NFL Picks Week 7: Game-by-game predictions against the spread

Andrew Luck - Kevork Djansezian

Jesse picks NFL week 7 games against the spread.

I came back to earth a little bit in Week 6 after two very good weeks, going 7-7-1 last week. That brings me to 40-45-3 on the season, which is not great, but 26-14-2 since Week 4. which is pretty good. Unfortunately for us here at Big Blue View the New York Giants have not had the same kind of turnaround and are still at a miserable and almost unfathomable 0-6. As always I'll highlight five games I feel most comfortable with and then just pick the rest of the games.

[Related: SB Nation Week 7 Picks]

Best Bets

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-10.5)

The Miami Dolphins are a pretty good team, but they don't play a type of game that you would expect them to blow anyone out, let alone the Bills who have shown to be a gritty team that has been within three points more often than not except for the Thursday night game against the Browns (and you can throw away Thursday night games). The Bills rely on a solid defense and a good running game and the Dolphins do the same. I'd expect a fairly low-scoring game that is pretty close. I'll take the Bills to stay with in 10.5 points ... whoever their quarterback will be this week. Pick: Bills

Dallas Cowboys (1.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

I still feel like the Eagles are winning games with smoke and mirrors, but that the Cowboys are actually a solid team with a good quarterback and an opportunistic defense. I think the Cowboys are better than the Eagles and will win the game convincingly even in Philadelphia although they are without Demarcus Ware or Demarco Murray. Pick: Cowboys

Seattle Seahawks (-7) at Arizona Cardinals

Last year the Cardinals actually beat the Seahawks at home, even though that was forever ago (first game of the 2012 season). The fact is the Cardinals are a much better team at home than they are on the road and the Seahawks are not as good on the road as they are on home. I think the Cardinals defense is gelling and should be able to keep this game close an maybe even pull out a victory, provided Carson Palmer does not turn the ball over five times (though I'm not terribly confident that will happen). Pick Cardinals

Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins (pick 'em)

I think the Bears are the more consistent team than the Redskins and I also think top to bottom they have the better roster. I expect the Bears to be able to travel into Washington and beat the Redskins even though the Bears are not the same excellent defense we have come to expect they are giving up an average of 26.8 points per game while they are scoring 28.7. Pick: Bears

Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-11)

I pick the Green Bay Packers almost every week, but I think 11 points is too much for an injured Packers team that is playing against a tough, physical defense in the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are top 11 in all major defensive categories (11th in points, 7th in yards, 8th in pass yards, and 7th in rush yards). I also am expecting a pretty good game from Brandon Weeden this week against a porous secondary in Green Bay that is giving up nearly 300 passing yards per game this season. The Packers are a solid team, but this is not the 15-1 Packers of a few years ago and the Browns are a legitimate quarterback away from being a playoff team. Pick: Browns

Other Games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-6)
Pick: Falcons

St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers (-5.5)
Pick: Panthers

Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions (-3)
Pick: Bengals

San Diego Chargers (-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Jaguars

New England Patriots (-4.5) at New York Jets
Pick: Patriots

San Francisco 49ers (-6) at Tennessee Titans
Pick: Titans

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)
Pick: Texans

Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Ravens

Denver Broncos (-7) at Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Colts

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants (-3.5)
Pick: Giants

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