If it's safe you prefer when it comes to fantasy football, David Wilson may not be the right choice for you. But if it's high-risk, high reward, then perhaps the New York Giants running back could be a fit.
After breaking down Wilson's rookie season, Rotoworld's Evan Silva saw some glaring weaknesses in the running back's game. He also came away with a number of positive takeaways, including the number of strides Wilson made down the stretch.
Among the obvious flaws was Wilson's fumbling. That's how Wilson got in head coach Tom Coughlin's doghouse Week 1. But Wilson's inability to hold onto the rock was not the sole reason why Wilson didn't see the field much until the latter half of the year.
"Fumbling is fixable -- and Wilson did so after Week 1 -- but another concern I had with his rookie-year tape was a raw, almost wild playing style with a lot of improvisation that made Wilson a boom-or-bust back," Silva wrote.
"He was prone to negative runs. Wilson totaled 392 yards from scrimmage in his first NFL season. 188 of them (48.0 percent) came on seven plays. Wilson showed a frequent tendency to attempt to make plays outside of the design of the offense, which I can't imagine helped him gain any more of conservative Coughlin's already fleeting trust."
The tape revealed that of Wilson's 75 touches, 32 were gains or two yards or less. That amounts to almost 43 percent.
Wilson tallied 392 yards from scrimmage in 2013 and 188 (42 percent) came on seven plays.
His pass protection was already a concern, but so was his pass catching. Silva criticized his route running, decision making and hands.
Throughout the season, though, Wilson took a giant leap forward.
When Ahmad Bradshaw and Andre Brown were injured and the opportunity for more touches presented itself, Wilson took full advantage. It appeared the rookie's confidence grew, which translated to greater production.
In the New York Giants' final four games, he averaged more than six yards per touch and nearly six yards per carry. He also found the end zone four times, not including his 97-yard kickoff return score Week 14 against the New Orleans Saints.
"Wilson got better and better as his rookie year progressed. His confidence seemed to improve and he found a late-season rhythm as Coughlin entrusted him with heavier workloads," Silva wrote. "There were still boom-or-bust elements to his game, but less and less ... I believe David Wilson has the physical tools to develop into an elite NFL back. And I'm not using "elite" lightly."
The overall message is that Wilson posses boom-or-bust traits. He could break out on any given Sunday, but also drop a donut-like effort. Of course, this is one of the more frustrating qualities when drafting a fantasy back.
If you're expecting Wilson to be an RB1, then perhaps you need to readjustment your thinking.
Wilson is the ideal RB2 or flex -- that, of course, depending on if you can draft him late enough in your draft to make that happen.
In addition to the all-or-nothing trait, he's going to split carries with Brown. And what we saw from Brown last year -- his ability to thrive in short-yardage and goal-to-go situations -- means he'll probably be a vulture when it comes to robbing Wilson of touchdowns.
Depending on when you are able to snag Wilson in the draft will determine his value. It's as simple as that. Boom or bust, a rotational backfield and the fact that too many fumbles or difficulty pass protecting could all lead to diminished playing time, and we've yet to actually see how much progress the sophomore has made.
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