Well last week was pretty solid after missing the week before as I went 8-5 (I forgot to pick the Tennessee Titans game) bringing my season record up to 72-77-4, which is not great, but I have been good since an atrocious start to the season, and if I can win this week I'm guaranteed to win money in my fantasy football money league.
Let's take a look at the action, a lot of which is happening today.
Green Bay at Detroit Lions (-5.5)
This is THE Lions day every year when they are terrible. The last time the Lions played Matt Flynn he threw for six touchdowns and earned himself a fat contract from Seattle. And now he's back. I think the Lions win this game big. They had a terrible loss last week, this is a game that they have every year and it feels like they play well in it, and Matt Flynn is not good. He doesn't throw for six touchdowns again.
It seems like the Cowboys always get a terrible team to wallop on Thanksgiving, never the less, after last week I'm convinced the Cowboys are just not that good a football team. I think the Raiders keep it close -- they don't get too many games on national television out in Oakland and I think they play big today. This is also not the same Raiders team that the Giants saw because they have a different starting quarterback who can throw accurate passes.
This game could very well decide the second wildcard in the AFC. They both need this game in a big way. The Steelers area thorn in the side for the Ravens, but on Thursday night -- Thanksgiving night I think the Ravens win. Flacco has a history of coming up big in big games.
Carolina is a very good team, but the Buccaneers are not a terrible team. Mike Glennon has stabilized the team and they have been in every game since he took over (even out in Seattle). Bucs lose but stay within nine points.
Pick: Tampa Bay
I've picked the Jaguars a lot this year because the point spreads have been ridiculous, but I think the Browns beat up on the Jaguars this weekend. Do you know what bad teams don't like doing? Traveling 900 miles from their comfy southern temperatures to go play on a rock hard surface in the cold (a high 38 degree forecast for Sunday in Cleveland). This should come with an asterisk though because Brandon Weeden is terrible.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-4)
The wheels on the bus aren't falling off in Indianapolis, but this team looks different without Reggie Wayne. Meanwhile, the Titans keep chugging along trying to find that 6th playoff spot. Even with that being said I think the Colts figure it out this week and win by more than 4.
Pick: Daaaaa Bears
The Cardinals have a good defense and Carson Palmer is turning the ball over less lately. It also helps that Michael Floyd, whom I loved in the draft, is finally showing off some of the traits that made me think he'd be a good NFL player (761 yards receiving, 15.5 yards per reception). But with that being said the Cardinals are much better at home. They are 2-3 on the road this year beating only Jacksonville and Tampa Bay (early in the season). I think the Eagles win this game.
Quick fact. The Houston Texans are No. 1 in the league in defense in yards per game this year and No. 26 in points per game. How does that happen? I Think they have been embarrassed enough this year and come out and play well. Plus doesn't it always seem when a team has a crazy win like the Patriots did last week they have a bit of a letdown the next week
The Pick: Houston
See the Cleveland Browns explanation for this pick except replace "cold" with "Toronto" and just add in the fact that Atlanta thought they'd be good this year which makes it even more of a lock that they don't bring their A game this week.
The Rams have found their defense as of late and Zac Stacy has stabilized their run game. Add in the fact that Tavon Austin and the Rams have finally figured out how to get Austin some space to run and you have a team should be surging, but Kellen Clemens is awful. Still, I think the Rams make it interesting and keep the game within 9.5 points.
I need a big game from Peyton Manning to ensure a win in fantasy football, unfortunately he's going up against the Chiefs in Kansas City. I still believe in Denver, though their early season dominant form is slipping a bit.
I have a hard time trusting the Bengals ever and the Chargers desperately need this game. The thing that give me the most pause is that the Bengals are coming off a bye week. But after a quick Google search I discovered the Bengals are only 3-6-1 under Marvin Lewis after the bye week, so I'll take my gut instinct and pick the underdogs.
Pick: San Diego
Last week I picked Dallas and nearly got booed out of the stadium. This week I think the Giants handle the Redskins -- I actually think they're going to sweep the Redskins this year, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Redskins won with Alfred Morris and smoke and mirrors last year. This year they still have Morris chugging along, but not the smoke and the mirrors. The Giants defense is also much, much better than it was last year and one thing the Redskins don't do well is rush the passer (still better than the Giants at it though). So sorry, root for the Giants to lose so they can have a top five pick, I think the Giants still have a few more wins in them this year. And they start by winning the least-anticipated NBC Sunday Night Game of the season.
New Orleans at Seattle Seahawks (-4)
New Orleans is not as good on the road as they are at home. Everyone thinks the Saints have a good shot at winning this game, meanwhile I think Seattle wins big. I think Lynch has a good game and we start to see the impact of Percy Harvin.