Mocking the NFL mock draft madness

Damontre Moore - Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

NFL mock drafts are an exercise in futility at this point in the process, as research pointed out in this post shows.

We bring you tons of NFL mock drafts here at Big Blue View. At the rate we have been going we end up discussing several different mock drafts each week. Truth is, though, yours truly is not a fan of mock drafts. If I didn't do what I do for a living, I would pay them almost no mind -- at least not until the final couple of weeks leading up to the real NFL Draft.

We bring them to you because we know you love them. NFL fans everywhere obsess over them for months on end leading up to the draft. They are, in fact, the life blood of all NFL sites between the end of the Super Bowl and the draft.

Must Reads

Thing is, they mean nothing. And draft this early are almost always crazily inaccurate. How inaccurate? Good friend of Big Blue View Jimmy Kempski, now writing for Philly.com, recently penned a fantastic piece detailing exactly how far off-base mock drafts at this time of year generally are.

Kempski writes that mock drafts done at this time of year "are not only inaccurate, they're not even close."

To validate that point, Kempski charted the picks of five media experts -- Mel Kiper and Todd McShay of ESPN, Don Banks of Sports Illustrated, Pete Prisco of CBS and Peter Schrager of FOX -- for their level of accuracy from February 2013. The winner? Kiper. How (in)accurate was he? Kiper got zero picks correct in the first round and missed his player-by-player projections by 19.1 draft slots. Not even close! Last February Kiper had Damontre Moore going No. 2 overall to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Moore went No. 81 to the Giants in Round 3. Yet, he was the most accurate at this time a year ago.

Why do I bring this up? Certainly not to dampen your fun or your enthusiasm if you are one of those who can't help but dive into every mock draft you see and try to tear it apart. I bring it up simply as a reality check.

While some draftniks may have been obsessing over draft prospects since the 2013 NFL season began, or maybe since the 2013 NFL Draft ended, the real things that impact what NFL teams will do in the 2014 NFL Draft and how they will ultimately view the players they have to choose from are just beginning.

It is really just since the end of the season that NFL general managers have begun their full-scale study of draftable players. Head coaches are also at the very early stages of their own involvement at this point. The college showcase games -- the Shrine Game and Senior Bowl -- were held not that long ago. The NFL Scouting Combine, where teams get to both test players physically and for the first time sit in a room and get to know them personally, has yet to be held. Individual pro days, yet another opportunity for players to change the minds of NFL talent evaluators, come after that.

There is one other major factor -- NFL free agency. That begins March 11, and will have a monumental impact on how every team organizes its draft board. The Giants always say they draft the best player available, but don't you have to believe the BPA on their board will be different if they snag a couple of offensive linemen in free agency? Or, if they lose Justin Tuck and cut Mathias Kiwanuka? Or sign Jermichael Finley or another free-agent tight end?

So, relax. Enjoy the draft process. Enjoy the mocks that we and others present to you. Don't get yourself dug in on a player or two that the Giants "have to have," or the idea that they have to address Position A in Round 1, Position B in Round 2, Position C in Round 3, etc.

Use the mock drafts we offer you, the prospect profiles written by our own trio of draftniks, and the rest of our 2014 NFL Draft coverage to see how the process unfolds. Try not to go crazy over mock selections you don't like.

Right now, nobody knows anything. Not you, me, the teams or the media 'experts.'

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Big Blue View

You must be a member of Big Blue View to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Big Blue View. You should read them.

Join Big Blue View

You must be a member of Big Blue View to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Big Blue View. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker