to be in the top half of the rankings.

Of the QBs from 7 thru 21, I think you make a solid argument that Manning is better than Vick, Cutler, Favre at this point in his career, Steve McNair, Jeff Garcia, Delhomme and Jon Kitna.

For that matter, by the end of the year I think people might feel he's better than Bulger, Tony Romo and Alex Smith.

Let's see, that would bump him all the way to 12th in these rankings, and at this point I think somewhere from 12-15 is probably correct. And I believe he will continue to get better.

I understand the argument that no one is sure about Eli, or the Giants, with Tiki in the booth instead of on the field. I think, however, that Brandon Jacobs is likely to give the Giants enough running game that they won't miss Barber that much. And, I think Barber being gone will help Manning in the sense that he will now be the unquestioned leader of the offense.

So, do I think Manning is ready to be an elite, Top 5 in the league kind of QB? Not now, and maybe not ever.

I do, believe, however, that the Giants can win with him. Ranking him, basically, in the bottom third of starting QBs in the league is a joke.

by Ed Valentine on May 20, 2007 7:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs