This will be the second of my three 2013 NFL mock drafts I'll do for Big Blue View. I'm not like every other mock drafter out there--I don't like to make the consensus pick every time because A) it's boring to read, there are 1,000 other mock drafts you can find with the same basic selections. And B) it rarely ever turns out that way. I like to look at out-of-the-box scheme and personnel fits for each team. In my last mock draft to be put out on about draft day I'll try to actually predict what I think will happen. I'm not predicting trades though there are always at least a handful of them that happen in the draft.
After writing this (I'm not re-doing any of it!) I think I went a little heavier on cornerbacks early in the second round than I probably should have because I couldn't believe the value of players that were available late in the second round, but that is the nature of the league. Every team needs more corners so perhaps that will come to fruition and if it does it will only help the Giants land a good player.
I also only had four quarterbacks drafted in the first two rounds, they are just so average this year and it's likely more than four could be drafted by the Giants second pick. I think the Giants are going to get a very nice player in the second round, while I can envision scenarios where the Giants don't steal a player in the first (though they do in this particular mock).
1. Kansas City Chiefs-Eric Fisher, T, Central Michigan
Because, why not? Seriously, the Chiefs are not in a great position here, I think they would even take a smaller than ideal load (say just a second rounder) to move down to the Raiders, Cardinals, or Bills to get Geno Smith. They just franchised a good LT. I think Joeckel is still more likely to go here than Fisher, but I chose Joeckel last time so why not mix it up a bit.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars-Dion Jordan, DL/OLB, Oregon
Gus Bradley last year ran a very different defense than many teams in the league are running and I think he could maximize Jordan's ability. In this draft class I think it might be just best to draft on upside. There is not a whole lot separating the top players. I think the Jaguars are okay at tackle and I think they're going to give Gabbert another chance. Damontre Moore's poor combine, Dee MIlliner's positonal value (no cornerback has ever been drafted in the top 2 picks (and Bradley and the Seattle defense had a lot of success with lower-drafted cornerbacks) and Jarvis Jones potential degenerative back issue make Jordan the best pick here for me, and a good schematic fit as well.
3. Oakland Raiders-Luke Joeckel, T, Texas A&M
This pick would be much easier to make for me if I had any idea how the Raiders really felt about Pryor's potential, but my feeling is that they don't even feel like they are ready to add a quarterback yet. I think what they are going to try and do is try like heck to trade down -- Reggie Mckenzie the GM who took over after Al Davis passed away was left with a mess. A ton of bad contracts, no draft picks in his first year as a general manager, and just...I'm glad I'm a Giants fan. I don't know if they will be able to move down and if not I think he takes the safe pick here they can't afford to add a bust with how terrible the overall roster is right now.
4. Philadelphia Eagles-Star Lotulelei, DL, Utah
I could very well see the Eagles top three targets as being Joeckel, Fisher, and Jodan, but they are all gone in this mix. Retaining Michael Vick makes me think they'll pass on Smith here if he's available. Even when the Eagles are bad enough to lose and get a high pick they can't really win! So many question marks in the top five to top ten players in the draft and that's not usually the case--usually there are a few standout guys who you feel comfortable taking, although they don't always work out. I like Lotulelei, and it seems as though there is no real worry about his heart. He can play a number of different positions along the Eagles defensive line and they don't really have great 34 up-type fronts right now so it fills a big need and is solid value.
5. Detroit Lions-Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
I could also easily see him going to the Eagles, but I don't think he's quite as good as Patrick Peterson and he's actually about where I graded Prince Amukamara coming out in 2011. The Lions secondary has been awful for awhile--Eric Fisher makes sense if he's available here because they lost Jeff Backus (retired) and Godser Cherilus (Colts in free agency) during the off-season.
6. Cleveland Browns-Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State University
First real surprise pick of the draft here. The Browns added Desmond Bryant and Paul Kruger in free agency to give them a front three of Bryant, Phil Taylor, Athyba Rubin/Billy Winn and Kruger, Chris Cogong, Dqwell Jackson, and Jabaal Sheard at outside linebacker. The Browns recently indicated that they don't believe Buster Skrine to be an outside starter, which means they don't currently have another starting cornerback on their roster. Shariff Floyd also makes a lot of sense here as well
7. Arizona Cardinals-Lane Johnson, T, Oklahoma Sooners
I don't get all the Lane Johnson love, but it seems very possible that he'll be one of the top 11 or 12 picks in this draft. The Cardinals absolute greatest two needs are quarterback and offensive tackle. I think it'll be a major upset if they don't take one of those two positions with the No. 7 overall pick.
8. Buffalo Bills-Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
I know that Ryan Nassib has been connected to the Bills ad nauseum and that Doug Marrone's teams handled Smith pretty well, but I still think Smith is unquestionably the best quarterback in this class and Buddy Nix is at the end of the line in Buffalo. It's not his style to trade up and get Smith, but I think he could do it here. Ralph Wilson is not getting any younger and if the Bills don't show a ton of improvement this year Nix will be out of a job--that kind of job insecurity could finally get the Bills to do something they should have done numerous times over the past few years (move up for Kaepernick, make a play for RGIII, select Russel Wilson, etc. etc)
I think Matt Barkley is an option here. You see Coradrelle Patterson mocked to the Bills a lot too and that seems very much like the kind of mistake they enjoy making so that's definitely possible.
9. New York Jets-Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
I think the biggest question here is who do the Jets like more here: Jones, Mingo, or Damontre Moore. I'm partial to Jones for their system so he's the pick and it's a good one. The Jets have to figure out how to get consistent pressure on Brady without selling the farm or they'll never get over the hump (well a quarterback would help too). Coradarelle Patterson could be in play here too--he is getting a lot of Julio Jones comparisons.
10. Tennesee Titans-Sharrif Floyd, DL, Florida Gators
This is a value pick here, I could see him going earlier, though I always though he was closer to a 10ish value than a top five value. I think the Titans look long and hard at cornerback too if Xavier Rhodes is available. Chance Warmack is often mocked here but after spending all that money on Andy Levitre I'd be surprised if they also added a first round pick at guard, too.
11. San Diego Chargers-Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
Eli Manning was right to not want to go to San Diego. While since 2008 Giants have invested in weapons around Eli with picks in the first three rounds on Hakeem Nicks, David Wilson, Rueben Randle, Mario Manningham, Jerel Jernigan, Ramses Barden, Travis Beckum (7 skill position players) the Chargers have invested in: Ryan Matthews, Jacob Hester, Vincent Brown (3 skill position players). Sure not all Eli's targets have worked out, but the Giants keep providing options and that could be why one general manager has won a Superbowl since then and the other just got fired.
12. Miami Dolphins-Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
They really need a cornerback now though I could also seeing them adding a talent like Sheldon Richardson. This might seem like a "reach" pick, but it's not really. Trufant is one of the three cornerbacks likely to be drafted in the first round-and he won't be available in the second round so if the Dolphins want him they have to take him now.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
Someone named Gary Gibson is penciled in as their starter according to Uurlads.com. He's 30 years old, this is his fifth team and he has three career sacks since he entered the league in 2005. I'm not expecting a breakout year. Richardson has the potential to be one of the best players in this draft and makes a ton of sense here for the Buccaneers.
14. Carolina Panthers Ezekiel Ansah, DL, BYU
I almost forgot about Ansah for a moment! I expect him to be drafted higher than this in the draft, but there are some things working against him. He's not quite the same athlete that JPP was entering the draft, and he'll be 24 before next season starts. But since I was playing around with out-of-the box scenarios earlier I didn't place Ansah yet. He goes here, the Panthers could use another pass rusher and this is actually probably better value for ansah than any team will get in the top seven.
15. New Orleans Saints-Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
Not particularly an out of the box pick, but it just makes a lot of sense and he's one of the best players available on the board. The Saints need to pick up someone on defense at any of the three levels.
16. St. Louis Rams-Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia
The Rams biggest need was clearly offensive line, but signing Jake Long helps out with that a lot. The position they are sitting in right now with two first round picks also means that they can probably risk waiting until their second pick in the first round to grab Cooper or Warmack. Guards, usually regardless of how good they are, rarely are selected in the top to top 20 picks in the modern draft. Right now the Rams linebackers are Jo Lunn Dunbar, James Laurinitis, and Sammy Brown. In fact they don't even have any backups listed at strongside or weakside linebacker. My feelings for Ogletree are well documented I feel he has the chance to excel at nearly any position in a 43, or 34 outside linebacker (I wouldn't like him as a 34 OLB that plays the role that Lamar Woodley plays for the Steelers for example). Jeff Fisher will also over look "character" (Cortland Finnegan, Trumaine Johnson, Janoris Jenkins, Pacman Jones etc) if he feels the player is worth it.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers-Damontre Moore, LB, Texas A and M
Moore's game film greater than combine, and this is a great fit for him. He has a relentless motor and knows how to play football. I think this is an excellent match for both team and prospect and even though I don't particularly like the Steelers is one I'd like to see happen.
18. Dallas Cowboys-Johnthan Cooper, G/C, North Carolina
I prefer Chance Warmack to Cooper (slightly), and Warmack is a throw back Dallas offensive linemen like Larry Allen. Defensive tackle and offensive line seem like the most logical choices for the Cowboys in the first round,.
19. New York Giants-Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
This to me is more of an ideal scenario than the one I presented last time. This scenario relies on more than one quarterback being drafted in the top 18 picks, or players like Desmond Trufant, Alec Ogletree (could slide because of character concerns), Damontre Moore (because of his poor combine) being selected higher than they have been projected.
Werner would be a terrific fit for the Giants at right defensive end and if there is any truth to the report that the Giants are looking to move Jason Pierre-Paul more permanently to left defensive end, Werner would be a more natural fit than Tuck at right defensive end. Werner didn't wow at the combine and is kind of flying under the radar a bit here. If I had to pinpoint a prospect who deserves to be in the top 12 that doesn't have an overly concerning issue that could fall into the Giants lap it'd be Werner. I really like Warmack as a prospect, and right now that is the Giants biggest need, but I think on positional value the Giants would take Werner over Warmack. I also still belief that D.J. Fluker will be high on the Giants board.
20. Chicago Bears-Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
I would think the Bears would be thrilled if they could upgrade two positions on the offensive line in the off-season. The Bears would like to see what Jay Cutler can fully bring to the table, but their inability to keep him protected has stunted his impact.
21. Cincinnati Bengals-Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas Longhorns
I think the Bengals would run to the podium to make this pick. Right now they have Taylor Mays starting at safety, which is a bit scary though he has improved since the time he was drafted to play on the 49ers in the second round. Solid value and provides depth and insurance incase Mays can’t be relied on as a full time starter.
22. St. Louis Rams-Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee
There is some buzz that Hunter will be drafted in the first round. He certainly is appealing. He is 6-foot-4, runs a 4.4 40-yard dash and has a 39.5-inch vertical. Hunter, Brian Quick, and Chris Givens along with Jared Cook gives the Rams a few nice options in the passing game for Sam Bradford to take the next step.
23. Minnesota Vikings-Kennan Allen, WR, Cal
Jarius Wright has similar strengths to Harvin as a WR (he’s not in the same class, just the slot WR/speed type) and the Vikings could use another outside option. To tell you the truth this is one team I really don’t have a good feel for what they might do in the draft. This is why I'm going with Allen who is Hakeem Nicksish in terms of his style of play.
24. Indianapolis Colts-Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama
The Colts pretty much addressed every other need in free agency. The Colts aren’t terrible at running bback with Donald Brown, Vick Ballard, and Delone Carter, but they are not particularly good either. I could easily see a player like Johnathan Hankins being the choice here.
25. Minnesota Vikings (via Seahawks)-Datone Jones, DL, UCLA
I don’t have a great feel for what the Vikings will do here, they could definitely consider Jones. Teams and scouts seem to feel very differently about him, some view him as a 34 DE, others a 43 DT, and some think he can be a good 43 defensive ends.
26. Green Bay Packers-Kevin Minter, LB, LSU
I’m not a fan of the Packers linebacker group so I go that direction here. The other position that makes sense is safety there are intriguing options like Matt Elam and Jonathan Cyprien available. Minter is just solid, a leader. The Packers seem to like A.J. Hawk-and Minter can be a similar player, but at a fraction of the cost moving forward.
27. Houston Texans-Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International
The Texans, unless they add Ed Reed, are going to need another safety. Cyprien has showcased very good athletic ability during the pre-draft process after a great season at Florida International. He is a fringe first round prospect and is good value. I like Tavon Austin as well, but they drafted a player, Keshawn Martin that they like and felt kind of filled that role last year.
28. Denver Broncos-Tyler Eifert, TE, Norte Dame
I think ideally they would love for Desmond Trufant to be available here, but in this mock he’s not so they just take the best player available who is Eifert. Manning doesn’t need a stud tight end because he has been able to get by with Joel Dressen,s and Jacob Tamme’s of the world, but adding a player like Eifert is certainly not going to hurt. I just don’t love the defensive ends or cornerbacks available here. I also expect them to add one of the veteran defensive ends who is available (Osi, John Abraham, etc.).
29. New England Patriots-Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
I was actually looking for a place to put Austin to avoid finding the perfect Welker replacement for Brady, but alas. I know Amendonla was signed, but he's not the same type of dangerous weapon Austin who would be perfect for this offense.
30. Atlanta Falcons-Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State
Rumblings are that this is the appropriate value for Hankins. When Hankins is on and ready to play he’s a top 20 guy, but that’s not always the case.
31. San Fran 49ers-Matt Elam, S, Florida
It would make sense to me for the 49ers to targets some players they love and move up and get them, or trade picks this year for future picks next year. They have a very good roster and too many picks—no way they can all make the team. If they do stay put safety or cornerback seems like the likely route to go.
32. Baltimore Ravens-Jamie Collins, OLB, Southern Mississippi
This is a guy I could see going as high as 15 to the Saints (and hat tip to Dan Kadar, or Matthew Fairburn at Mocking The Draft for being the first to make that pick). He is the most appealing 3-4 pass rusher left, which is why I go that direction here.
No deep explanations -- have a question about a pick I’ll answer in comments
(33) Jacksonville Jaguars-Jonathan Banks, CB, Mississippi State
They are projected to start Alan Ball at one cornerback spot (yikes).
(34) San Fran (via Kansas City)-Darius Slay, CB, Mississippi State
(35) Philadelphia Eagles-David Amerson, CB, North Carolina State
He has great ball skills and he showed plus athleticism at combine.
(36) Detroit Lions –Menelik Watson, T, Florida State
They lost two of their top three tackles in the off-season and Stafford needs to be protected
(37) Cincinnati Bengals (from Raiders) –D.J. Fluker, OL, Alabama
Perfect replacement if they can’t get Andre Smith back.
(38) Arizona Cardinals-Matt Barkley, QB, USC
They need one badly.
Browns (exercised pick in Supplemental Draft)
(39) New York Jets-Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas
Why not add a 14th quarterback to the roster?
(40) Tennessee Titans –Justin Pugh, OL, Syracuse
Better value to take a guard here than at 10th overall.
(41) Buffalo Bills-DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson
They want to move Stevie Johnson into the slot more (or at least Gailey wanted to), they could use another WR.
(42) Miami Dolphins-Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State
Going higher if he proves he’s healthy.
(43) Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Jordan Poyer, CB, Oregon State
They need cornerback help, assuming they don’t end up with Revis.
(44) Carolina Panthers –Kawann Short, DT, Purdue
Defensive tackle might be the team’s biggest weakness.
(45) San Diego Chargers-Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas Pine Bluff
Someone is probably going to take a chance on his terrific upside in the second round.
(46) St. Louis Rams- Sylvester Williams, UNC, DT
One of the highest players available here on many boards and they lack great depth at defensive tackle.
(47) Dallas Cowboys-Margus Hunt, DE, SMU
Jerry Jones, say what you will, has never been afraid to take some risks and Hunt has loads of upside.
(48) Pittsburgh Steelers-Markus Wheaton, WR, Oregon State
A natural replacement for Mike Wallace with his dynamic speed.
(49) New York Giants-Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State
I like brownie points. Actually, I just think that middle and weakside linebackers aren’t highly valued positions in the NFL and Brown and Te’o slip all the way to here, that was not originally planned. With the way the league is trending cornerbacks are at a premium and that could help the Giants land a very good player in round two I don’t think the Giants will consider Brown in the first round, but they very well could in the second round.
(50)Chicago Bears-Alex Okafor, DE, Texas
Could be a late first round sleeper so it’s good value here for the Bears.
(51) Washington Redskins-Philip Thomas, S, Fresno State
They have picks this year? Have to get John Mara working on that (I kid, I kid). Good value here if he’s available based on my board.
(52) Minnesota Vikings-Manti Te’o, LB, Norte Dame
Jasper Brinkley got a lot of snaps in the middle for them last year and they’d welcome Te’o. For me personally it's the media circus he has become more than his play on the field that makes him last this long.
(53) Cincinnati Bengals-Robert Woods, WR, USC
(54 ) Miami Dolphins (from Colts) –Barrett Jones, OL, Alabama
The Dolphins have multiple questions along the line, I’m sure Jones could answer at least one of them.
(55) Green Bay Packers-Jesse Williams, DL, Alabama
Value. Could end up in the first round.
(56)Seattle Seahawks-Corey Lemoiner, DL/OLB, Auburn
This is a guy I think could play multiple positions on defense for the Seahawks.
(58) Houston Texans-Chris Harper, WR, Kansas State
Seems like a guy who is really rising. Has had a great pre-draft process and has been very dependable for Kansas State. The Texans could use a reliable No. 2 across from Andre Johnson to take some pressure off of him. This is probably earlier than where he'll actually go, but there are always surprises.
(59) Denver Broncos –Logan Ryan, CB, Rutgers
Poor secondary play sent Peyton Manning and the Broncos home earlier than they should have in the playoffs.
(60) New England Patriots-Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU
Ron Ninkovach is a nice player, but could be upgraded.
(61) Atlanta Falcons-Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin
Not sure where his league value is. Mayock has him as the second best running back.
(62) San Fran 49ers-John Jenkins, DL, Georgia
They’ll teach him to hold to clear space for Aldon Smith.
(63) Baltimore Ravens-Eric Reid, S, LSU
Solid player and a definite upgrade over what they have at safety now.