FanPost

Durst's 2015 NFL Draft - Week Twelve Risers, Sliders, and Big Board

Melvin Gordon Could Break The Heisman's Quarterback Streak

Week 12 Risers

1. Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin:

With Todd Gurley's injury, Gordon is all but guaranteed to be the first RB selected. With Gordon's 408 yard rushing performance against Nebraska, he all but guaranteed that he will be the first RB selected in the first round since 2012...or did he?

First the good.

1. Gordan is only the second player to reach 1,900 yards through 10 games since 2000, and his yards per attempt are 2.8 yards better than the other guy, LaDainian Tomlinson.

2. The adoption of the jet/fly sweep is emerging as one of the hottest trends in the NFL, and Gordon excels in such a role.

3. While Gordan suffered two first-half fumbles against Nebraska, it was 23 degrees, and entering the season, Gordon had not lost a fumble in his 288 career rushing attempts.

4. Despite not starting, last season Gordan led the nation with 7.8 yards per carry.

Now, some of the bad:

1. Gordon had just one reception last season after just two the previous year, and while he is improving, he still has a long-way to go both as a receiver and in pass-protection.

2. Wisconsin RBs have frequently produced eye-popping numbers in college, but most have failed to produce in the NFL lending many to suggest that Wisconsin's powerful offensive line are the real stars.

Against the Cornhuskers, Gordan frequently was not touched for the initial ten yards, and while his acceleration is part of the reason, it is clear he is in a system designed to get Gordon in open space.

He could easily have turned pro last season and reportedly received a second-round grade from the NFL draft advisory board, and most projected he would be he first back off the board. This offseason, he bulked up to 216 pounds, after arriving as a freshman at 195 pounds.

After red-shirting in 2011, he saw limited playing time in 2012 behind Ball and White, but produced stats that would have led some other teams in rushing (621 rushing yards, 10.0 yards per carry). With Ball off to the NFL, Gordon and White shared the running back duties in 2013 with White leading the way with carries, but Gordon had a team-best 1,609 rushing yards, averaging 7.8 yards per rush and 123.8 yards per game.

An obvious comparison emanates in the minds of everyone who watches Gordon. From the dreadlocks dropping out of the back of his helmet, his relatively tall, well-built frame and the number 25 on the back of his jersey, every aesthetic about Gordon reminds onlookers of the Kansas City Chiefs Jamaal Charles.

Entering the season, both NFL.com's Bucky Brooks and ESPN's Todd McShay rated Gordon over Georgia's Todd Gurley. TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline has stated "Gordon ranks head and shoulders above all other Badger prospects", while Arkansas coach Bret Bielema, who coached at Wisconsin, recruited and signed Gordon says the draft process will reveal Gordon's gifts: "What people don't understand is that Melvin will test out of this world."

Durst's take: I would let someone else spend a first round pick on him.

2. DJ Humphries, LT, Florida:

Against South Carolina, Humphries began to play to his pedigree.

Humphries was a consensus five-star and top-20 recruit. Rated as the No. 2 prospect by Rivals.com, the No. 7 prospect by ESPN and the No. 11 prospect by Scout.com, but his lack of size (listed at 6'5/290 by ESPN but only 275 on his Gator's bio) has made it difficult for him against stout SEC defenses.

Humphries had missed time earlier in the season due to a high ankle sprain and a chipped bone in his knee, and in 2013, he played in only seven games, starting the first six at left tackle, before a knee injury ended his season.

This is more of a hunch, but back to good health, I have a feeling Humphries makes a rapid ascension up the rankings and escapes the crumbling Florida Gators program with it's uncertainty at head coach.

3. Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa:

At 6'5/320, Scherff is better prospect than former Iowa first-round OTs Bryan Bulaga and Riley Reiff. While Iowa offensive lineman are though of as well-coached, and known for their toughness, they are typically not elite athletes. That is not the case with Scherff, who was one of 20 college players named to Bruce Feldman's annual "All Freaks" list.

The red-shirt senior primarily played guard (3 starts) in 2011, then moved to OT, starting Iowa's first seven games in 2012 before missing the last five games with a broken fibula and dislocated ankle. He was healthy in 2013, starting all 13 games, and many thought he would have been a first-round pick had he declared for the 2014 NFL draft.

Back in September, CBS Sports' Rob Rang wrote "Scherff compares favorably to last year's #6 pick Jake Matthews", while also calling him "more polished than (Texas A$M's Cedric) Ogbuehi", while ESPN's Mel Kiper called Scherff the best run-blocker in the country.

Iowa's offense is based on a power-running game, and some scouts seem to feel that his pass-protection skills have not been tested. In fact, one NFL scout told CBS Sports' Dane Brugler that his team is evaluating Iowa senior T Brandon Scherff as a guard only.

Notable is that he suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee on September 6th but continued to play. The injury required surgery, and he was expected to miss three weeks, but displayed his toughness by starting the next week, just four days after his surgery!

Just because I have the Hawkeyes' LT listed in my guard rankings, does not mean I am "down" on him, and I do think he would play OT in the NFL. I just believe he would deserve top-billing as a guard, while simply being in-the-mix as a OT. (I have a similar view with LSU's La'el Collins)

4. Erik Flowers, LT, Miami:

Another LT who has rapidly returned after suffered a torn meniscus. Flowers suffered his injury October 23rd against Virginia Tech, missed the Nov 1st game against UNC, but was able to start, and play well against Florida State.

This was a tough task, as he was asked to block FSU's Mario Edwards, the former USA Today's HS players of the year, and two-year starting DE who most feel will be a first round pick in the 2015 NFL draft.

He played 77 snaps against FSU and suffered no setbacks. He is emerging as a top OT prospect.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-hurricanes/fl-miami-football-1119-20141118-story.html

5. Deon Bush, S, Miami:

Against FSU, Bush forced a fumble and made an interception.

I was very impressed with Bush two seasons ago when he started as a true freshman ( made six starts ... second-team Freshman All-America). I was surprised when in 2013 he all but disappeared (just three starts). Evidently, injuries were to blame, because Bush more like what I expected last season.

He is an elite FS prospect with center-field range. Currently Bush is Miami's second-leading tackler (with 45) and ranked fifth nationally with four forced fumbles.

He is doing this despite living off-campus, and back with his father as he battles liver cancer.

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/college/acc/university-of-miami/article3873532.html

6. Jarvis Harrison, LG (LT), Texas A&M:

From what I have seen, I believe Harrison is a mid-to-late round prospect and will move back to guard in the pros, but it is certainly not hurting the cause, that he is getting the opportunity to man the LT spot forcing Cedric Ogbuehi to the right side.

7. Cameron Erving, Center, FSU:

Cam Erving's move to center was not due to HIS poor play at LT, but instead it was an attempt to improve the interior of FSU's offensive line. Mission accomplished as FSU only allowed one sack (although, that was by Erving).

Rumor has it, Erving had been practicing at center on Mondays all season, in preparation for such a move.

Erving had been struggling with speed-rushers and the move to center may salvage his draft stock. I began this season with a first -round grade, lowered it to a third, and now back up to the second-round (as a center).

Erving began his career at DT, was moved to and started at LT for nearly three full seasons, but may have finally round a home at center.

8. Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami:

Against Florida State, Dorsett caught four passes for 90 yards with one touchdown.

Coming into last weekend with only 19 receptions, few WRs are as underused. That being said, Dorsett came into the game leading the nation in yards per reception with over 30 ypc. The NCAA record is 31.9 yards per catch.

His high yards per catch is not simply catching people off guard, as he is one of the favorites to win this years' fastest man (40 yard-dash) at the NFL combine (he reportedly ran a 4.21 over the summer).

As explosive as Dorsett is, his role in UM's gameplan has been up and down his entire career.

The problem is that Dorsett is very small, listed at 5'10/195 and has inconsistent hands. He appears to be unable to win in contested situations, and twice against FSU he was targeted in the endzone, but could not bring in the pass (once Darby was called for pass-interference).

Two of Dorsett's passes were of the opportunistic variety, once may have been a miscommunication between FSU CB Ronald Darby, and another was after Darby slipped and fell.

Dorsett will likely be a third or fourth WR in the NFL who will make a living in the return game even though he has not been used much in that role since his sophomore season.

Week 12 Sliders

1. Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State:

Entering the season, I was very high on Prescott. So high, that I had as my fifth-ranked (early 2nd round) QB last spring, back when nobody else was talking about him.

"Prescott is poised for a breakout year. The Louisiana native threw for 1,940 yards and 10 touchdowns last season and added 829 yards and 13 scores. Prescott averaged 269.3 total yards per game through eight SEC contests and should build off of those totals with a full off-season to recover from a shoulder injury. There’s a ton of upside with Prescott in 2014"

So, I was very excited that he has been doing so well this season, and in my week two "risers" I compared Prescott to Jake Locker. After watching MSU play about five times this season, I now believe Prescott looks more like Jake Locker, the draft bust, and less like Jake Locker the top-10 draft prospect.

Against Alabama, Prescott was 27 of 48 for two TDs, and three interceptions. He also added 22 carries, but averaged only 3.7 yards per carry. He was in the shotgun on every play.

Of Prescott's 48 passes, 27 were completed, but 17 of them were caught just five yards or less past the line of scrimmage.


2. Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia:

I guess those who said being suspended would help Gurley's draft prospects because he can't get hurt sitting on the bench were correct.

Like, I said after the suspension, the guys' body may look like it is designed to hammer a defense 25 times per game, but it isn't. A torn ACL may seem flukey, but I told you this guy is fragile. Before arguing, look at his injury history. He has been hurt multiple times all three seasons.

It has been reported that Gurley also dealt with nagging injuries (knee, shoulder, and leg) during his spectacular freshman season, then battled both ankle and thigh injuries in 2013. (Last season, Gurley played in just ten of the Bulldog's 13 games, and missed parts of several others). He then battled more nagging injuries this season before the suspension, and then suffered a torn ACL in his first game back.

Buyer beware.

3. Frank Clark, DE, Michigan:

Another player that has been on my "risers" and also a member of my "top 10 players I love more than you", I hate the fact that Clark appears to come with significant character concerns.

A few days ago, Michigan dismissed senior DE Frank Clark from the football program after Clark was arrested last weekend after being accused of domestic violence. The victim accusing Michigan senior Frank Clark, his live in girlfriend, told police the DE punched her in the face.

4. Karlos Williams, RB, Florida State:

Against Miami, Williams got only four carries for ten yards, and was thoroughly outplayed by freshman RB Dalvin Cook.

An upper-epsilon athlete, Williams came to FSU as a five-star recruit, ranked by some as the nation's #1 safety prospect.

So gifted is Williams that he managed 11 tackles in his first start on defense (2012 ACC Championship game) With FSU up 21-15, but Georgia Tech having the ball, Williams interception and return sealed the victory for the Seminoles.

Fast-forward to 2013, when Williams first touch on offense went for a 65 yard touchdown (game two, against Nevada, with less than a week working with the offense).

Although he has played offense ever since, Williams does not seem to have the vision found in elite NFL running backs, instead relying on his 6'1/225 chiseled frame. In fact, the same lack of instinct that held him back as a defensive player seems to have carried over to offense, where he "flashes" but does not consistently perform at a high level.

Although, the Tallahassee Police have dropped the investigation for an alleged domestic assault, Williams still will have plenty of questions to answer as NFL teams have heightened their awareness on such issues.

Entering the season, I saw Williams as a possible Christine Michael/Kniles Davis caliber RB, and had him as my 8th ranked RB, expecting him to break-out this season.

Although that has not happened, and Williams has slid in my ranking from eighth to 11th (early 3rd to mid 4th round), I expect his stock will rise.

You see, Williams will get a second chance, as the off-season can change opinions of NFL teams. Williams is a senior whose potential may endear him to Senior Bowl (not invited at this time) and he will likely be near the top in most NFL combine evaluations.

5. Ameer Abdullah, RB, Nebraska:

Abdullah is battling injuries, so I almost didn't include him, but last weekend showed why I am not as high as most.

Against Wisconsin, Abdullah fumbled twice (one was overturned) and misconnected on a hand-off (not really his fault) and so was bad in pass-protection that the announcer (former NFL LB Chris Spielman) stated that they need to get his out of there and put in someone else.

Abdullah supporters have been questioning my ranking since I placed a fourth-round grade on him last spring. So far, I have only increased it to a mid-to-late third.

He is undersized, has ball-security issues, and is unproven in the passing game.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
QB Mariota Brett Hundley Bryce Petty Kevin Hogan Shane Carden Garrett Grayson
Jameis Winston Wes Lunt Dat Prescott Sean Mannion Brandon Bridge Everett Golson Taylor Kelly
Connor Cook Gunner Keil Cody Kessler
Jacoby Brissett Bo Wallace Dylan Thompson
RB
Tevin Coleman Duke Johnson Javorius Allen Malcolm Brown David Cobb Thomas Rawls

Jeremy Langford Jay Ajayi Karlos Williams

Matt Jones

Johnathan Gray Cameron Artis-Payne

TJ Yeldon Ameer Abdullah Jonathan Williams Jamaal Williams Storm Woods Michael Dyer
Melvin Gordan Todd Gurley Mike Davis DJ Foster Josh Robinson Rushel Shell Nick Marshall
WR Amari Cooper Sammy Coats D'haquille Williams Deontay Greenberry Kasen Williams Kyle Prater Mitch Matthews
Jaelen Strong Quinshad Davis Rashad Greene Breshad Perriman Dres Anderson Jarrod West Josh Harper
DeVante Parker Nelson Agholor Antwan Goodley Justin Hardy Devin Smith Jameon Lewis
Chris Harper
Dorial Green-Beckham Tyreek Hill Stephon Diggs Sterling Sheppard Byron Marshall (RB?) Phillip Dorsettt Malcolm Mitchell
Kevin White Ty Montgomery Vince Mayle Austin Hill Kenny Bell Alonzo Russell Malcolm Kennedy
Devin Funchess Tony Lippett Devante Davis Cayleb Jones Jamison Crowder
Deon Long Jaxon Shipley
TE
Jesse James Jeff Heuerman EJ Bibbs Rory Anderson Jake McGee Dillon Gordan

Clive Walford
Nick O"Leary

Jay Rome

Ben Koyack
Randall Telfer

Blake Bell
Malcolm Johnson
Cameron Clear
OT Andrus Peat Ronnie Stanley Corey Robinson Spencer Drango Malcolm Bunche
Mickey Baucus Rob Havenstein
Ereck Flowers Donovan Smith Jason Spriggs Ty Sambralio Blaine Clausell John Theus Desmond Harrison
Cedric Ogbuehi TJ Clemmings Darryl Williams Eric Lefeld
Jake Fisher Quinterrius Eatmon Austin Shepherd
DJ Humphries Tyrus Thompson Sean Hickey La'Raven Clark Taylor Decker Michael Yeck Simon Goines
OG Brandon Scherff AJ Cann Laken Tomlinson Arie Kouandjio
Adam Shead Conor Hanratty
Justin Malone
La'el Collins Jamil Douglas Tre' Jackson Torrian Wilson
Vadal Alexander
Kyle Costigan
Alex Barr

Kaleb Johnson Josue Matias Quinton Spain Landon Turner Jon Feliciano Willie Beavers
OC

Cam Erving

Hroniss Grasu

Reese Dismukes
Isaac Seumalo

Shane McDermott

Max Tuerk

BJ Finney

Andrew Gallik Evan Boehm

Brandon Vitabile

Max Garcia

DE
Leonard Williams Danielle Hunter Marcus Golden Frank Clark Shaquille Riddick Henry Anderson
DE
Shane Ray Trey Flowers Owamagbe Odighizuwa Theiren Cockran Preston Smith Hau'oli Kikaha
DE
Shawn Oakman Dante Fowler Cedric Reed Martin Ifedi
Deion Barnes
Ryan Russell
Ryan Muller
DE

Mario Edwards

Shilique Calhoun

DeForest Buckner

Za'Darius Smith

Devonte Fields

Caleb Azubike

Jonathan Bullard
Darius Hamilton
Eddie Vanderdoes Noah Spence

Marcus Rush

Ray Drew

DT Eddie Goldman Danny Shelton Adolphus Washington
Kaleb Eulls
JT Surratt Travis Raciti
Isaac Gross
Malcom Brown
Carl Davis
Michael Bennett

Terry Williams

Grady Jarrett
Tyeler Davison

Luther Maddy
Brandon Ivory
David Parry
Matt Hoch
Arik Armstead Sheldon Day Gabe Wright
Ellis McCarthy Leon Orr Woods Kalafitoni Pole
ILB
Stephone Anthony Ramik Wilson AJ Johnson Hayes Pullard Jake Ryan AJ Tarpley
Benardrick McKinney Eric Kendricks Amarlo Herrera Henry Coley Tyler Matakevich
Steve Edmond
Dalton Santos

Denzel Perryman Reggie Ragland Trey DePriest Curtis Grant Mike Hull Antonio Morrison
OLB Randy Gregory Lorenzo Mauldin Jordan Jenkins Eric Striker Xzavier Dickson Norkeithus Otis JR Tavai
Leonard Floyd Alvin Dupree Eli Harold Josh Forrest Dadi Nicolas Terrance Plummer Derrick Malone
Shaq Thompson Vic Beasley Terrance Smith Tony Washington Terrance Plummer CJ Johnson James Vaughters
CB Trae Waynes PJ Williams

Zach Sanchez Ladarius Gunter Duke Thomas Tevin Mitchel Kevon Seymour
Doran Grant Ron Darby Alex Carter Lafayette Pitts Quandre Diggs Steven Nelson Tim Scott (S?)
Jonathan McKnight
Marcus Peters De'Vante Harris Deshazor Everett Senquez Golson Blake Countess Damian Swann Justin Coleman
Ifo Ekpre-Olomu Jaelen Collins Julian Wilson (S?) Kevin White Kevin Peterson Byron Jones (S?) Damarious Randall
S
Deon Bush Jalen Mills Kurtis Drummond

Anthony Harris

Chris Hackett

Sam Carter

Clayton Geathers Craig Bills
Landon Collins Ladarrell McNeil Cody Prewitt Josh Shaw (CB?) Eric Rowe Karl Joseph Kyshoen Jarrett
Gerod Holliman Durrell Eskridge Adrian Amos Justin Cox (CB?) Derron Smith Jordan Richards Ibraheim Campbell

FanPosts are written by community members. This is simply a way for community members to express opinions too long to be contained in a comment.